Good afternoon everyone. I don’t have a ton of time right now, but I wanted to get out a first call map and talk about the weekend winter storm that will have a major impact on the region.
One low is going to be working into the Ohio Valley before giving way to a secondary low across the Appalachian Mountains and mid atlantic states. The GFS Ensembles are now more realistic looking and show something similar to what I foresee happening…
Here is what that means for us…
– Rain will increase west to east Saturday. This may start out as a touch of frozen precip in some areas.
– Rain will quickly transition to snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning… again from west to east as cold air pushes in.
– After the initial transition to snow behind the front diminishes… a potent backlash snow will set up Sunday into Sunday night… especially central and east.
– Temps will plunge meaning we have to watch for a quick freeze up from the prior rains. Readings Sunday will fall all day long and be in the upper teens and low 20s by evening.
– Winds will be strong as gusts top 30mph. This will create blowing snow Sunday into Monday and below zero wind chills.
How about the snowfall? These backlash snows Sunday into Sunday night should be rather potent and the NAM is showing this quite nicely…
Snow showers and squalls would then continue into Monday. The snow ratios will be very high during this time and this would help add to the fluff factor and higher totals.
I have put together a first call map and let me be honest… I am going a conservative route since we are still 3 days away. The numbers I have out can easily be higher. Right now… here is the 3 days away call…
One thing to really keep in mind… it doesn’t matter if you get one inch or 6 inches… the impact of this snow is going to be significant. Factor in the wind and bitter cold temps and you have the recipe for a major winter weather event.
I have another update coming later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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funny how these storms always start out big and then fizzle. Never the other way around except for the infamous dusting.
We down here are confused. We have this page coming up and also a winter storm alert page coming up, both have today’s date on the maps. Confusion, this one has 1-3 other one 6-8. BIG difference. Can you clarify this as an entire school is anxious, sad, and thrilled
looks alot like last weeks snow map….maybe it will go up.. im in central ky and i would b happy with 4-6 …on another note.lets hope the bengals can lose the rest of their games and get a number one draft pick.but im sure they will screw that up
Fair first call, CB.
Pat, where ae you at and where does it show 6-8″? Looks like far east has that on CB’s map.
I say forget the models, technicalities,etc..lets do this the way our ancestors did.. old timers said increased cardinal picking for food sign of snow…and if snow hangs around on sunny days, its hanging around for another one…now Ive seen tons of cardinals…and only got maybe 2″ of snow, and its been sunny for 2 days and still snow laying …so go figure!!, but im betting on at least enough snow to make the ground white…LOL..
Come on jet stream……….! We need something over around western ky!!!!! When will this thing get sampled??????
A little surprised Chris made a call, since the models are still in total disarray. 24 hours from now they will probably have a completely different solution. Here’s hoping the low goes south…
Only logical thing would be CB is hedging and really thinks there could be more, but is being cautious. That is the only thing that seems to make sense to me anyway.
That is unless CB is now livin’ on thu’ edddge! 🙂
I am with You Tim!!! I have noticed the same thing over here in the Tropics!! 🙂
Well, I am sure Chris is using the data now out and available. If the live data changes something, which is a good possibility, then he will adjust the totals up, down, or erase them altogether . Depending on what occurs.
I think Chris is down playing a bit. He is good at nailing these things so I won’t be surprised if his totals do go up. He doesn’t live and die with one model run , but looks at the trends. I say,”Let it snow!”
I am in Harlan County and for some reason I cannot see the map on this computer I am using. Can you tell me what it is showing for Harlan County? Thanks and God bless!!!
I’m ok with Chris downplaying the storm totals right now until it gets closer. But, If you are going purely on the latest data and add up the QPF totals when we are on the cold side of the storm, it adds up to at least .8″…correct me if i’m wrong. But, didn’t Chris say the ratios with this storm could be as high as 40:1 at points? Let’s be conservative and say it never gets over 10:1…isn’t that STILL 8″ of snow?? IDK, maybe I’m completely misunderstanding these charts and the info Chris gave us, lol!
Accumulation maps….here is where the real fun blogging begins!
Mark , it looks like Harlan County is just inside the 3-8 inch line.
There is still the potential for a decent snowfall, considering the backlash snowfalls will be strong, like Chris said.
