Good Friday to one and all. I’ve made it back to Kentucky, but it really doesn’t look or feel much different than Minneapolis. You winter weather lovers aren’t complaining about that, I’m sure. You likely won’t be complaining about what’s coming later tonight into Saturday. That’s because we have a wicked snowfall blowing into town.
First things first and that’s another bitterly cold start to the day. Below zero numbers will be noted in many areas this morning with afternoon highs in the mid and upper teens. The frozen tracking tools…
Today’s lows
Current temperatures
Snow develops overnight into Saturday and this is likely to cause major traffic problems across the entire region. This is a pretty potent system diving in…
Here’s an updated call on the snowfall potential…
Locally higher amounts will be possible and I may adjust totals and lines later today. But, I don’t really see wholesale changes.
Let’s not sugarcoat what this system is likely to bring… a whole lot of nasty. Wind gusts of 35-40mph will develop as the snow flies and this could create blizzard conditions. Travel during this time is HIGHLY discouraged. Snow covered roads and limited visibilities will cause a ton of issues out there!
Temps will be interesting. We start in the teens… spike toward 30 by early afternoon… drop 20 degrees in a few hours then head toward 0 by Sunday morning. Gusty winds will make it feel MUCH, MUCH colder.
Speaking of colder… another arctic surge rides into town Sunday night and may produce a band of blinding snow squalls… 
That could get ugly, if the NAM is right. Temps behind that will be in the single digits by Monday morning then drop toward 0 in the afternoon and below 0 during the evening.
Tuesday morning may be the coldest of the entire winter and that’s saying something! That arctic blast goes all the way into the deep south and may bring snow to the gulf coast of Florida and then into coastal areas of the Carolinas. Wait… what? Yep… this is THAT impressive of a winter!
Watch for another snow maker to come our way by the middle or end of next week.
I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
I already have about six inches of snow. Wow, the new snow will just pile up on top of it. And with the cold, we will lose water again. I already went almost a week with no running water because of frozen lines between here and Hazard. I’m afraid the power will go off with new snow. We’ll just have to hunker down and survive. I feel really sorry for the homeless.
Thank you Chris for working so hard to keep us updated.
I think the new snow will be powdery in nature. i think the winds or the strain on the grid will cause the outage but hey we have been through this before and made it just fine.
1-2 inch range in Butler County!!!!!
Thank you Chris for keeping us updated on this brutal weather I don’t think I’ve ever seen a winter quite like this in my 22-23 years i’m in shock. We all wanted the snow dome gone and I think this time it’s no where in sight. Blizzard conditions are crazy to even think about but being a weather lover i’m sure going to take video of it and be in amazement. In Lewis County we already have a good 4-5 inches of snow on the ground and I can’t wait to get more. Hoping everyone stays warm and safe if you are traveling in this upcoming weather but hopefully you won’t be no one needs to get hurt you can replace material things but you can’t replace yourself and check on elderly neighbors and family and keep your pets indoors!!! Can’t wait to see how this pans out!!!!
-6 here in elk fork in west liberty
lol. nobody asks for a tornado or a hurricane yet they’ll pray for more brutal cold and snow and that everyone survives it, all in the same sentence. I know what happens will happen regardless, so bring it on baby.
-10* in Cynthiana!
Yea – Winter lovers see something magical in snow and cold. But the beauty of it has its price..
MICHAEL T –
You’re right. The pipes come up from the ground through the foundation…….Even still, the brief noise last time we had below zero the water made that spurting noise when I first turned it on in the bathroom. I guess that’s why I was paranoid.
Oh, and a weather question
With the cold ,dry air, is there something different about this system that will not be affected by dry air?
I think on the cold dry air question, currently relative humidities are running about 75-80% through most of Kentucky. The dewpoints are actually fairly close to the temps. The NWS actually has it at 34 in Lawrenceburg tomorrow for a high. That must mean only one a thing–a south/southwest wind blowing in moisture from the gulf.
Winter weather advisory and finally a wind chill advisory. Better late than never I guess.
1.1 here in my part of Knott County. I like he snow but not this type of cold.
welcome back, Chris. thanks for staying on this wild weather!
blizzard conditions….crazy stuff for the SNOW starved.
ready for another round…be safe all!
