Good Friday afternoon. This is a Winter Storm ALERT for central and eastern Kentucky. We have a HIGH impact storm taking aim at the state late tonight into Saturday. Snow and high winds will combine to cause near blizzard conditions and horrible roads. Here’s a breakdown…
– Snow moves in from the northwest tonight. It will be snowing everywhere by daybreak. – With a frozen ground… it won’ t take long for roads to become snow covered and dangerous.
– Winds will gust to 35-40mph at times and this will create near blizzard conditions at times.
– I do NOT recommend travelling late tonight into the first half of Saturday. This is the type of setup that can cause traffic nightmares and even brief road closures.
– I have made some adjustments to my snowfall forecast…
– Locally higher amounts will be possible. It should be noted that won’t really matter if you get 1″ or 6″ of snow… the impact to travel will be similar.
– This will be followed up by ANOTHER below zero night! Please spread the word… this is a HIGH IMPACT EVENT!
I’m back on your tube today and will have the latest updates on WKYT-TV starting at 4. We will also have team coverage from late tonight through Saturday. Updates will come this evening. Take care.
Thanks Chris. Looking forward to seeing you back on the tube tonight. Also looking forward to seeing your thoughts as this thing unfolds. Have a great Friday afternoon, everyone.
Thanks Chris, Everybody stay in and safe unless you have to go out tomorrow. Looks like a nasty weather setup
I don’t see any way possible that the temps get above freezing this weekend with the snow pack we will have by Saturday afternoon.
Strong southwest wind ahead of front will try. Takes longer for warm air to mix with cold air over the snowpack.
Chris , I’m not normally a fan of yours due to all the hype built into the forecast. But I must give credit where it is due, and you nailed this one from a week away. Keep up the good work and a little less hype from now on.
Thanks
I’m really curious to hear the opinion of Mr. Bailey on the dynamics that may lead to the warm up Sunday… but, of course, curiosity killed the cat!
And knowledge brought it back….
Like Chris said, stay off the roads late tonight and tomorrow. With snow and winds that high it wouldn’t take but a few minutes for frost bite and hypothermia (sp?) to set in. If you have a dog or cat, please bring them in tonight and tomorrow. Stay safe everyone.
Man, that 3-6″ line is so close to Laurel county, swing it down another thirty miles Bailey. Either way, looks like a good 3″ for Laurel and surrounding counties with isolated 4″ or higher amounts possible in spots.
Any chance CB will go with a live chat this evening?
It’s the same with Pualski County! Just swing down a little more! ❄⛄⛄❄
WAVE 3 in Louisville is saying 1 – 4 inches for Metro Louisville. I like this map better. And to think, I’m supposed to help my brother move tomorrow…
Chris, I love your blog! You are always accurate and do a fabulous job. Keep up the good work my friend! When we go to school I love showing my students your forecast. 🙂
Like that westward movement of some measurable snow. Paducah NWS isn’t as excited about this as Chris. Am guessing/hoping Chris is right!
I believe they’re like everyone else and gave up on snow awhile back. They don’t get excited about much anymore lol They have to see it to believe it.
I’m just curious as to why we aren’t looking at WSW if we are looking at 3-6″ of snow with high winds?
NWS is safe with WWA for now, may go WSW with more confirming model runs.
It’s coming. I mentioned that this morning. They really need to put the Watches out now. This event isn’t a joke and with only advisories out, that won’t be enough to discourage travel.
I fully expect many counties to be under Warnings for blizzard like conditions by early AM
Chris, arriving on Amtrak in Cincy ~1am. Do you expect conditions to be poor by that time? Trying to see if I need to make other arrangements. Other option would be Ashland around 10pm. Still need to make the drive back to Lexington. Thanks for any input. On the train now somewhere in VA.
