Good Thursday gang. I don’t have a ton of time for this post as I am have been a busy bee getting the winter forecast ready to go. It will be online next week before Thanksgiving. That forecast and 20 bucks will get you a coffee. Anyone else miss the days of 50 cent coffee? ha

We have a weak low pressure scooting across the Tennessee Valley today and this is throwing up some clouds and a few showers. The rains will be decreasing the farther east that they get into the afternoon hours. You can track this action here…



The clouds will begin to thin out from west to east today as partly sunny skies return by the end of the day to most of the state. Temps will be held in the 40s for much of the time… but will spike a few degrees for areas getting in on the most clearing.

Current Temps


Looking down the road… things are still a go on a significant pattern change during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The exact timing of this change will be ironed out in the coming days… but it will be one that takes us into a MUCH colder pattern that is likely to feature several chances for wintry weather into early December.

Before we get to the change… we have a heck of a nice weekend ahead. Highs will rebound well into the 50s and even a few low 60s under mainly sunny skies.

Early next week will see temps remaining warm with a few days in the 60s. Windy, warm and eventually wet weather will be with us from later Monday through Tuesday and Wednesday. All of this is ahead of our pattern change.

At this point.. it is all a question of when and how the transition happens as we switch to the colder pattern. The GFS and the GFS Ensembles are pretty quick with it…


The European Model is having all kinds of issues as this pattern plays right into the bias of the model not knowing what to do with west coast troughs. I just got a peak at the new run and it is now similar to the GFS in the timing of it all. Nothing like this model going from one run to the next and showing a trough on opposite coasts with each run.

The European Ensembles are about a day or so slower with the cold…



We will see how it all plays out and the blog will keep updating you on next week’s change as it will be during a busy holiday travel period.

Have a great Thursday and take care.