Good Monday to one and all. Make sure your seat belts are fastened tightly as we have a wild weather ride ahead of us this week. A massive dip in the jet stream is going to engulf the eastern half of the country as the pattern takes on a winter look. Throw in a tropical system being entrained into the mix and you have the recipe for some mid October extreme weather.

We really have a ton of stuff to talk about, so let’s get cracking and start with the weather of today.

A weak front is stalling out across the state and will bring a few clouds and an isolated shower chance. Winds will continue to run on the gusty side as we see a cooler day than our toasty Sunday. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the north to low 70s in the south.

This takes us into a massive pattern change that gets started Tuesday and takes our weather maps into a very wintry look. A big time surge of cold air will be diving into the central states on Tuesday and will push a front into the region. This front will have a wave of low pressure developing along it and this will bring an increase in showers and even some thunder.

The whole process on Tuesday is slowing down just a bit and this should allow for an even greater temp gradient setting up from west to east. Parts of southeastern Kentucky may flirt with 80 while the far west and northwestern sections hang in the upper 40s and low 50s.

The front will then slowly push to the east Tuesday night and that’s when this comes into play…



This tropical disturbance across the eastern Gulf of Mexico has a chance to become a named storm. The trough digging into the east will pick this thing up and further energize an already juiced up storm.

This storm will then merge with he wave of low pressure working across the eastern Ohio Valley to form a powerhouse low in the mid atlantic states by Wednesday. This is a rough idea of what Wednesday would look like…



The low would then work north-northwest into Wednesday night. That should put down a swath of heavy rains across the eastern half of the state with the potential for a couple inches of water to fall. The new NAM agrees with this…



We will have to keep a close eye on that setup as that could cause some local high water issues at some point. This storm should also produce more in the way of gusty winds as MUCH colder air moves in.

Highs from Wednesday into Thursday are likely to stay in the chilly 40s. That cold air will hang tough for the rest of the week. The European Model…



The northwesterly wind flow into Thursday should keep clouds and scattered showers going across much of the region. This setup is likely to produce some snows across the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains. If this same thing were to happen a little later down the road… this would be a major snow for a whole lot of folks.

As our skies clear Thursday night into Friday… overnight lows are going to tank. Friday and Saturday may both start with freezing temps with some upper 20s possible.

I told you it was about to get busy! Another update comes your way later today, so be sure to check back. Have a great Monday and take care.