Really hope this doesn’t turn to a bust (I do not think so) but still a chance. I would gladly take 3-6″. BTW, the Euro has been showing a snowstorm in ky for 4 straight runs for next weekend. IBIWISIFAFMR (I’ll believe it when I see it for a few more runs)
Just as I called it this morning. Well done Mr. Bailey
I don’t see how we hit 35 or above on Sunday here in the Lexington Metro with 3-6 inches of fresh snow. It is Chris Vs. the NWS. The NWS is forecasting close to 40 at this moment on Sunday.
Kevin Harned at Wave 3 said he thinks it will be up to 10 degrees colder on Sunday than what is being projected. I kind of agree with that, though I’ve seen some strange things this winter
agreed, in NKY we have been below the forcasted highs for a couple days now. we are at 11 degrees and the hourly forecast predicted 16 at this point…
NWS should know that models don’t pick up on stuff that’s on the ground, they are just being bullish on their thoughts of the South west winds overcoming our snow cover!
Sorry, he just said lower than projected and that he might even lower his temps more.
Lexington has maybe 1.5- 2 inches(Average) on the ground..Snow of course melting where it has been wind whipped. Add another 3-6″. NO WAY we get above 32 Sunday.
Louisville NWS likely to go to WSWatch or Warning later today.
I like CB’s exuberant forecast. So far, the 0z and 06z runs of the NAM have Louisville in a 2.3″ range, though, which produces a general range of 1-3″.
However, nowcast mode is taking over. Latest 18 hour run of the RAP put me at 4:00am showing a swath of moderately heavy snow from just north of Louisville to Cincinnati, rates approaching 1″/hr. Very similar to the last system, perhaps a tad farther northeast than Louisville.
Watch for the trends to see where these bands could set up.
If any upgrades from WWA’s, National Weather Service out of Wilmington and Jackson will have to make those calls. Not enough short range data for Louisville NWS yet for upgrade if one goes by the 12z NAM which spits out nearly 3″ for Louisville or 2-4″.
The trend from the NAM is increasing snow totals. But, I’m not using the NAM based on the 12z run but will use it for comparative purposes with the short term models.
One of the VERY few times I’m going to have to disagree with you.
I see Louisville easily in the 3-6″ range. This time tomorrow, we all will know, lol.
If banding occurs 3-6 could be met. I think banding will occur but it’s almost impossible to specifically point out who will get the banding of the snows.
I need to take my son back to WKU tomorrow. Are we far enough west of this that travel would be okay? Any answers and opinons are most appreciated.
We “suggested” to our daughter to go back today to be safe….we live in Lawrenceburg..I’ve heard a few Dorms on campus are without all or some power as well..If in Bates Runner, they are being asked not to arrive until Sunday…just a heads up..
Oh wow! Thanks so much for that information! I’ll have him double check.
Looks good. Nice to see totals increasing and map expanding just before the storm. Past winters, maps moved in the opposite direction as we got closer. Maybe we will hit on high end of totals.
HA we wont be so lucky Bryant already jinxed it lol
I was wondering the SAME thing. A fresh snow, blowing around all over the place, only to warm up to near 40 the next day……..I mean, doesn’t snow act like a refrigerator? This has been discussed about how snow pack causes temps to tank……..Why would this be any different?
the majority of the models having difficult time with temperature profiles when there is snow on the ground..
if it snows tonight I doubt Louisville will get much about 32 degrees.
If we get 3 or more inches of snow 35-40 seems high to me. I could see a situation where SW KY hits 50 and Central and North KY struggles to hit 32.
When does the next run of the models come out?
18Z NAM comes out around 3:30 p.m for public, 18Z GFS comes out around 5:30 P.M. These are general times
Upslope would you care to post the link for these when they come out?
To my untrained eye the 18z NAM looks to follow suit with the previous runs. Louisville on east toward Frankfort and Lexington look to be in the sweet spot.
Can you post what you are looking at plz?
Can you post what you are looking at plz?
Go here :
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20140124%2018%20UTC¶m=precip_p03&fourpan=no&imageSize=M
Click on precip_p03 in the top left and then loop all in the bottom right.
