Good Sunday everyone. Our loooooooong holiday weekend is about to come to and end and the return trip from Grandma’s house is looking good. This calm weather day is a far cry from how the weekend started and is only a break between systems as we have another big rainmaker ahead. Yes… this should have some wintry weather on the backside of it for the opening day of December.

Travelers today will encounter some great weather for much of our region. Skies will be mainly sunny with temps in the low and mid 40s in the east and lower 50s west.

The active weather pattern kicks back in later Monday into Tuesday as low pressure rides up the Mississippi River valley into the western Great Lakes. This will pull up a ton of moisture northward into the region leading to widespread rain and even some embedded thunderstorms. The models continue to crank out 1″-2″ rain totals…



A strong cold front will rapidly sweep eastward across the region Tuesday. The cold air coming behind this front is pretty stout and is likely to catch up to the back edge of the rain shield… especially across the east. This means we are likely to see the rain switch over to a period of light snow. A wave of low pressure will develop JUST to our east Tuesday night and Wednesday and we will have to see exactly where this takes place. No matter the wave… there is a good amount of energy swinging through here Wednesday and this should lead to snow showers and flurries. Here is the GFS transition…



That is a setup that can lead to some light accumulations across the eastern half of the state.

Wednesday will be cold with highs around freezing and winds making it feel much colder than that. With some flakes in the air (if not on the ground) , cold temps and blustery winds… this will mark a very wintry start to December.

Beyond that… things are likely to get VERY interesting across the eastern half of the country and that includes us. There will be a system diving in from the west/northwest next weekend with rain and/or snow with colder air to follow. I still think the models may be underplaying this system a bit.

Ok… its time to stop pulling punches here. I have been alluding to the fact I think December has a ton of potential for cold and snow around here. The week of December 6th is a week that is taking on a look of providing just that. As a matter of fact… some extreme solutions are on the table that can lead to a major winter storm across much of the eastern half of the country.

All the models are sniffing this out and the pattern is favorable for a big system by the middle of the month. The Canadian model for December 7th will have you licking your snow chops…



I am not saying that is exactly right… just that something like that is on the table given the pattern I am seeing that week into the middle of the month.

Fun times ahead!

Have a great Sunday and take care.