Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for making the Center your home for Kentucky weather. Wow… how about that Tuesday weather? That was a wild day that featured the MUCH needed soaking rains along with some wicked winds. Gusts were approaching 60mph in some cases as low pressure deepened right on top of us en route toward the Great Lakes.

That is now behind us and we have one weak system to go through on Thursday before all eyes focus on the Thanksgiving holiday week that is just around the corner. More on that in a moment.

Let’s get the short term weather out of the way first.

Today will see winds still on the gusty side… but nothing like what we had Tuesday. A mix of sun and clouds will be with us as temps range from the upper 40s to lower 50s in many areas.

A weak low pressure moves almost due east from the lower plains into the Tennessee Valley Thursday. This will be weakening out along the way as it brings clouds and some chilly showers to our part of the world. There may be just enough cold air for a wet flake or two to mix in Thursday evening in the highest elevations.

Better weather moves in for the weekend as sunshine returns and temps spike back up through the 50s and perhaps toward the low 60s for a few days. This will carry us into early into the Thanksgiving week. That is when things start to get active as a big change moves in by the middle and end of the week… basically around Turkey Day.

Regular readers here know I have been targeting Thanksgiving week for a major change that will lead to an early start to winter for much of the country. That change gets started out west into the northern plains first then overspreads the rest of the country by the second half of next week. How all this unfolds remains to be seen… but there continues to be ample proof it is coming and once it should stick around into much of December.

One of the things we try to do here on the blog is to not talk too much in meteorological terms. You guys just want to know what my thoughts are on the forecast… why I think the way I think and to make my point without talking over your heads. I will try to do just that with this next map.

I often talk about blocking showing up on the models and how this plays a big role in sometimes giving us a wintry pattern. The amount blocking showing up on the models is really a sight to behold. Here is a 500mb height anomaly forecast map centered on NEXT Friday to illustrate my point…



That is a mega negative NAO block showing up across Greenland into eastern Canada. You will also see a big ridge extending up toward Alaska and it is being held in place by blocking underneath it in the Eastern Pacific. The end result of such blocking forces MUCH lower heights southward from Canada into the eastern half of the country. This would be a cold and possibly wintry pattern for a lot of people.

We have been showing a lot of the GFS Ensembles recently and they have been showing the cold temp departures from normal across the east for Thanksgiving weekend. The latest runs continue to do just that…



The question is… how do we get to that point? Looking at the overall pattern for next week… it has the look of a pressing cold air mass for the middle of the week that features a slow moving cold front heading in here by Wednesday. That front could very well have waves of low pressure riding along it. That is something we will have to watch for because of all the holiday travelers as both rain and frozen precipitation would be possible.

The GFS and Canadian models like the slow moving front idea… they just differ on the timing…

GFS


Canadian Model


The models are showing the ideas I first talked about a few weeks ago here on the blog. Does that mean it will work out? Nope… not at all. One of my biases is picking out the overall pattern, but being too quick on the change. Is that the case next week? Time will tell… but that time is running out.

I hope you enjoyed all the info I put into this update. Have a great Wednesday and take care.