Good Saturday everyone as our long holiday weekend rolls on. Your friendly weather dude has come down with a bug and isn’t feeling the best in the world. That said… the blog never misses a day, so here I am.

I will keep this rather brief and hit the high points of the pattern.

As you are well aware… the November weather pattern has totally flipped from the past several months. We are now in a hyper active setup and this looks to continue well into the winter. It is growing more wintry by the day and we should have a lot of winter to talk about in December.

To put things in perspective… take a look at the recent rainfall verses the rainfall from the prior months…

                  Past 4 Days    Aug-Oct
Lexington:     2.12″              2.43″

Louisville:     3.22″              3.22″

Covington:    4.15″              3.19″

This wet pattern looks to continue next week as another storm moves our way with more heavy rains. It is safe to say mother nature is trying to make up for lost time. Will she do that with the temps as well? For the next 6 weeks… I think that is the case as a cold pattern takes hold.

After a nice weekend… the rains will move into western Kentucky Monday then work from west to east Tuesday. The GFS likes another 1″-2″ to fall across the entire region…



There are a lot of similarities between this setup and the one we just had. That said… there are some big differences as well. Cold air will sweep eastward quickly across the region Tuesday with the cold rushing to catch up to the back edge of the rain shield to switch it over to a period of snow. The difference lies in the fact we have much more energy diving into the base of the trough. This should crank up a secondary low pressure along the front somewhere just to our east late Tuesday into Wednesday. Where that happens will have a big impact on the weather around here as it would then throw moisture back into the cold air leading to a better chance for snow. This is especially the case across the east and southeast where we should see the highest snowfall threat. The GFS Ensembles continue to point in this direction…



Even if the low develops too far east to throw much snow our way… snow showers and flurries would be a good bet into Wednesday as a pocket of very cold air moves in. We will continue to watch this to see how it evolves on the models in the coming days.

There may be another system rolling in by the end of next week into next weekend. I am thinking the models are too flat with this system, so let’s see what happens.

This is also about the same time the GFS stars in the late night risque tv show “Models Gone Wild”. It develops an ocean storm and backs it westward toward New England and develops it into a monster as it does. I have to admit the chances of something like that happening are pretty slim… but the amount of blocking showing up would give it a punchers chance of happening. You can see that here…



That’s fun to look at and IF it were to happen… BIG IF… it would unleash some nasty cold and frequent snows into our region. Hmmmm… the new GFS Ensembles show something similar.

Wow… for someone sick I sure don’t know when to shut up. ha

I will update through the weekend so check back. Have a great Saturday and take care.