Good evening, everyone. Your friendly weatherdude is sitting in a computer cubicle at the Minneapolis Aiport and about to head home. Leave it to me to find a way to update the blog from just outside my airport gate. This pattern deserves the attention, though.
Here’s a quick breakdown of what I expect…
– Lows tonight will tank! Below zero readings are likely for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Some of the colder spots could hit -10!
– The snow system coming in late Friday night into Saturday is going to be a HIGH impact system. Snowfall: take the lines on the first call map and adjust them westward. I’m becoming more bullish on a few spots picking up on 4″-6″ of the white stuff before it’s all over. Winds are going to gust to 40mph and this may create blizzard conditions at times. Saturday is a day that can feature brief road closures because of the blowing snow and reduced visibilities.
– The next arctic front arrives Sunday night with some snow and even colder air. Readings early next week are likely to go well below zero for a few days with highs struggling to get much past 0.
– I’m seeing indications of this pattern turning even snowier later next week into the following week. The southern branch of the jet is going to try to come to life!
See you later tonight for a full update. Gotta go catch my plane. BTW… we hit close to -20 this morning with a wind chill of -40. OUCH!
Take care.
Thanks Chris. Have a safe flight home! looking forward to the next update.
Dang and we thought it was cold.
To give some perspective, one of my cousins (a son of one of my uncles) was at one time stationed at Eielson Air Force Base in Fairbanks Alaska. The average high in Fairbanks this time of year is around zero. Yes, a big fat goose egg as the average high. The average low is near minus 20. Again, these are average temps, in degrees F, and not wind chill. Minus 40 is getting pretty cold even for Fairbanks but is still somewhat common. Try one time having a high of minus 28!! The all time record low for Fairbanks is a numbing minus 66.
It’s hard to imagine those temps, but my cousin said you simply adjust as you have little choice. After a period of minus 50 temps, 20 above almost makes you want to break out the t-shirts 😛 .
This is why Chris is the best in the business. He always finds the time, even when he has very little time, to keep us updated on his thoughts on the weather. You’re numero uno Mr Bailey.
I agree, and his thoughts are usually right on.
thanks Chris. we appreciate the update!
thanks Chris, nothing like positive snow reinforcement.
Looks like the north central and northern kentucky will do well again. Not much to get excited about here in southern and southeast KY unless you like a inch or so of wind driven snow. Rough winter to live down this way if one loves snow.
May i please have some snow?
Just does not appear to be in the cards for us. Latest snowfall maps look scarce for us southeast Kentuckians.
If we don’t get that warm surge on Sunday, I can anticipate a situation with two weeks of continuous snow cover in Lawrenceburg, Frankfort, Lexington, etc. When is that last time that happened?
1970s 🙂
GO SOUTHERN JET STREAM!!!!! Tired of the bone dry cold in western Kentucky!!!
You can move them lines way West my brother. Give us all some snow love. Also no mention of any rain for Sunday.
Joey Wilson is loving this post.
THINK RAIN!!!!
I believe tonight will be the coldest so far in frankfort area, temp already at 5 and dropping fast, -10 or lower is possible! OUCH
I had -9 on Wednesday. Right now sitting at 3 above. The last time I saw -10 was in February of 1996—before that you have to January of 1994. That’s a record I don’t want to beat anytime soon. I think Frankfort was -27 and Shelbyville -37? I think -10 is attainable tonight though.
Yep, if the winds go calm a few isolated spots might go -15
I was doing weather spotting for NWS then and we had -36 in Louisa.
Travel Safe Chris!!!
A tad disappointed that southeastern Kentucky will likely miss out on this next round of snow, but I’ll live. I’m REALLY tiring of these cold temps! I’d love to see it warm back up to around thirty or so. (Hey, it can still snow at that temperature!)
Thanks for the update, Chris, and have a safe return trip!
Just saw a CBS news weather guy say the eastern half of the country is going to warm up in early Feb, that’s news I haven’t heard?
How do you think us northeastern counties will fair?? Anyone have any thoughts?
2″-4″ maybe more
Chris, based on all the other forecasts out there, you’re either brilliant or crazy. Hoping for brilliant!
Make sure those pilots know what precious cargo they have on that plane!! You’re ours and we need you around to keep us safe!!!
Thanks, Chris. Your dedication is awesome!
NWS Louisville still preaching the upper 30s to mid 40s and rain chance for Sunday? I think their guessing at best with that!
If the warm air wins out yet again–after this much snow and prolonged cold with more snow coming on Saturday–and then more bitter cold air on Monday-Wednesday, then I give up on Southern-fed systems ever brining a good snow to Kentucky again. That arctic boundary on Tuesday was different–it was a low pressure that formed along it that brought the snow.–not a true southern fed system.
If we rise to the mid 40s I’ll be shocked, but this is KY and it was in the 50s a few days back!
even with him moving the lines west…im still gonna stick with my dusting up to 6 inch prediction
Still trying to figure out who said southeast KY was going to miss out on the snow. Adjusting the numbers westward sounds to me like we are going to get more??