The latest model data he has put up looks good to me—-it shows a good evolution of the storm, the comma head, and the wraparound—it looks like something that “could” play out.
I assume winter weather advisories and/or winter storm watches would go up by tomorrow afternoon or VERY early Saturday at the latest, if conditions warrant those alerts being posted.
mark….your on the fence of 2-4″ and 3-8″…
Thanks! Wow, that is a big difference in totals. I guess it is due to the inconsistency with the models right now. I would be happy with 3″ of snow – and thrilled with 8! LOL
Thanks! Guess we will have to wait and see. But it makes me feel better to know we are definitely getting something! I guess I better go ahead and prepare myself to be teaching into June again this year!
Yes, BUT it’s going to be in the 40s for the next two days (heck, it’s above freezing out there right now!), AND it’s going to rain pretty hard Saturday…so even when the snow starts flying a lot of it’s going to go to waste before accumulation begins. Plus, it’s extremely rare to see snow ratios above 20:1 in Kentucky.
I propose we petition that a new GREATLAKE would be dug around the OHIO RIVER SOMEWHERE..so we could ALL get HAMMERED…lol… with lake effect snow…:)….sorry tommy your gonna have to move were diggin in your back yard…lol
I have also noticed a LOT of birds picking my Aristocrat Pear Tree fruit for food. These are Robins & the round black birds (don’t know what they’re called…)This has been going on for a the past few days now. Wonder if they know something the models DON’T! Lol 🙂
This event is another reason not to model worship. The GFS continues to prove itself to be a terrible winter forecasting model in the medium range. It is interesting to note the GFS is apparently spectacular in the Southern hemisphere. Joe Bastardi says that is because of the high amount of ocean space. The GFS is great in regards to that for whatever reason.
I’ve been skeptical of this storm because our climo doesn’t often support big Decemeber snowstorms. This would have been out of character. Dt, at stormvista, also laid out a pretty good case why this storm wouldn’t go as far east as the GFS predicted. There is no 50/50 low acting as a block.
I propose Tim gets started digging said “Great Lake” right away! 😉
Though this system is not the same type, the infamous dusting of 98 started ahead of several days of mid 40 temps, followed by heavy wind driven rain for about six hours, followed by a sudden change to snow. It fell so hard, it insulated the gound and the snow kept piling up.
Had that system had the same cold air as this or 93, people would have been snowed in for days. Temps were in the 30’s and then the snow “quickly” melted with a warm-up a few days later.
The NAM is coming out now. Will be interesting to see, though I believe we all know the track it will probably take, but we shall see if any cold air can catch some of the heavy precipitation. But I am banking on it.
I meant “I am not banking on it” sorry
Is anybody really surprised that the storm started trending north. This is the typical gfs scenario. Until I see the nam & the gfs come into more agreement, I am not going to count on the backside of a low or lake Michigan moisture bringing us a significant snowfall. Remember long distant comp. models are fools gold.
has anyone looked at the accuweather forecast for next week — London is giving temps pushing 60 degrees … gotta love the weather in this state; oh yea – accuweather is only giving an inch of accum … it is all a waiting game!!!
12z Euro looks terrible way to far to the North this looks like a bust for KY as far as decent snows. Not ready to throw in the towel but my towel is in my throwing hand.
Currently it looks like all NWS databases are down.. Anybody else having trouble?
Mine is working just fine. JKL just updated their AFD and it’s painfully obvious that they still have no idea what’s going to happen.
u guys know that there is another winter storm potential for next week right? possibly the 15th through the 17th
That’s fine, but I’m tired of waiting. I would like both to hit central ohio….hold on SLAM central ohio
looks like you’re from Ohio. I live in Indianapolis and find this a useful weather blog. I want a lot of snow always. There is still a lot of winter left so there are a lot of chances yet to come so next week looks like the next.
The NAM spins a secondary low, very close to the scenario Christ mentions,
Mike, I love this blog. It is where I come for all of my weather needs. I almost transferred from Rio Grande University for music to, Ohio University for Meteorology. I am more than likely going to finish my degree in music and then pursue a degree in meteorology. But you’re very right this is a very very useful blog.
Amen to that last statement!!!!!
This storm could still come together, but I’m thinking 1-2 inches mayyyybe 3 for Southcentral/Southeastern KY.
Wait, 98 was only supposed to be a dusting????
