Good Thursday, weather weenies. The weekend is fast approaching and we have a huge storm system that’s going to impact our region with a lot of wild stuff. All of this leads us back into a very cold and wintry setup as we close the year and head into January.
In the immortal words of Arsenio Hall… Let’s Get Busy! (Woof, Woof, Woof)
Today looks like the nicest day of the month and maybe the entire winter. Temps will be in the 50s with a mix of sun and increasing clouds. Winds will be very gusty and that will be the only drawback. Get used to those winds.
Moisture increases on Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers will break out early in the morning and be with us off and on throughout the day. Highs will be well into the mid and upper 50s as gusty winds increase.
A low pressure develops along this stalled boundary and rolls northeastward into the Ohio Valley Saturday and early Sunday. This has the potential to bring a round of strong or severe thunderstorms our way. The greatest threat looks to be across the central and western parts of the state. This is also where the heaviest rain will fall…
Wind gusts of 40mph or more will be likely Saturday into Sunday as this system moves in. Higher gusts would be possible if we can get some strong or severe boomers going.
Temps will surge well into the 60s Saturday and stay that way into Sunday morning. From there… the bottom falls out as thermometers drop some 40 degrees to start next week.
What happens early in the week is beginning to get more of my attention. The models are starting to key on a piece of energy diving into the back edge of the trough by Sunday night and Monday. It won’t take much for this energy to dive all the way into the Ohio Valley and slow down. That would allow for another wave of low pressure to develop just to our east and throw moisture back into the colder air moving in. The Canadian Model continues to show this scenario…
The upper level setup on the European Model isn’t too far away from producing something like that. It may or may not happen, but it certainly bears watching. This is a pattern that takes any chance it can get to spin up systems. If that system doesn’t materialize… watch for something developing late Christmas Day or Thursday.
After this… the cold returns as king. I outlined in my last post what a cold pattern we’ve been in. I have little doubt the worst is yet to come and the models continue to jump all over this. Check out the average temperature anomaly (in Celsius) from the GFS For December 27- January 3…
That’s the a rolling average for 8 days!
The GFS Ensembles are singing the same tune with this kind of setup…
For those who’ve been reading my blogs for the past decade, you can probably gauge my confidence level just by how many maps I post or how long posts are. This one should be telling you something. 😉
Updates later today. Take care.
6 degree C departure from normal? Puts our average daily high somewhere around 30 for the period. Good luck firing up that blowtorch.
Make that around 21 degrees for the Northern part of the state.
Like some have said………anything more than 5 days out is a complete guessing game……in some cases even THREE days out……Giving a definite as to what’s going to happen in Jan, and Feb is just crazy.
Since the word “snow” does not appear to be much of a topic point, I shall stick with the word of the week: Departures.
Where has Obryant been.
Big dogs still going with WARMTH for majority, if not the entire month of January. Probably a safe bet given the trends of the past several years.
I could care less what your people say i come to this blog for a reason and you have shown NO proof to support your idea I mean someone else’s idea. That is one reason people really disagree/dislike what your saying. Cheers Obryant 😉
Then why did you wonder about my whereabouts. Clearly you are interested in the information I’m gleaning from other sources.
Its kinda like chronic knee pain
Was what you predicted normal or following the trend? I was thinking the past several years have seen some fairly average temperature. I would think that if your monthly average comes true it would be a record or near it for monthly average temperature for January.
Who the heck are the “big dogs,” Bryant? Basically you are repeating what others are saying and have no prediction of your own. I guess that explains why you can not back up your blowtorch theory.
I have a question, and please do not think this is bashing his forecast, but he is saying all these cold temps are coming and he is very confident about it, then I look at the WKYT app on my ipad and the next 10 days has temps in the 40s and 50s ….. heck, Christmas Day is showing sunny and 52 …. so my question, do they not use the same models due to working there?
You know, that’s the kind of discussion I’d like to see more of on here. Obviously models and forecasts disagree a lot. But why? I come here mainly to understand how weather forecasting works, and Bailey does a great job with that, but sometimes I’d like to see some honest, back-and-forth in depth.
Chris said while back all weather apps just have computer input no human input
that makes little sense and doesn’t answer anything, but going by your response, are not all models computer input? and if not, can they be human manipulated to say about anything you want them to ?
They can but could you imagine the time it would take forecast every single location in the world ? The weather apps are pure date nothing more. If you want to know what a model says verbatim that’s what the weather apps give you.
I do not have the apps because they are pretty bad from my experience. I know that on wkyt they have:
Monday: 29/19
Tuesday: 32/26
Wednesday: 38/
At least that is what the 7 day planner is showing right now. So if the app says 40’s-50’s it does not follow their site.
It just seems that these apps do not follow much. I would say they follow the models but we have Chris showing us models that show colder temperature. The GFS he has in this post is showing a decent departure from normal. And the models from the last post in temperature departures was not to shabby either. So I am really wondering how these apps come to their forecast. I quit using them when the ones I had were showing a nice day 3 days out while forecasts where calling for strong storms a few springs ago. Those apps were way off so I just deleted them and started checking the actual site every time. And this blog has been priceless many times.
http://www.wkyt.com/
Here’s the 7 day on wkyt.com with a high of 38° for Christmas Day
just wait until next week is an old phrase it is so so so yesterday.
we move on to the present and now the phrase en vogue is 5 Days and under.
the new norm but the same old story.
As Todd has stated the SE Ridge has been our winter killer for several years now. I’m glad to see the last map that says “no ridge” off the SE corner of the US coast. With that thing gone, we may have a real chance for a real winter like most of the US sees year after year. Hopefully it will stay gone for a while.
Not sure if that is a good thing or not. Only means the storm systems will track further to the south. We know what that means. Cold and no snow unless you are in far South Eastern Ky.
Which would work out well for me! TN state line here. 😉
I personally would like to see a relaxed southeast ridge that the cold air can penetrate. The systems would roll up over and put us in the sweet spot. The ones that rolo up the West side of the Appalachians and not all the way out to the East Coast.
if the southern ridge energy dissipates, this might allow clippers to dive further south than normal.
I know they usually lead 2 ankle biters but it beats nothing.
all I know what’s going on concerning the weather right now its not working for snow lovers across the entire state.
Rolo up the west side weeeeeeeeee:)
since i’m new to your blogs i don’t know what the amount of maps or the length of blog is telling us. so, what is it telling us?
Look at the tweets over the past day and you know weather is boring, everyone showing pics of the sky and moon.
I would love to show the same pics but with snow on the ground!