Good Tuesday and Happy New Year! We’re spending the final day of 2013 tracking a serious surge of winter showing up for the first month of the new year. Snow threats and shots of arctic air are on the way to the state as Old Man Winter takes on a rather nasty look across the country.
The first system will roll into town by on Thursday and is likely to bring accumulating snows to the entire state. How much snow you get still has to be ironed out, but this has the look of a 1″-3″ snowfall for many folks. If we are to see this trend outside of those numbers… odds favor the over. That’s based on the look as of right now, but the models are still getting a handle on how it all plays out.
The GFS continues to look too disjointed for my taste as it really doesn’t know what to key on, thus it’s rather spread out with the precipitation. Just a few days ago, this model had nothing, so it’s come a long way…
The European Model continues to show a stronger lead low into east Tennessee and has much more moisture to work with…
I still don’t see this as being a “storm” here in Kentucky, but it wouldn’t take much adjustment to get it to that point. I suspect the models won’t get a full handle until tonight or Wednesday morning. Think back to the rain maker we had this past Sunday. Remember how the models didn’t catch on to how much rain it would produce until less than 2 days out?
Arctic air plunges in on the backside of this system with crashing temps on Thursday. Winds will be very gusty and lows by Friday could reach the high single digits for some spots.
This brings us to the extreme portion of the pattern. The European Model has been going absolutely nuts with its best impersonation of January, 1994. I watch each run come in and wait for it to settle down and not be so extreme… that has yet to happen. Check this out…
That shows an arctic front racing into the region Saturday night and Sunday morning. A major storm develops along this boundary and slowly lifts northeastward as the polar vortex crashes into the backside of it. It is basically bringing the North Pole into the Ohio Valley Monday and Tuesday.
The European Model now has a friend in the Canadian Model. It’s latest run isn’t AS extreme, but still qualifies as extreme…
This model is also showing thermometers going well below zero by Monday night and Tuesday morning…
I still cannot fully endorse the severity of what the above models are showing… mainly because we are 5 days away. That said… the pattern has been telegraphing something extreme for a long while. Let’s give it a few more days before committing to such a big ticket weather event.
I will have more posts later in the day. Happy New Year and take care.
Shiver me timbers that’s cold
I love the snow chances but I cannot get aboard the Siberian Express.
A lot of our major snows through the years have been followed by brutal cold. Who knows if it gets as cold as the Euro says, but it’s not out of the question.
Trying to stay positive looks more like cold rain for Thursday really would like some snow as the models suggest. Cold needs to get here quicker
The precip for Thursday will be 90 percent snow maybe start as a cold rain but will rapidly change to snow. There really is not much question about that.
Two “decent” to “major” snow chances on the board followed by the possibility of super cold! Now this is FUN!
Not getting my hopes up. Just saying! To many times over the past that the models showing the lighter amounts win out. Like what I see on the models, but it is a model. Take all that make up off and what do you get, another plain Jane.
Happy New Years to CB and all of his followers.
remember Louisville has been a trend breaker this year.lol
in all seriousness the upcoming 0z models should all be near conformity concerning the Thursday event.
Yes we did get snow on our side of the river first of Dec. Hope it happens again first of Jan.
I believe some parts of SE KY could see a 4 inch snow for thursday-friday as some upslope kicks in..
I appreciate the flow of what CB is saying, but if not buying the Euro for an event less than two days out, why pay much notice to it for five days out? It has been a proven over-stater for snow and temps so far all year.
This will be a good case study. See what happens in two days and by next week. If the Euro does it again, we could officially dub it the model who cries wolf and give it very little weight in an average of the models going forward.
Perhaps the Euro is not good for snow and temp results, but more the pattern flow of the actual system. Still good data for a forecast, but not one to hang on to for actual measurable results. We shall soon see if so 🙂
Not that Chris was buying into it, but ah well.
If going by what the Euro says with every winter system that comes into play the commonwealth should get 50 inches of snow per year. So Bubba give credit to the Euro most of the time the Euro is wrong but it’s consistent. That’s more than I can say for the other models. The Euro rarely flip flops it set on its ways rarely waffles its just wrong most of the time and the Euro doesn’t really care what the other models think.
My verbose point being if the Euro is not highly regarded just two days out, seems far less so- five days out. Safe bet appears to blend the models together and lightly weight the Euro.
thanks, Chris!
hope some or all of this pans out.
i have really enjoyed the comments the last few days where folks remember the snows of old- 78, 94 etc. and add their educated opinions.
much better than the grousing, second guessing and blah, blah.
happy new year to all!
Quote from JKL
MODELS REALLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY AND CONFIDENCE TANKS. THE ECMWF
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A GOOD SNOW STORM SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK LIKE WE HAVE NOT SEEN HERE IN
20 YEARS OR MORE. HOWEVER…THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING JUST A LITTLE SNOW ON SUNDAY WHILE KEEPING THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC COLD OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE
LOGICAL AND CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY…THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL SHOWN
BY FOUR CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS NOTEWORTHY AND CONCERNING.
AS SUCH…HAVE GIVEN THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE WEIGHT THAN
USUAL IN THE MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTS
IN A SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE…THEN DECREASING SNOW CHANCES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL
BELOW NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A
/SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR/ IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL.
who is JKL?
Jackson NWS
Sounds like NWS in Jackson has concluded no matter what the models are showing extreme winter weather is not going to happen climatology wise!
In simple terms, they appear to essentially say IMO the models are always wrong in relation to the trend.
If this stuff fizzles again as time goes by, not many here should be surprised. CB though appears to differ with them and hanging onto the models more as far as thought.
Well–December is going to finish just a bit above normal in temps and above/below normal in snow highly dependent upon where you are in Kentucky.
The last time Kentucky had a really cold January was 1994. The last time Lexington had a January finish in the Top 10 coldest was 1985–almost thirty years ago. Perhaps we are due for a major arctic outbreak.
1st time on this year…..not as many responses as last year with a potential system on the table…any thoughts?
HAPPY NEW YEAR btw…..2014 is at the door
12z NAM is pitiful
12z GFS looks decent I guess split the difference between the NAM and the GFS
Happy new year to all
Bring on the snow, 2013 its time to go 🙂
Happy New Year Chris and Blog Family!
What time does the euro run? Or if it already has what is it showing
Would love to see another post like the infamous “NAM says BAM” post. Anyone remember that one
yeah and we got zilch down here LoL 😉
I tried to post a couple of times about the major arctic cold in the northern plains and the PNA, AO, and NAO and what they might mean for us but none of them came through. Oh well, looks cold and snowy to start January.
Less than 48 hours away from possible decent snow event, wonder if any advisories will go up tonight? Chris??
Don’t know about snow for next system but man it’s going to get cold if modeling is right..I believe the Canadian has come in colder than earlier runs…But the Canadian is bias for the cold..