Happy Monday, all. It’s all eyes on the increasing potential for a harsh period of winter weather for much of the country and that includes the bluegrass state. The action gets started later this week with a snow system rolling through the region on Thursday.
The models are taking on a snowier look with this system as they are showing a farther south solution with the lead low. What’s happening is we are getting the disturbances into a region where the models can get a better sample of them. They are also getting a better handle of the depth of the arctic air in place across the northern half of the country.
The GFS would put down a decent snowfall across the entire state with this solution…
While I am not ready to say that’s correct… the chance for accumulating snow has increased for Thursday and Thursday night. While the snow chances increase… the temps decrease. This solution would mean single digits by Friday morning with highs in the teens.
Btw… The Canadian Model is similar to what the GFS is now cooking.
The next round of winter will follow that up with another arctic front blowing in Saturday night into Sunday. The models strongly suggest this will have, at least, a wave of low pressure along it. The European is cooking up a sizable storm…
The motherlode of arctic air will dive into much of the country behind this system and it may hang around for a long while. If we can put snow on the ground with that Sunday system… watch out.
For fun, here’s what last night’s European was showing for lows…
I am NOT endorsing those numbers, but this is a very extreme pattern taking shape and you can get some extreme results.
Updates as needed… take care.
According to the temperature map, this is a rare time that being in SE KY will be a good thing, weather wise. I’d much rather be at 0 that -20. Snow and not as cold. Have a great day!
excuse the typo- 0 than -20
wow, some serious cold!
come on SNOW!!!
I would think we need a decent snow cover to get temps that low, hopeful the models will continue to trend in our favor for snow, thanks for the updates Chris!
Last time Lexington officially even hit -10 was February of 1996. Those numbers are crazy!
Yep, but a bunch of snow was on the ground before it happened.
Definitely a interesting forecast the Thursday system could be a 1-3 inch snowfall. Early next week thats some incredibly true artic air if we have a snow cover then yes below zero. If not still incredibly cold single digits to possibly around 0 without the snow cover. Biggest question is will there be snow on the ground I say there’s a 50/50 chance. Thursday’s system has got me intrigued not a heavy snow but it might be a advisory type situation. The GFS and the NAM have been going back and forth with this Thursday clipper system. This nonsense about a incredibly warm January can be put to rest now it will be quite and I do mean quite the opposite of warm.
Looks like we may be adding to this list…
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=top10winter
Where’s the blizzard of ’93?
The criteria for the rankings are unknown, so let’s just play it safe and say http://i.imgur.com/EqkOCHU.jpg
As I understand, the most recent euro has gone even more insane with the cold?
Euro is a snow lovers friend. Storm somewhere around the 6th-7th could be significant somewhere close by.
Blowtorch here. If and when this comes to fruition, I will gladly eat the foot that I’m ready to place in my mouth. Man, I hope you’re right, CB, I”m itching for a mid 90’s style winter pretty bad this year. 1996 anyone?
With all do respect I just don’t understand your theory about January being record warm like?
Bryant was just doing reversed voodoo, if it works out, we can all thank him for scaring off the mild winter 🙂
I’m picturing him being like the Indians fan at the end of Major League II when the true Wild Thing comes back.
🙂
Another add to your winter wallpaper collection…Wicklow Mountains, Ireland, Christmas Day 2013
http://i.imgur.com/ol0qki0.jpg
LD, I’ve been looking for a wintry desktop background for my computer. Finally found one!!
Enjoy your post of upcoming weather. I am so addicted. I don’t have to worry like many do having to drive in this weather but I still like to read about it
General rule of thumb when Alaska starts to warm the US will get cold the cold will be forced to move basically dislodge and head towards the US. Alaska for weeks has and still is brutally frigid sections of Alaska has had temps of negative 40 below. Of course that air will modify as it approaches but still brutally cold.
at least Chris is showing evidence to back up his thoughts and not just spewing stuff.
Thanks Chris
Spew or no spew, we will need a snow pack for the temps to hit. Significant snow followed by clear skies in the night. Can not recall one time where snow was not on the ground for those temps.
IF we get a significant snow, watch out. Even if we do not get snow, single digits is still pretty darn cold. Add wind to it and it is rough like we had a few years ago. Wasn’t it three years ago when we had real cold spells with about a dozen arch and ankle biters? Maybe four.
Yeah, just don’t see that happening without a significant snow cover, crystal clear nights and totally calm winds. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some below zero single digits around the area but without a deep snow, no way we go near that cold.
I’m not here to throw cold water on anything, but MJ’s twitter feed features a conversation that says North American temperatures are too cold on the Euro model thanks to a change in the model’s physics. Let’s be honest, that model has shown big arctic outbreaks in the 6-10 period recently that haven’t quite materialized. I’ve certainly got my fingers crossed, but the Euro seems to be on the very, very extreme end of things. I hope it pans out though!
I hope it is not correct myself myself. Sub zero temps hurts people and critters. I think CB is aware and has not bought in either, but is more focused on the models for now agreeing on some level step down in temps and snow events.
My views on the models needs no further articulation 😉 If we get the snow though (IF), we could see sub zero temps, but not what the Euro is showing. An average of the models tends to be the safest bet.
“Sub zero temps hurts people and critters.”
That is my concern about all this cold talk. i have a 30 yr. old horse who is a bit thin so this kind of cold could kill him. I love snow, but I hope we don’t get much so maybe the temps won’t get so low.
-myself
and Irene
Messed up flick!
havew to admit OLD SCHOOL signs showing up on some these future models. agree with poster SE KY and Sky is place to be as warm air will work in our favor when AOLD SCHOOL develops.. meaning it not be to warm, but just right for a THUMPER. MY dead DADDY always said 33-34 degrees was a good snowing tempeture and when a ole OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE comes thru that indeed is what going happen followed by 0 degreees!! now im not saying this will happen but seeing OLD SCHOOL signs in the models for first time in YEARS!!
10 minutes later you’ll be saying “sorry folks nothing to see here”.
I don’t want zero and below temps. What I do want are temps just cold enough to snow!
well I would love lots of snow, but I am not holding my breath! I will believe it when I walk outside and actually see it snowing!
Chris you know you are my weatherman this blog and you on the tube is what I depend on Chris please answer this question for me how is it that wlex and wtvq has so different forecast then you they have us in the 30’s next week wtvq said No big snowstorms in the forecast what do they look at that is so different then hat you forecast Chris I hope you comment back on this I love this blog thank you so much for what you do for us all….
CB is not forecasting it either so far 😉
They have us in the 30’s next week Chris had 14 that’s not even close….
He is showing model runs, he continues to say it may not happen that way but it’s the latest “model run” not a forecast.
Chris did have a high of 14 on tonight’s forecast on TV??
It was for Monday but was in his forecast
NOT EXCITED about the new Euro temps for next week. Maybe a “blowtorch” would be nice…ya know..warm the below 0 temps to a nice 24 degrees with heavy snow.
Paducah and Louisville NWS afternoon forecast discussions typically downplayed all of this.
A lot of “ifs” ATM. The sub zero temps need the snow and that is not even forecast so far. Not even a peep of threat mode for a snow event that is needed for the super cold temps to pan out. No surprise on non committals 😉
I would love to see some below zero temperatures, but if we push -20ºF you will beat my my all time low temperature ever observed in Streamwood, Illinois (I think it was January 19th, 1994). It was fun throwing water in the air and it freezing before it hit the ground.