To get the total liquid precip amounts go to the same link, but click on precip_ptot and then loop all. Some of the precip toward the end of the loop though will be from the Sunday/Monday system.
Thanks Big Papa!
I’ve noticed that those sweet spots can shift 50 miles in any direction like the last storm did over Louisville! Some spots got over 5 inches their when the forecast said 1-2 in that area!
WHAT A WINTER!!! This kind of stuff is enough to impress eskimos!
Should be interesting to see which areas get under the heavier snow bands and see more than 4 inches of snow.
On the flip side…I’m heading up to and flying out of Cincy to Denver Sunday night and hoping we make it toward 40 like some mets are saying so that salt will work better on the roads. Any degree above freezing will be better than what we’re used to lately!
Can’t wait to see how much we get!!! By the next run of the models, I hope we are in 3-6 inches. We still have plenty of snow on the ground here. Can’t wait to hear your forecast this evening on WKYT!
NWS still saying 1-3 from Louisville to Lexington, their not budging on their thoughts, I guess their buying the GFS, where Chris is going with the NAM!
Lets see you wins, my money’s on Chris 🙂
If they are really using the GFS, that is mind boggling.
WHO 😉
NWS is being conservative they know there is going to be issues were all on a high end advisory the evening and overnight shift will evaluate more. The banding of the snow is also a issue where it develops and who gets it. There just really no way to tell what county or county’s get the heavier banding of snow until it literally starts developing. NWS knows that some county’s are going to get warning criteria there going to go on a case to case bases.
That being said…why not issue a Winter Storm Watch instead. It does a couple of things; helps get more people off the roads and more aware, while at the same time not committing to a warning until the set up of banding developes and they can adjust watches to warnings and or advisories accordingly.
Chris even has temps below freezing on Sunday. NWS still has 38 for Central KY. If we don’t get above freezing, and get the 3-6 inches (instead of 1-3) I would say -15 might happen. -10 this morning was enough for me!
I dont think Ive ever seen a more conservative bunch than the NWS. They’ll go with the lowest amount pretty much every time.
What happened to forecasting. It seems the NWS is so model dependent nobody wants to put their neck on the line anymore. It’s not forecasting if you are telling us what it is already doing. Thank goodness for this blog
Good Point!
I think you’re being a bit unfair to the NWS. They’re skilled professionals and, along with the model output, they also have their experience and the past history in similar scenarios from which to draw. And let’s be honest, the more conservative viewpoint has won out when it comes to winter weather in and around Kentucky for more than 25 years.
Is there any chance that this storm could over produce snow totals similar to the storm earlier this week?
yes and it is more likely than not.
Remembering the winters of 70s, and sometimes the 80s and 90s, our current period of weather seems more comforting than alarming. I guess too many years of not having distinct seasons has been a bad influence on the population in general.
Tomorrow looks to be beautiful.
One thing I have noticed here lately is there has been much more information shared and questions asked/answered along with much less griping, complaining, and trash talking than there was in December and first part of January. I guess this has mostly to do with a lot more people getting snow. I must say, the comments section has been a lot better to read lately though.
I agree with you. I enjoy it a whole lot more.
Dodger says yes people in here happier with recent snows. Me? I want to be delirious with much more SNOW! Dodger!
You think us here in northeastern Kentucky will fair well!?
Chris just said Sundays high might reach 30, big difference from the 40s some folks are calling for!
Posted wrong spot 😉
NWS in Charleston WV is forecasting less than 1 inch tonight and 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow for Grayson Ky. They have lowered temps for Sunday and the days following. I am amazed that they have an advisory for our area. They have ignored us most of the winter.
Wsaz is always very conservative
I’ve noticed that. We could be looking at a foot and they would call for two inches. Not trying to bash another news station or anything, I just don’t like the fact that they nearly always forecast a an inch or two no matter what the models are saying.
Whats up for Bowling Green, and WKU? Wbko doesn’t have it looking this bad, they only predicting a dusting, an inch at the most.
