Good afternoon everyone. On a snowy first day of December… it makes for a perfect time to talk about a new and exciting partner for the blog. Ky Home Performance and Kentucky Weather Center have joined forces to spread the word about how Kentuckians can benefit from a wonderful new program. I am lending my name to the project and will be doing radio and tv ads for Ky Home Performance in the coming weeks and months.
What exactly s this program all about and what can it do for you?
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With a very wintry period ahead of us… this would be a good time to check them out and see how they can help you save some money.
Some quick headlines about the weather…
– Snow showers and flurries will wind down later this afternoon into the evening. Any snow shower that hangs on after the sun goes down, could slicken up some roads.
– A streak of light snow and flurries will arrive on the scene late Thursday into early Friday.
– The weekend system has a lot of potential. The NAM has to much warm air advection as usual and the GFS is just sniffing it out. I still expect this clipper to track from Missouri into Tennessee. This would lay down a swath of accumulating snows to the north of the track Saturday into early Sunday. Could this lead to our first “threat mode” of the season?
– Wow! Cold and snow chances will rule from the weekend through next week.
I will have another update later this evening so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_084l.gif
if you live in northern ky gotta like the looks of that map :D. should be all snow if thats all snow someone gets 6 to 8 inches in nky/sw ohio
That map looks good for cky also!!!
nam is overdone on qpf. That is one of the lessons learned quick in the national wxchallenge. around .25 qpf looks reasonable now. Also remember we still have a warm ground in place and some of the snow will be in the day. For now though A 1-3 snowfall from southern Indiana into northern and far eastern kentucky is entirely possibile.
Yep, the NAM’s QPF has been on the high side this summer and fall. As long as the surface low goes through KY…accumulating snows will be north of the state. The low HAS to go through MO and TN for us to get it.
Mitch what does all this mean for Esatern Ky?
It’s totally a moot point, as both the NAM and GFS keep surface temps. well above freezing the entire duration of the event.
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN SET UP FEATURES A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A POLAR VORTEX SETTING UP OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LOW IS TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE BEGINNING AND INTO MID WEEK.
THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PINNING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
CLIPPER AND HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT. THIS IS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EURO. THEREFORE…WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY AND
BETTER TRACK RECORD…WILL NUDGE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE EURO.
THE FIRST CONCERN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. A
COLDER AIRMASS APPEARS TO ALREADY BE IN PLACE AND WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BEING 2 KFT OFF THE GROUND BY PRECIP ONSET…WILL GO
WITH AN ALL SNOW EVENT AT THIS POINT.
AT ONSET IN THE VERTICAL…THE LIFT…MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT LINED UP AND DISORGANIZED FOR ANY BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SO
WILL KEEP MAX ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVEN AT ONE INCH WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MORE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
CLIPPER…NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT A PERSISTENT BAND OF POPS ALONG
THE EASTERN RANGES DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS.
Note the fact that the NWS is going with the EURO on this one, because it has been the best tracking this system.
I agree with WXman with the temp are to warm to put down any snow this weekend. Temps will drop enough for wrap around flurries on Mon-Tue from I-64 & points north. No more than what we’ve seen so far this year..
UKMET and the Japanese model keep it cold enough for snow in the LEX area this weekend. NAM and GFS don’t. It’s a classic model showdown. From my experience, the NAM model typically does better with systems coming in on northwest flow. We’ll see..
without going into too much science which it seems many on here like to do i just like to say i like the setup for the cincinnati area on this one. i think temps will stay cold enough and the gfs itself is showing up to 1/2 liquid. this is a strong clipper not to be ignored. my early weenie/ametur call is for 3-6 inches for my area here on the ohio river.
latest nam keeps 540 line south of nky for entire event.
The new nam run appears to be close to that MO/TN track. Though still the northern part of the state would be favored for snow accumulations. This run could be getting a better handle of low level cold in place. Though with clippers the usual trend is north with the track with time.
folks we just had an event with super duper warm ground temps and surface temps above 32, the snow accumulated.
EXACTLY about 1/4” on the ground right now and it was sticking to 275 in boone county today. our main concern isnt the weather 2 weeks ago its keeping the 540 line to our south.
i just want perfect north to open, Lincoln wants to relieve some finals week stress and go snowboarding!!!
Yeah it is a bit cooler than the past runs. Like I said, in northwest flow I’ll put my money on the NAM right now. It performed great last season with these systems.
latest gfs also keeps 32 line south of nky but further north than nam. has the low really digging.
my first call. like i said i have seen clippers really produce. we had one here in february that dropped 7.5”.
http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/cal76.jpg
HAHA……..Chris said THUMPER! Chas, Tim, Vinny, Rolo, Debbie, Shawna, Crystal…..what do you think he means by that hehehehe
id drop that 1 inch margin down 50 miles, infact id drop everything but your highest numbers down a little.
1-3 looks good in the louisville, lexington, covington and ashland areas now for this event. lesser amounts south with mixing and warming. I sense chris will be getting upslope fever as well for next week, could see several days not reach 32*F.
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