Why would anything change? Still at 1.5 inches for the season
Andy, we have done a little better here in Clay County. Hope you get the big one this year! You must admit this winter seems to have a better shot at it than what we’ve seen in a while!
Its been cold for sure but for here the trend remains cold air means no snow moisture arrives its to warm. If its to change maybe it will be this year
Have you seen the winter storm in Texas? Houston and Galveston getting ice and snow? WE NEED THAT SOUTHERN STREAM! Ok, sorry for yelling…it’s not your fault.
I’m from Lexington but I’ve been in Houston since Sunday for work. I’m supposed to fly out tomorrow at 2 to come home. Needless to say I’m more than a little worried about being stranded because all the locals say that ice will shut down the city.
Find out before leaving your hotel. Much better accommodations than an airport. 😉
That’s the plan, BubbaG. I already have my flight info loaded on an app so that it’s easy to check. I’m staying at the Crowne Plaza so you’re right in saying it’s better than being camped at IAH for the night.
Ouch–just dropped to 0 here in Lawrenceburg just shy of 8:00. Still 11-12 more hours of cooling to go. -15 might be a possibility.
Yea, the KY Mesonet shows your area is in a bulls eye of sorts. It’s warmer (relatively speaking) in all directions around you.
I could send you a little of our 17 degree “warmth” we have here in Nashville 😉 .
Guess it helps that we have no snow cover at the moment. But now that CB is hinting that the southern jet may soon kick into high gear, that just might change.
NWS Jackson is on to what CB has been talking about for a while…
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ON SATURDAY…BLOWING THE SNOW AROUND AND
ALLOWING FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
Hopefully the snow finds a home in south and east KY.
Shouldn’t their atleast be some winter weather advisories going up for tomorrow night, less than 30 hours away from event starting??
NWS forecasting 3 inches in Lexington Friday night into Saturday. There should be advisories coming out soon, shouldn’t there?
They’ll watch the model runs tonight, and issue them in the morning if warranted.
Temps have leveled off in frankfort at 4, it was 3, then back to 4, must be some clouds around this area!
-7 already in richmond??
That reading would seem as error likely as the -15 yesterday. Temp ranged from 2 degrees to 4 degrees from town though to north Richmond 30 minutes ago.
I was betting on that
It is now-1 in west liberty
00z NAM is definitely trending stronger, especially for Central Kentucky.
Do you have a link to it?
00Z NAM 48 Hour Precip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTvHcQmKUpU
Have some music with our storm. Sorry gang. I have too many cut and paste’ tonight. Ragu anyone?
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p48.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M
Thank you.
Seems to give us another shot of snow Sun night/Mon. Here we go again.
00Z NAM is lQQking awful juicy for S. Indiana and N.C. Kentucky tomorrow night. Might be a warning storm. Just one model, but the NAM hasn’t done too bad lately.
Yeah, CB said “central”, but what part?
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_039_precip_p03.gif
NAM at the strongest part of the storm for Central Kentucky.
As long as not ice, anything goes IMO.
And the rich get richer
Best to make sure it is not Monopoly money first 😉 Would be nice if the whole state got a good snow and we did not have such cold temps. No icy roads either. If I am dreaming, I go BIG.
Storm at 7:00 AM ET Saturday
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_precip_p03.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p03&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M
Storm at 10:00 AM ET Saturday
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_039_precip_p03.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=precip_p03&fhr=039&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
Storm at 3:00 PM ET Saturday
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_precip_p03.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=precip_p03&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
Storm at 6:00 PM ET Saturday
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_045_precip_p03.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=precip_p03&fhr=045&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
Dodger likes stronger storms! Bring it on!
Where is Rolo’s predictions?
WOW, Blizzard conditions and possible Thundersnow all in one weekend, Chris your really getting some of us jacked up! Hopefully this plays out the way your seeing it!
if this storm comes to fruition. this has been the best groove we have been in for a long time.
Still fascinating to see such a majority of the state in single digits, or below. Only 2 reporting stations at 10 and 12. I really do want to go to school tomorrow….really. Just not sure the -1 for London with lower windchills are going to let it happen. A Friday would be a good day to celebrate our 6th day of school in January 🙂
Old Rolo needs all your prayers. He’s alright, but need all the prayers of praying people.
Prayers your way rolo!
Praying for Rolo hope you are ok…
Prayers said for Rolo…
prayers for Rolo
Chris, I can’t wait to see your new snow map!!!!!!
Chris, I can’t wait to see your new snow map!!!!!!
Please keep that 4 to 6 inch snow out of eastern Kentucky! I finally got my road cleaned today. Winter sucks, I’m so ready for spring 🙂 Everybody stay warm!
Now barb you said i could have snow
-4 at midnight in East Morehead
Praying for you Rolo. Get well soon buddy. Sure hope we get the snow. I prefer spring/summer,but if it’s going to be cold, then it might as well snow.