We are starting to get into some interesting historical territory with below zero temps. Lexington has gone below zero for the 4th time this month. That’s the most of any month & winter season since 1993-1994 when January 1994 had 5. Looks like we will equal that this week. The next to go is the 1989-1990 season with 8, all in December 1989. The most below zero days for January is 7 set in 1977. And the most of any winter season ever is 12 in 1917-1918.
A top 10 coldest January is becoming increasingly likely. That has not happened since 1994. A top 10 coldest month ever will be tougher to crack but is still possible. That has not happened since December 1989.
NWS continues to do what they do best…a total disservice, by being conservative in their advisory and saying 1-3″ once again for Lexington to Louisville. No mention of blizzard like conditions or travel being highly discouraged.
I predict many unfortunate accidents tomorrow. Be safe everyone. I expect 3-6″ in Louisville area.
Must be where the voice of reason got his totals this morning.
Many unfortunate accidents happen in an inch of snow here in Louisville. LOL
Isn’t that the truth
NWS is a Nowcast organization, they under play every event based on past winters, this winter is not going by their normal way of thinking!
I know, Todd. Just like last time, they will probably put out WSW well after the snow starts cranking.
Thanks Chris and glad you are back safely. Thank you for all the time you put in. Loved playing with the kiddos in the dry snow this week. Not good for snowballs or snow-man making here in Mercer but good for the sled. Maybe this system will bring a wet snow-man making snow. Winter will then be complete in my books. I am just so glad we finally got some white precipitation here. On a more serious note, I think I will be letting some water drip from the faucets a few days next week after looking at the temps. Anyone else think the NWS is being a little conservative on the outlook from tonight thru next Thursday?
Yes, as always.
-8 in west liberty
Thanks a bunch Chris…. I am moving to Greater Antillies since its cold in Florida…. 🙂
I have a question…. Why is it that my I-Phone says that it’s -2 degrees Richmond but on this website it says it’s -11?
Thanks
-9 East Morehead 7:05 a.m.
The only thing that may impress me about the winter is the cold cause it sure ain’t the snow based on the lack of it
-0.5 at Topmost in Knott County as of now.
Just hit -10 in Lawrenceburg. I sure hope this is the coldest morning of the winter.
-11 according to my truck thermometer. -9 when I got into Versailles.
Should we believe the mesonet temperatures in Madison Count?y. I know the area and can’t see why they would be that different from everyone else.
According to Bubba last night it was way off
According to Bubba…..sounds like a good name for a sitcom. 🙂
he did say last night it was 3 when it was reading -7 last night and Jim had 3 last night on the 11 newscast for richmond
I know some other Richmond area readings were different but the mesonet site is in the rural area of the county, on a farm about 8 miles for Richmond. I wonder if they could be having some “micro-weather/climate” effects in the area dropping the temperature some.
I know there can be big temperature differences in a few miles. I had -10 at my house in Lawrenceburg this morning–talked to some folks who had temps ranging from -7 to -11 all within 15 miles. On cold, clear nights with light winds temps can range very differently depending upon location.
Hoping that “snow maker by the middle or end of next week” is a southern stream event. West Kentucky has barely been grazed by these clippers. Glad to see central KY finally get some snow love!
I hope so too, Joey. That is usually where we get good snows here in southern KY, from the southern jet. But we will have to wait and see…..
The southern fed storms can be a curse. All too often we see warm air wrapped up in the storm, basically shooting down any chance of an all snow event.
Southern fed storms even bring rain to nCentral KY most of the time, it almost has to be the perfect storm to get the moisture here without the warm air from the south!
Glad you made it back safely Chris! Welcome back to KY! I am hoping for some snow for us snow lovers down here in Southern KY. Thank you for the updates, and all of your hard work, even while you were away. I hope everyone stays warm and safe today, this weekend, and throughout the next week!
5 here in Somerset! Please say we aren’t going to get skipped this time, yet again! We are in the 2-4 for snow. I’m hoping for 4 or more, but would settle for 2! Please join me in a snow dance to break the dome over Somerset! 🙂
Welcome home Chris. Did you bring the Minneapolis weather with you? Nope? Well then you must have taken our weather to them. Saturday looks like a great day to satay inside and stay warm with a good book and college basketball….unfortunately, it is my Saturday to work. Bet I won’t be too busy though…….Well, get out and enjoy today everyone, and make preparations for the bad weather ahead! Have a great Friday, and thanks Chris for all you do!
