Good Thursday everyone and thanks for making the Center your home for weather. Colder air is working in across the state today and this means temps will be much lower than recent days. This should set us up for frost and freezing temps the next few mornings. Down the road… the models are trying to develop a cold and almost wintry look a week from now.
Before we get into the look ahead… a few notes about the severe weather outbreak from a few days ago. Three tornadoes have now been confirmed across the state with the strongest touching down in Middlesboro. Check out this pic of some of the damage…
Here is the information on the tornado from the NWS Jackson…
Time: Touchdown for approximately 1 to 2 minutes between 6:10 pm EDT and 6:15 pm EDT.
Location: From just West of State Hwy 2079 North of Fleetwood Road, East-Northeast to just West of Hwy 25E in Middlesboro.
EF-Scale: EF-1
Estimated Max Winds: 105 MPH
Path Width: 1/10th to 1/8th of a mile
Path Length: 7/10th of a mile
Injuries: None
Fatalities: None
The other twisters plowed through Bullitt and Warren Counties. Here is the information on those from the NWS in Louisville…
Bulitt County
An EF-0 tornado struck Bogard Lane about four miles southwest of Mount Washington at 11:51am. The path was 150 yards long and 75 yards wide. A well-constructed concrete workshop was heavily damaged with a 3500 pound roof blown 45 yards away. A 125 pound chimney was blown 60 yards away. Insulation was found in nearby trees
Warren County
A National Weather Service storm survey team found that a low-end EF1 tornado with maximum winds of 90 mph struck just southeast of Bowling Green. The tornado touched down at 11:08am CDT 3.2 miles southeast of Bowling Green, and lifted at 11:11am CDT 4.5 miles east-southeast of Bowling Green. A tree was uprooted at the beginning of the track. As the tornado crossed Cemetery Road it damaged a home. A barn was unroofed near the end of the track. Damage was intermittent along the path.
The big weather news right now is the widespread sub 32 degree temps expected the next few mornings. This will lead to the first freeze of the season for most of the region. Lows in the upper 20s will be likely in a lot of areas. High temps today will run around 60 in the east to mid 50s west and north as the colder air works in from this direction. Winds will be rather gusty as well. Friday will see colder temps with the east around 50 and the west in the low and mid 50s for highs.
Many areas will hold trick or treat hours this evening. The weather looks good… but chilly as temps drop into the 40s so dress the little ones in a warm costume this year. 
Saturday will start cold with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s once again. Sunny skies will boost temps toward the low 60s for the entire area. There is nothing scary about the weather for Halloween as high temps hit the 60s under partly sunny skies.
A weak system will roll eastward Monday with a scattered shower or two. Colder air will filter in behind it for Tuesday as our pattern shows signs of developing a big east coast storm. This overall setup has a decided winter look to it as low pressure wil try to form across the southeastern states and head northeast up the coast. This happens as a big closed low dumbbells in behind it with cold air from canada. If this were later in November… this would be something to really keep an eye on. Given it is only week one we are talking about… the calendar argues against anything wintry. Still… it will be interesting to watch.
Here is the European Model…
We will continue to watch this storm to see how it all evolves over the next several days. This should make for some fun tracking for so early in the season.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
Thank you Chris. BRRR. Winter is coming for sure! 🙂
Have a great day!
It has snowed in Jackson County on Halloween before, so don’t rule anything out just because of the date!:-)
yeah, 3″ fell around Halloween one yr. back in the 90’s I think.
Nov. 5 & 6 is Breeders’ Cup weekend at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Any guesses what will be happening? I’ve got out of state guests coming and they are wondering what to pack. The racing media is telling handicappers that the forecast is sunny and dry. Where’s that coming from? I’d appreciate some local wisdom.
First 348 hr gfs snowstorm of the season.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/06/gfs_pcp348384_l.shtml
Probably won’t happen to that extent but I can imagine a few flakes to fall around that time for much of the state.
hmmmmm…. could the winter end up being exciting after all..???!!! well I kind of found this interesting this is what Henry Margusity posted on his blog yesterday…
Here’s what concerns me. The weather pattern this October is not what I expected to see and that has implications for the winter forecast. Typically, the pattern in October tends to telegraph the winter pattern. So if you take the current pattern and extrapolate that forward, one would think that the snowy areas are going to be in two areas. One area in the East where storms hit the coast and explode and the other is the Midwest. I am not saying this will happen; it’s just a concern I have right now. Let me say one thing. I think in all the winter forecasts being issued, we are assuming the typical La Nina pattern, but the pattern has not been behaving like the typically La Nina pattern. Southern California has had more rain then ever, extreme storms are hitting the Upper Midwest and next week and we have a major coastal storm developing and record heat running around the country. These are all things that one would not find in the typical La Nina pattern. So I think over the next couple of weeks, I am really going to take a look at things and may have to make an major update to the winter forecast…..
and then he made this comment this morning…
I know a lot of you are scratching your heads yesterday based on my comments about the winter forecast. So let me explain a couple of things.
1. I am not making changes to the forecast just yet, I am just looking at some things that are concerning me in regards to the initial reasoning of the forecast.
2. If the concerns I expressed yesterday are correct, yes, it would be a worse winter in the East and not as bad in the Northwest as predicted. It would also mean a change to the snow amounts. Yes, more snow in many places..
3. When would I make a change? Probably in the next two weeks or so if we continue to see the pattern going in the direction it seems to be going.
I hope that answers all your questions….
well if your a snow lover you have to admit that sounds better than what most have been forecasting the winter to actually be like…so I guess we’ll see..
I did go back and research winter of 95-96 that was a La Nina winter and London Corbin airport recieved several good snows that yr. and average temps. rain either normal or slighly above normal..and the grandaddy was in Feb. 96′ when a 12″ snowstorm occured that stayed on for over a week, and then we had 3 other 4+ snows at the end of the month…so, Who knows…:)
I have wished to publicate something like this text on my blog and you gave me perfect thought. Thanks!