Good Wednesday everyone and welcome to winter. December first marks the first day of meteorological winter that runs through February. Right on cue… old man winter is making his presence felt and this may be the tip of the iceberg… pun intended.

November ended with heavy rains causing some local high water issues. This marked an incredible turnaround in our water fortunes from prior months as we finished up the month well above normal in the rain category. Our wet pattern is giving way to a wintry one and one that should carry us all the way through December.

The blog was on board the early start to winter train a long time ago and the train has now left the station. We have snow showers and flurries across much of the state today and a few areas can get in on a coating of the white stuff. Some areas in the east can see a local amount push an inch if we can get a few bursts of heavier snow showers. Some slick spots are certainly possible today… especially this morning.

Track the snow showers and flurries here…



High temps today will generally hold near freezing across most of central and eastern Kentucky as the west sees mid and upper 30s. Gusty winds will make it feel like the temp is in the low and mid 20s. Brrr!

This is the start of a VERY wintry pattern that has a chance to deliver several rounds of snow to go along with a wicked stretch of cold temps. A deep trough is going to take up residence across the eastern half of this country for the next few weeks and will send cold air all the way to the Gulf of Mexico by next week.  The pattern is reminding me of December 2000. Anyone remember the constant cold shots and frequent snows from that month?

The first system to watch for is the weakest of the bunch. It will roll in here later Thursday into Friday with a streak of light snow and flurries. We will have to see if it has enough juice to lay down a light snowfall… but I can see where some areas could get in on a small accumulation. The GFS Ensembles have a good handle on this…



The weekend system continues to pique my interest. This is the one I have been saying the models were likely too weak with. The GFS has been coming around to what the other models have been sniffing out and that is a decent system diving in from the northwest Saturday and Sunday.

The track on this low should take it into Missouri then eastward across Tennessee Saturday then off the Carolina coast Sunday morning. Along and north of the track… a band of snow will be likely with accumulations a real possibility. To the south of the track… a mix of rain and snow would then end as snow late Saturday into early Sunday.

The GFS Ensembles are just now really getting on board with this…



Other models like the Canadian and European are a bit stronger with this system…

Canadian Model


European Model



Both models would lay down a swatch of accumulating snows across our part of the world. This is one to watch!

Take a look at the Sunday map above and you will see a setup that is very cold and has winds blowing across the wide open Great Lakes and aimed right at us. That would likely combine with weak disturbances to produce widespread snow showers and squalls that can lay down a daily snowfall from Sunday into the middle of next week. The GFS Ensembles show something similar…



That is an impressive setup and one I have seen produce some good snows into parts of our region. That deep trough also acts to suppress the storm the models had been advertising for the middle of the week. Still… would you complain if you can get daily snows out of it?

In addition to the snow… temps would be well below normal. Highs could stay in the 20s for a few days with lows dipping into the low and mid teens.

As I said… winter is starting early this year. I will have an update later today so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.