It was -8 at 6:00 this morning in Load Ky.
Somerset still hasn’t had enough snow to make a snow ball. I wouldn’t mind getting the sled out.
Saturday looks wicked, and a good chance of laying down some decent snows. As with Sunday night, however, looks like we may surge above freezing at some point on Sunday afternoon. The NWS, at least here in SE KY, is forecasting upper 30’s before the arctic front barrels through later in the evening.
Thanks for the jinx Bryant
they were giving mid 40s 2 days ago went down to 38 and now back to 41
My neighbor collects the data for our area for the NWS. He reported the temp at 5 am at -10 in Grayson. That gives us three days in a row with lows below 0, -9, -6, – 10. I guess the odds have caught up with us and we are having our “real winter”.
Old Bubba was right….
Snow begets snow.
New Nam just came in and says accumulating snow for a good chunk of Kentucky. 2-5 isolated higher amounts will not shock me gusty winds whiteout conditions. Each in every run the nam wants to put more snow down. Would not at all be surprised by later today that some folks will go from a WWA to a WSW.
I agree, Prelude. Central and N Central KY will probably fall into a WSW at some point. Same could be said for the northern 2/3 of Jackson’s CWA. I think even the lower third to west of Pulaski will easily see 2-4″ of snow. Still little, if any, to western KY and the I65 corridor.
I-65 corridor runs through Louisville, Louisville looks good for a good thumping. North central part of I-65 if everything pans out should get thumped.
12Z NAM stays on course and even strengthens a bit it looks like. 0.25 to 0.50 QPF for a large area from just east of Owensboro, south to near Bowling Green, and east to Frankfort/Lexington. 0.10 to 0.25 QPF over the rest o East Kentucky. Sharp drop off west of Owensboro though. With the cold temperatures could we possible see a 15:1 or even a 20:1 ratio??
Some of the in house models are really giving a nasty looking deformation zone of snow that borders the river. In my opinion this clipper system looks to give more of a broader area of snow regionwide. Temps tonight might not fall past 20 degrees reason is the southerly winds that kick in this will enhance the snowfall basically give the atmosphere lift enhancing the snow keep temps from falling too much and im thinking the Nam is sniffing this out.
I know in Louisville most stations are going 1-3 inches one station is going 2-4 and that was before the latest run of the nam.
Looking at that map and seeing my area (lex) in 3-5″ range, makes me feel good. This snow will not have ANY trouble accumulating because of the already snow covered landscape and side streets. If not much of the snow melts Sunday, I’m worried the FCPS will close another week straight! And wheres our rolocoaster? Still sending thoughts and prayers to you rolo.
S T R A N G E
The water in my bathroom sink took 40 seconds to start coming out when I had it turned on HOT………When I turned cold on, it came out normally……Makes ZERO sense……I mean, the water goes from the hot water heater which is the middle of the house to the master bathroom, so it’s all in a heated area…….Yet the hot water didn’t wanna come out at first but the cold water ran fine? Confused……..At least it’s all running now…..
Mine froze up last night for the second time in two weeks on a 10 yr old home frustrating to say the least. 3 am water was working by 7am no water at all frozen pipes once again 🙁
Freezing rain falling in places like Houston, Baton Rouge, Lafayette LA. Even some freezing drizzle as far south as Corpus Christi TX. Snowing in Lake Charles LA. Sleet reported in Mobile AL.
Anyway, it dropped to 4 above in Nashville TN. At least there was no real wind chill this morning. All of the “steam” from heat flues was rising straight up, compared to yesterday when it was nearly horizontal 😉 .
But this warm wx person is starting to really want spring, but knowing we will have to suck it up for a while longer.
My baby sister lives in Kirbyville TX, south of Jasper and just north of Beaumont. She posted pictures of her kids in the snow. They are very near the Gulf coast.
This was our 5th below zero morning this month in Northern KY (-8,-7,-6, -1, -6 at the Boone Mesonet). Coldest temps in the Tri-State region (SE Indiana, N KY, and SW OH) was -12F in Vevay, IN (close to Carrolton, KY) and Oxford, OH (northwest of Cinci at Miami U).
