Good Tuesday everyone. Join me in saying a big welcome back to the 70s! That doesn’t mean you need to break out the bell bottom trousers, hot pants or platform shoes. And whatever you do… do not let me see any pork chop sideburns unless you go by the name of Elvis at a midnight show out in Vegas. 
Instead… I want you to enjoy the temps in the 70s for the next several days as some big changes are brewing down the road.
There isn’t a lot I can say about the short term forecast. The weather around here is going to be nothing short of awesome for the next several days. Highs will range within a few degrees on either side of the famed 70 degree mark. Sunshine will be plentiful through Friday. Enjoy!!
The changes begin on Saturday as a cold front moves our way from the west. This front will have a broken line of showers and thundershowers with it as it moves in from the west. There does not appear to be much in the way of moisture with this system… not that that qualifies as breaking news anymore. This front will introduce some much colder air by Sunday. That plays out nicely on the GFS Ensembles…
That is nothing earth shattering in terms of cold… but it will bring temps back below normal into early next week. Speaking of next week… the cold air will fan out from west to east with the greatest concentration of cold across the northern half of the country. This happens as the southern branch of the jet stream becomes active. The models will struggle with the interaction of all this as they will have a lot on their plate. You will see them blow up a low pressure one run to only lose it the next for a while. If you step back and look at the pattern… it is one that favors several storm systems rolling across the country with our part of the world likely in their path.
As this happens… the really cold air slowly but surely overwhelms the weather pattern across most of the country into the week leading up to Thanksgiving. There is likely to be a pretty good discharge of cold coming our way from northwestern Canada and Alaska. You can see that here on the GFS Ensembles 11-15 day 850mb temp anomaly map…
For a period that is basically two weeks away… it is hard to get a model average to show that depth of cold that is also that widespread. We will focus more on that in the coming days.
For those interested… the winter forecast will be out in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.
Now… if you will pardon me… I have some dance moves to work on in honor of the 70s…
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
I definitely love the 70’s. I hope they last through Saturday afternoon.
The drought continues, however. I would think that would play a role in any snow forecasts down the pike…
Your thoughts are the same as mine. If we can’t get any rain then how are we going to get any snow. We all obviously know that snow is just frozen rain.
Jake
Sitting at a 41 degree differential between low and high temp for Madison Co. today. Wow.
this is why I have a cold
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_162s.gif
Wow…. ever so close to a snow event.
WXman,
Is the blue line the freexing line right above us?
I meant freezing line. lol
That chart actually shows the temperature at the surface, where we live. You don’t see guys post that chart much, for reasons I don’t know. The freezing line is across central IL. The 50 degree line is across southeastern TN. So you’re talking around 40 here in the LEX area with precip. moving in. Again… ever so close to a snow event, but no cigar.
Readers and Posters: First of all I appreciate all your work on keeping everyone safely informed about the weather we all deal with. I share this blog my science class when things get interesting!
I am looking into applying for a grant to fund a school weather station. I want one that is wireless and internet accessible. I want the kids to look at data, determine trends and make predictions. Any suggestions as far as a kit or equipment?
Thanks again for all you do.
Oh Chris I can’t wait to hear your winter weather forecast!!!!! I have a feeling it doesn’t have as much snow in it though…but we’ll take what we get. 🙂
Yeah, I don’t know anyone in KY that lives at 850MB…well…maybe on Black Mountain.
Ummm… perhaps because the 2m temps on medium range models are unstable from run to run? Trying to ask a model to pinpoint surface temps from a week away is asking for trouble. Using a more stable 850mp temp map is the way to go and I’m surprised a few of you can’t see that.
OK, I can see your point here. 2m temp consistency is pretty bad…but 850mb is not all that great either. I guess my point here is that 850 mb temps less than zero does not always imply frozen precipitation.
I use the Davis Vantage Pro 2 wireless station at my house and I love it. The only wire I ran was to the anemometer because I wanted a more stable connection to it 33′ in the air. Everything else is wireless and works great.
I’m so glad that it is not in the 80’s this week, I don’t know if I could handle pictures of big hair bands, women wearing shirts with shoulder pads, stretch-stirrup pants, or leg warmers. I mean really when is it ever ok to wear stirrup pants. Looks like that will have to wait until next year. Keep up the great work I love following your blog. And lets keep the snow to a minimum this year.