Ok, we all love CB, but he’s not quite the Son of God! LOL!
Ok, the NAM has me confused. At hour 66 it has 3 different lows. It shows heavy precipitation in central Kentucky with the 540 freezing line working its way into eastern Kentucky, which would lead to the thought of heavy snow. Yet surface temps are near 40 degrees, so no snowfall accumulation.
Yep, Bailey’s moving on up!
LOL Touche’ Neil.
But yeah, 18z NAM actually looks a lot like it’s 12z run. It still confuses me though. Don’t think it’s going to turn out like it’s trying to show.
1 to 3 early call for Frankfort area. At 3 inches, this would put Frankfort at 8 inches for the month. I have seen entire winter seasons with less. 15 inches a normal winter total, half way there & officially not winter yet! 🙂 Bring it Chris!
LOL I just seen that. I have been writing a papers on Christianity, and i could not count how many times i have written “Christ” in the last week. I guess it has become a habit now,
If it snows hard enough it would start accumulating and likely continue to accumulate
🙁 I think the blog is causing me to be bi-polar! LOL One minute Im on cloud9, the next Im depressed and down in the dumps:( But I continue to do it to myself! Why, Ali? Why?
Here is the wrf click the animation, as it is similar, and you can see the surface freeze line working in, and when it moves in.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_18z/wrfloop.html
Hey! I just caught this: CB had been talking of a winter storm threat, but now the wording appears to have adjusted (as it should):
“Factor in the wind and bitter cold temps and you have the recipe for a major winter weather event”
Seems we are slowly transitioning wording… Smooth as butta’ 🙂 😉
Yep, looks like maybe a few inches of blowy stuff- similar to last event but more moisture falling in the form of liquid stuff.
Snack city if this puppy had cold air with it. Then again, if we had the cold air, we would not have the heavy moisture 😉 Those two things still apparently are not getting along too well in this area.
Can’t we all just get along? 🙂
Come on cold air and heavy moistyre, have a big hug and work together.
You must be either young or out of the area in 98 😉
Several mets called “dusting” even during the 11pm news that night- while it was already snowing. Comic gold.
Meant “smack” city, but if snowed in, most of was probably would just be eating snacks after a few days….
In this case, I will have some wheat bread with BUTTA’ 🙂
Just messing around 😉
With all the fun we have had with these runs they are about over. Starting with the 00 runs and primarily the 06 runs, the models will have some live data to work with. Meaning they will know a whole lot more about this system than they currently do.
That is very cool.
you aint no fun..lol..
Yes, a dusting lol…good memories. I wouldn’t mind that happening again. I do realize ratios don’t hardly go above 20:1. But i think even at 10:1 and the wet ground we could still get descent amounts with the rapid temp drop causing things to freeze rather quickly. Just my 2 pennies worth.
NWS in JKL is forecasting light snow accum.. for sunday,sunday night and monday for my area..
Tom, when will the next model runs come out?
just heard WKYT’S SAM DICK had his surgery today and came through successfully…Our thoughts and prayers goes out to him and his Family…
the 18z gfs actually look realistic if u ask ROLO.
knmhikh hy
and as i post that BAILEY TWEETS to back me up
eveing song is from EDDIE GRANT
ELETRIC AVENUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/avnloop.html
Check out this map, it shows what Chris is talking about. Click animate, or scroll from the hour 42 through hour 72
Anyone thinking we might have a shot at a white Christmas this year?
I remember that dusting well. I have never seen flakes so big! They were beautiful. Talk about a winter wonderland!!!! Everything shut down. It was great.
oh and about the post last nite,
I would gladly bee the guy to pull the trigger. and im the guy that would fall on the grenade for the blog too.
im a cross betwwen John Bulishi in animal house and Dog thr bounty hunter!!!
Looking at the ensembles there is a dramatic shift toward the mid Atlantic low.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTUS_15z/srefloop.html
so? what does that mean for us snow lovers in kentucky?
Quick question to all? Do the 850MB lines represent SURFACE temperatures?
I know the forecast is not set in stone, but i was wondering if this is going to be a wet heavy snow? Last december we got a snow that started out as rain then changed to flakes as big as my hand and we were without power for a week.
I’m going for 12″+ for eastern extreme SE KY
Its looking great… I’ve got my big daddy hat on
Oh yea and all my east ky friends.. join the east ky weather forums by clickin my name its gonna be cool!
