Good Tuesday, everybody. It’s another absolutely amazing weather day across Kentucky and we have one more mild day before a pretty dramatic change. This change can bring the first flakes of the season into parts of the region by Friday,
Highs today make a run at 70 in the west with mid and upper 60s across most areas. Skies will be partly sunny.
Highs on Wednesday are back into the 60s on a strong southwest wind. That’s ahead of clouds thickening during the afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A broken line of showers and storms develops along and ahead of this in western Kentucky. That line then races across the state Wednesday evening into the wee hours of Thursday.
A few of these storms may even be strong or locally severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a low-end risk for severe weather for parts of Kentucky…
A few gusty showers will be noted behind this system for Thursday as temps drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. This won’t be all day stuff by any means.
The upper low then drops in Thursday night and Friday, bringing the chance for a few flakes to central and eastern Kentucky. The best chance in seeing some flake action will be in the east and southeast with the high mountains of southeastern Kentucky. Watch that plume off Lake Michigan throw a little juice in our direction…
I still like what the GFS Ensembles are doing in showing the best chance for a few flakes being in the east…
Cold air controls the weekend with temps averaging well below normal. Seasonable temps take us into early next week before a milder surge shoots in.
As we look longer range toward Thanksgiving Week, this is the time frame we’ve been discussing for a possible switch toward a more sustainable winter setup that would only strengthen into early December.
Many of the indices I look are now coming around to showing the potential for the colder look for Thanksgiving Week.
For cold in our region, you typically want at least a few of these signals… -EPO, -NAO, -AO and a + PNA.
Most medium range models and ensembles have all four heading into turkey week…
With those signatures showing up on the EURO, here’s what that run was seeing to begin Thanksgiving Week…
The GFS is seeing this, too…
The AI version of the GFS is even more emphatic…
That begins what the EURO Weeklies continues to suggest is a good start to Meteorological Winter with blocking from Canada through the Arctic. Watch how these troughs sweep through south of all that in this animation from early Thanksgiving Week to Christmas Eve…
The average snowfall map through Christmas Eve from that run comprised of 101 different members….
Have I mentioned this massive El Nino is not having the typical impact as other Super El Ninos? Ok, maybe I’ve mentioned it a few times since summer.
I’ll have another update later today. Have a great day and take care.