AEP is already concerned about power outages for next week. My heat pump can not keep up with the cold and runs constantly. Fortunately I have a wood burning insert and have been able to keep a fire going today to give it some rest. I hope that the grid is able to handle the demand next week. Hopefully the schools will power down all non-essential electronics next week since they will be closed again and conserve as much power as possible. I am worried about the elderly and poor in our communities who might supplement heat with unsafe methods.
Who is AEP?
American Electric Power.
18Z NAM
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=JKL
Part of this is for the Sunday/Monday system, but the majority is for Saturday.
Could you include the whole state of Kentucky next time? Pretty please?
18z NAM centered at Louisville.
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=LVX
Well, so much for the calm winds we had early this morning! Very gusty, I once again hear some eerie whistling sounds throughout the building here at work!
This wind chill negates somewhat the “warmer” conditions of today (currently 28 in Nashville, 24 in Louisville).
Interesting that so far, no Winter Storm Warning for parts of Kentucky and no Winter Weather Advisories for parts of Tennessee (just a Special Weather Statement).
NWS Jackson issued a new snowfall map:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/jkl/StormTotal/StormTotalSnow.png
This weather is fantastic! Hoping to get blasted here in NKY!
Armagedon
On John Belski’s blog, he just noted Jay Cardosi was considering lowering WLKY’s snowfall totals if the evening model run trends continue. The NAM is known for overdoing it so I guess he’s going with the GFS and the Euro.
Who knows what to expect? Get 10 different forecasts around here.
More than likely, short-term models like SREF and RAP
From the crowd in my Kroger we’re expecting snowmageddon
Jay Cardosi from WLKY in Louisville said new data was coming in and he was going to lower the snow totals.
Oh well, so much for that, LOL.
He is a notorious down player, he said 1 inch the last storm, missed it by 4 inches??
And Chris said is in house models where matching his 3-6 inch thoughts! Let the games begin?
His
Cardosi also has an in-house model that he and his other forecasters have created. John Belski said it was quite good at determining the rain/snow line although that’s not the issue here. Cardosi is a notorious down player, but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong.
What is this new data on which Jay Cardosi is relying? Has the GFS come in with lower totals? Since the Euro is only run twice a day, we won’t hear about the 0Z run for another four or five hours.
Surprisingly, Marc Weinberg on 41 was quite optimistic when he gave out his snow totals. Normally, he doesn’t overreach on snow storms. Severe weather is another thing though.
Well one good thing they were forecasting lower numbers toward Louisville anyway, I guess we will just have to NOWcast here in Central and east KY!
Even with all the technology and models these days that’s usually what happens anyway. You cannot take any one model verbatim. Sometimes the solution isn’t in any of the models.
The NAM looks healthy, the GFS has been described, even by the NWS as more an outlier. So which model is Cardosi going on? Is the short range model (RUC) out yet?
I grew up and lived part of my adult life in Louisville, I know Cardosi well, he is the modern day version of Tom Wills, lol.
I find it odd, but the humidity has fallen all day on a strong south wind. We’re down to 47% here now. It better pick back up in a hurry or we’ll have a virga blizzard!
Noticed that for my area. Mesonet reports 39% humidity now. We actually received about 6 inches of snow here from the last storm. The one before it was all virga with the radar looking good for quite a few hours. That storm started with very low humidity as well. Truthfully, without them bringing my heating fuel I have to hope for a miss. Roads have been fine for 2 days, I went out in my van on a clear road, but they said ice is keeping them from getting here. With this snow and then the cold I am sure it will be more than a week before they can bring any.
CB is covered unless a big miss to the north. Look at his map lows: 1″ to 3″. Even if CB thinks it would be lower overall, he will probably not adjust as a result. The only revision would be if he thinks it is going to do more.
Given our repeat misses, why would anyone here be surprised if it does trend lower? One (on average) ankle biter doth not a trend maketh’.
