Good Thursday, all. Lots of changes in the overall pattern means lots of back and forth with the individual models in the coming days. This is something we see a lot of, but that will get even worse as blocking shows up over the next week.
That said… shots of arctic cold continue to look to be common as we roll through the next few weeks. The European Ensembles shows how the troughs keep on digging in…
Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.
What does all the purple and green colors mean? It dont look like it will good.
Cold air
The GFS has been all over the map the last couple days. It is now showing the arctic air not becoming entrenched and has taken any big system off the table except one…..guess what is absent when it shows that storm?
Its just one model run. Doesnt mean anything, yet.
If you blend the average of the models together, the average system trend of the GFS has fit decently so far this year. If the GFS outlook bounces around just a few days before the event, the middle result is a near safe bet.
If the NAM or whatever says 4″ of snow and the GFS says rain, forecast equals mix to 2″ average for the map. Overly simple example, but point being the map outlook average has not been too bad so far. On the other hand, individual models have sucked sour lemons with no sign of sugar.
That was all Bubbacasts were when I used to do them. I took the average of the models as 50% weight and CB’s forecast as 50% weight to come up with a Bubbacast. Nothing more or less.
MODEL outlook average
Some people fail to read Chris’s thoughts.
Key word being “thoughts”.
I smell a change next week…not nearly as cold…but cold enough for more (wait for it) COLD RAIN.
BigPoppaSnow
We might have a few ankle biters. I think CBs original outlook was correct, but he thought he could bust and there be more snow for winter. Not seeing it IMO, but I am a slave to a very proven trend.
The models are still trying to key on a big big system around the 7th of Jan..Maybe something, maybe not..All one can do is keep there fingers and toe’s crossed that something forms and head’s or way..
Given the trends this winter, the January 3rd system is looking like it will bring a few inches of accumulating snow for the Greater Cincy area and points north. South of that area (i.e. central kentucky) it will either be just warm enough for rain and/or too dry for the precipitation to develop.
Will be interesting to look back and see how well or far off this “forecast” of mine is for this system.