I noticed yesterday that the mid sized to larger creeks are at about 3/4 frozen over will all small creeks / streams mostly frozen now. The large 20 acre lake across from my subdivision is completely frozen over now despite the work of hundreds of ducks and geeze that kept sitting on the edge of the ice. You have to wonder if they try to break off the ice with their feet or if them swimming around stirs up the water enough to slow freezing. Anyway… last night sealed the coffin, their ice free hole is now gone and so are they! Poor guys.
The Ohio river is forming shelf ice coming off of both sides of the banks, but most in this area don’t think it will be able to freeze over. It took weeks of below zero and blizzards dumping copious amounts of snow into it to clog it up from the tributaries and such.
Earlier this month I saw a cool sight when I crossed the river over in western Boone County… going into Indiana (like you are going to Perfect North if you are a skier). Tanners creek coming out of SE Indiana was clogged with ice flows and sending miniature “ice bergs” out into the river.
Ice Jams possible when we thaw out from this epic winter!
Yes, thats a concern especially if we rapidly thaw with a big rain. Its been so long since I have seen them around here I forget what the most dangerous weather setup is for them. Back in the 80’s when I lived in Nelson County (and was a kid) I saw them a lot on mid sized creeks that fed into the Salt river and a few other locations.
I’ve had the water freeze to my master bathroom toilet. It travels through 8 inches of a well-insulated outside wall. Not sure how I can fix this. It’s happened twice this year, but never before?
Put a bail of straw along the outside wall were the the pipe is …
Maybe you could adjust the float and let a little bit of water run through it. Just be sure to fix it back when it warms up.
Not a poster but have a question ………. Another weather site was just talking about the forecast for next Sunday (Super Bowl) and mentioned temps in New Jersey will be 30s/40s, slight chance of snow, but when on to mention a potential ice storm for TN valley and showed half of KY, talking about travel delays. Anyone heard anything ?
12Z GFS not as strong as NAM. Only 0.10-0.25 QPF from roughly Louisville eastward for all of Central and East Kentucky.
MJ has a good explanation for this on his Twitter feed. Seems like the GFS will be more of an outlier. MJ was thinking a widespread 3-6″
Sooo happy you’re back Chris, safe and sound…Somerset missed you!
Looks like it’s time for a milk and bread run…maybe some peanut butter
just in case the elctric goes off : ]
Would someone care to update what the maps show for Monticello/Wayne Co. area? Just curious if it’s still 1-2 range. Thanks!
12z NAM
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=12Z&STATIONID=MRX
12z GFS isn’t out yet, but here is the 06z
http://wxcaster4.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=06Z&STATIONID=MRX
Jackson NWS Snow map
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/jkl/StormTotal/StormTotalSnow.png
That GFS has been junk 24 hours or less out.
The NAM has been nailing these clipper systems 24 hours out.
I agree.
This isn’t a clipper system
Guess you need to take that up with the MET’s. That is what they are saying. It is coming from Canada. Not from the rockies and not from the gulf. Not from the Tennessee valley or the east coast or the lakes.
What is your name for it? Lol
I guess should have said too that the GFS and NAM include the snowfall expected Sunday night and Monday too, but the majority of this will be for Saturday’s system.
minus 5 on my thermometer at my house this morn but just past me up another holler they recorded minus 8,
Welcome back Chris thanks for all you do.Stay warm everyone.
Loving this weather! Looking forward to this system coming through.
Also remember the snow ratios will be high so if the nam does verifies it will be a decent snow even if the GFS verifies still looking at a general 1-4. But if the nam is right that 1-4 may turn into a 3-6 isolated higher amounts due to higher snow ratios.
What ratios are you thinking? 15:1 or higher maybe?
Yes sir 15:1 seems fair maybe 20:1
Chris saying temps will be interesting, I think that’s a understatement if we get into the 40s Sunday after dropping to near 0 Sunday morning with a fresh snow cover!
Never seen that happen, temps rising nearly 50 degrees in a few hours after a decent snow storm?
depending on how much snow gets put down. I do know this that warm air convection can be dominant I just don’t know if with a decent snowpack how dominant it will be for Sunday.Thats a real tough call
A Louisville met this morning said he was backing off the 40 something temps because of a very short window Sunday for it to warm that much, clouds will be increasing as the arctic front approaches and may also hold down temps! Will be a interesting battle!