Good Monday everyone. Today is usually a day when many of us have a long Thanksgiving holiday weekend hangover. Between the days off work and the tryptophan from the turkey still racing through our veins… we need a little excitement to get keep us awake. It looks like mother nature is going to provide us with a weather wake up call in the coming days.
Low pressure will be winding up to our west later today on it’s way toward the western Great Lakes for Tuesday. This will pull in some deep moisture ahead of a strong cold front that will swing in here during the same time. Showers will increase later today across the west and a few of those will work across the state later tonight. A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front and will come racing eastward Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Heavy rains will be likely with this line and most of the state will pick up a general 1″-2″ of rainfall. The GFS looks the part…
That is another good soaker that will push our rain totals for November into the above normal range for just about everyone. That will be an impressive feat considering how dry things have been the past several months.
Cold air will come racing in behind the front Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning and this is likely to change the rain over to a period of snow. This will especially be the case the farther east you live. Snow showers and flurries would then swoop in here for the day Wednesday.
While this isn’t a big deal… I decided to put together a map to show how I expect it to all play out in terms of the flakes…
I will update that a few more times between now and then so make sure you check back.
Here is the GFS snowfall map for those interested…
Wednesday will see temps struggling to get much above freezing for most of central and eastern Kentucky. Gusty winds will make it feel like its in the low and middle 20s for much of the day.
The action may not stop there as I am keeping my eye on a sneaky little system for later Thursday into Friday. This may bring a period of light snow and flurries in here during this time. The European model has been gung ho on this for a few runs now and it is beginning to show up on the GFS, as well.
In the longer run… we find some issues with how the models are handling things. Shocking! Some models like the European bring a system across our region this weekend into early next week. This would be a mix/rain to snow setup for this area. The GFS does not have this feature and instead tries to bundle everything into a big storm for the early and middle part of next week. While I think there is a very good chance we get a big storm across the eastern part of the US toward the middle and end of next week.. I don’t think it comes about the way the GFS is showing it.
Here is how the European looks for both systems…
The possible big daddy…
This should be fun to watch play out. As I said… mother nature is going to going to keep us awake a lot in the coming weeks.
Have a great Monday and take care.
Select Page
Choo-Choo! The snow train is warming up and ready to pull out of the station!
Thanks Chris!
I like it when you call me big poppa, throw your hands in the air if your a true playa.
looking forward to seeing some snow!!
I found this on Wkyt’s sister station out of Knoxville WVLT 8. they have their winter outlook on video if your interested in seeing what they are saying…pretty much what everyone else is saying…and that is, we better hope for a snowy Dec. Because spring more than likely is coming VERY EARLY this yr.
http://www.volunteertv.com/weather
Chris do you think it is possible that some of these models are showing crazy things because they assume Global warming? Don’t get me wrong I believe that there is Global weather changes, but not in the way allot of scientist are trying to portray it.
yea this time next week the blog will pop for the first time this season, been very calm till now, but u come back next mondaaaaaaaay and 1030 and as ole JR says, BUISNESS is PICKING UP!!very good signs this early on as in years past we have been well in to the new year before ALOT of action as far as cold and snow chances to amount to anything.
Wind fields continue to look impressive tonight. When do we ever have massive instability during the cold weather months? Almost never. Yet, we still get severe weather damage. That’s because of systems with impressive wind fields. Might see some storms tonight…
that 00z euro run is great for southern ky snow fans. A more detailed look of the run shows an ideal track along the gulf coast the 540 line in the tenn valley and plenty of gulf mositure moving northward perhaps on the order of over .5 pqf for the event. surface temps are either at or below freezing for the entire event as well.
just add in the neverfail northwest trend and etown to maysville back towards i71 gets the good stuff!
being in the sweetspot in the 7-8 day range is the ultimate heartbreak. how many times has lexington even been within 72 hours of a big one only to get a mix,ice, or rain?
i remeber mets were calling for 6-10 inches for lexington for the early december 2005 storm that ended up being a solid snowstorm for northern ky. that particular event was actually showing the heaviest snows on the models for the nashville area about 5 days out. i think lexington got mainly rain with the changeover never being able to fully occur.
One winter I was in the North West portion of New York, a true snow sweet spot every year and one of the snowiest places in the world,outside of the mountain places. That year I seen over 200 inches of snow. One system brought 50 inches. So if you are a snow lover, you should try that portion of the USA one winter.
actually moron would be a better fit…
Here is a link to the average snow fall of the state of New York. Check out the averages for the north west portion.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/snowseason.html
That was not necessary of you to say. I was trying to spice things up here on the website, because no one had posted. Boom. Roasted.
Did I miss Chris’s winter weather forecast for this winter. Thought he said it would be out the week of Thanksgiving
Whenever I hear this song, I think of “A Headbangers Ball:Its a Rap!!” by Robert Goulett, aka Will Ferrell.
“Goulett!!!”
It did look good…until the 12Z run came in. Here is what needs to happen for us to get a good storm.
1. West coast ridge needs to extend well north to Alaska.
2. Need to keep the low over SE Canada.
3. Northern low coming out of central Canada needs to phase with the southern stream Low.
Sunday’s 00Z/12Z runs was hinting at this. The Euro is showing the bias where it keeps the southern low over the SW US too long. While the GFS bias of crushing everything is clearly seen in the 12Z run. Need to give it about another 3-4 days to figure things out.
Dude has been sick and the active weather has prevented him from releasing it. Will be out when he can get it out.
I think it’s amazing that we try to forecast months in advance, yet we are lucky to get an accurate five day out forecast.
..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY…WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…BELL…
CLAY…FLOYD…HARLAN…KNOTT…KNOX…LESLIE…LETCHER…
PERRY AND PIKE.
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
* THE GROUND IS MORE MOIST THAN DURING EARLIER RAINFALL EVENTS THIS
FALL DUE TO RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS TO BETWEEN ONE AND
ONE HALF AND TWO INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE BULK OF THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SIX HOUR PERIOD.
* LATER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…IF HEAVY RAIN
MATERIALIZES… RUNOFF WOULD COLLECT IN THE LARGER STREAMS AND
RIVERS AND POSSIBLY BRING THEM TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE BANKFUL. AT
THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING RISES TO NEAR OR EXCEEDING
BANKFUL.