No
Ryan, WXman was referribg to Surface temps earlier. Which charts show the surface temps?
Well if that holds, then as Chris tweeted, the rain may turn to snow faster, resulting in more accumulation.
Seems like a big let down as always 🙁
Very doubtful the ground will thaw in the bluegrass. Temps MAY have reached freezing briefly, but still lots of snow on the ground. The fact that there is still snow after 3 straight sunny days shows exactly how cold the ground is. The rain may thaw the upper couple cm’s but it will remain frozen below and quickly refreeze Saturday night.
Considering that the 06 and 18Z runs have had an east bias all week…I highly doubt those solutions are correct. Sorry, but until we can get some serious blocking aloft, the lakes solution is probably more correct.
I like Chris’s latest tweet. My thoughts are that we get some type of advisory, maybe issued Sat morning for Sunday. What I would really like is a WSW, but I don’t think this time around.
Well to be honest all the runs are subject to change because the next set of runs will include live data. The models will have accurate real time information and all of our questions should be answered over the next few runs. Primarily the next 06 should have the full story so to speak.
This latest accum. map looks good for central Ky., IF it were to happen.http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
Chris,
Will any of the precip on the radar tonight make it to the ground or will it mainly be verga?
My compture pulled up kyweathercenter storm alert and it showed that map. Upon closer look we saw that although the map had today’s date, the post was last years. I am assuming ( yes I know what they say about that) that there was some glitch in my computer to cause that to happen. Back now to the 1-3 but dang I would like more.
Love reading the comments,guess lets cut to the chase. We hope the Somerset Dome doesn’t hold true and we could get a good ( more than 4″) snow down here. Seems it goes all around us. We are trying to live good down here. Come on chris give me hope
I’m not sure if you’re new to the site and if you’re aware, but MJ is actually a Met for the NWS in Louisville. Or at least he was last year. I’m assuming he hasn’t changed jobs.
Well,I’m starting to get a little excited here in Ohio. I try not to let myself get to worked up until about 2-3 days before the event is supposed to happen. There’s nothing like a big disappointment when you wait 7days and all you get is rain.
Considering that the NWS never catches on to a system until it’s over us he’s probably not spot on. Why do you think we all look on this blog for our weather, Chris is the most logical.
Did I say he is wrong, did I make some sort of refutable claim, or did I simply make response; and I am sure a meteorologist would agree that models with live data are better than those without. All I did was basically echo Chris based on what some ensembles were stating. But that is why I worded my response ” if things hold” I did not say this was set in stone. And I am sure he came by to offer a professional opinion. So I am sorry but I cannot find the purpose of your post.
Assuming that you’re not talking to me because i was siding with you. I would totally agree with you. He was passing by with his professional opinion.
No, i was responding to Justin. I think Justin must have thought I was disagreeing with MJ.
No, not at all Tom. I’m sorry you thought that. I just wanted you guys to know that MJ was a met at the NWS. Trust me, we’ve all had our jawing back and forth with MJ. Just wanted you guys to know since I’ve never seen you around here before. Wasn’t trying to attack or anything. Sorry.
The Quad Cities NWS out of Iowa mentions in their Forecast discussion that this storm is a 1 in 1000 happening and models aren’t designed for it. Explains the huge fluctuation in models.
I know this doesn’t have to do with Kentucky but even the Indianapolis news is only saying 1-3″ of snow for central Indiana. Looks like the heavy snow will go north of Chicago.
i enjoy the uncertainty, thrill and pure fun leading up to a possible big event!! i am no met, nor do i know the first thing about reading the maps, so i come here for it..chris’s word comes first with the knowledgable regulars a second. BUT, i am absolutely worn out from this, i am just about to pull my hair out :)..i get very excited and let down with every run and i’m about to the point of this: with the “old school” snows, many were “forcasted” with the “old school” approach, which was, open a door or look out a window, and what you see is what you got!!!!!! 🙂 lol, i’m in clay co. and want a thumper like everyone else, but i too am about to go bi-polar because of this…come on chris, give us some good news in the next update…:*
I have a sister there in Indy actually she lives in Greenwood not far from Indy she hates snow I told her I would glady take it lol.
Hope to read more updates on your site soon