Wow, there’s so many weather “sources” these days. The weather models (GFS, Euro, NAM etc) the NWS relies on plus most TV stations have their own weather models plus a lot of private weather sources like Accuweather, WeatherBell and many others. Most of these sources have their own meteorologists with their inherent biases etc. It’s enough to keep us weather fans confused!
I use the CB traffic rate that has been 100% accurate. If a forecast is trending same or more, the CB tweet and post rate is higher than if trending down. This has never not been the case. Downward trends have greater traffic gaps.
I think I could tell by the wording on TV that Chris is not 100% sure with this storm, he ended tonight’s news saying 1-6 inches for central and east KY, 2 or 3 is probably more realistic for most of us!
The traffic rate will tell the tale. Back on it 😉
Bank. It is as almost as stable as gold. Well, when gold Was stable
Now that’s a Whitaker Bank Shot!
41 said he was lowering totals slightly because new data has suggested higher totals and he is not ready to bite on that yet. So you adjust your totals from your original ones that were actually higher to begin with I am confused lol?
Most mets are considering the results and persistent model misses as part of the equation. Hence the skepticism.
One thing I look at, and I know it’s entirely unreliable, lol, is the chatter on CB’s and MJ’s Twitter. Both are unusually quiet, for what it’s worth. If all is still on, I would think that CB would update the blog at some point this evening.
There is more consistency with this blog over the numerous forecasts thrown at us. Sure CB might change it but he is never trigger happy over one model run.
CB, in baseball terms, would be batting about .400 and looking at an MVP. He was pretty bullish on the cold locking in, and that was back around the holidays. And, CB has been pretty close to snow totals with the arctic front that have crashed through.
Kroger sales on Nicholasville Road in Lex coming home tonight will single handedly cause a huge Wall Street surge on Monday. Geez, had to park in Cincinnati.
Sold my motorcycle today to a guy who wears a lot of turtlenecks.
Folks if you get a chance look at the latest radar returns in Minnesota and Iowa this thing looks like its rapidly developing a large area of snow, That’s why I’m all about Nowcasting these storms and not watching computer models that have a poor record in this area at best!
Agreed. There are too many mets who rely solely on these models for a forecast which are usually poor at best. The models are meant for guidance, meaning they are meant to give us some direction on the way the weather “might” swing…..leaving the met with the knowledge to study and apply an educated prediction. IMO, Chris and Todd Howell from WBIR Knoxville are the best in this area at putting the puzzle left from the models together to make a generally good educated call. I truly believe that “most” (not all) the others simply build a forecast on what their favorite models say, word for word without putting any more thought into the forecast process.
Getting an accumulation forecast at this point is like throwing a dart while blind. The Jackson office, in their text forecast, advertises 1-3,” yet on their graphic box, they have a widespread 2-4,” which just happens to match up well with CB’s snow forecast. Todd mentioned that CB was on the 1-6″ idea . Cardosi in Louisville isn’t impressed, and WDRB’s Weinberg is on the fence. MJ on his Twitter this afternoon thought a broad area of 3-6″ was possible. So, pick your poison. At least, at this point, we don’t have to worry about rain eating into snow totals.
I thought MJ was a met at LMK? Why would other forecasters have different opinions than his? This large area of snow has expanded much earlier than they thought it would. It wasn’t supposed to expand (in sq miles) until after midnight. I am calling this an overachiever.
I don’t understand why some areas aren’t under a WSW. With the anticipated snowfall, wind and cold; these should have been issued. Below is the criteria for a WSW from Winter Weather page; NWS Louisville.
Winter Storm Warning
Issued if there is a high probability that severe winter weather will occur, such as heavy snow or sleet, significant accumulations of freezing rain or freezing drizzle, or any combination of these. Issued normally for the first period forecast, i.e. less than or equal to 12 hours in advance of the event. A winter storm warning may be extended into the second period of the forecast if necessary.
Just came in from locking up the chicks. Let me say this something wicked this way comes, winds are howling and the temp has risen several degrees I think we’re in for a goodin.