Good Friday evening. I wanted to drop by to for a quick update on the Winter Storm Alert for overnight into Saturday. I have no changes to my thinking from earlier. This is going to be a high impact storm that will cause all kinds of travel issues.
I will have your final call for snowfall map on WKYT-TV tonight at 11. We will also have team coverage beginning tomorrow morning at 6am and your friendly weatherdude will be back in for that. Sleep is for the weak!
Let’s not forget about the next rounds of bitterly cold that’s coming. The air behind tomorrow’s system will likely take our Sunday morning readings toward 0 or a bit below. It’s the next round that is likely to bring the coldest of the winter.
That arrives with a burst of snow Sunday night and Monday morning. Temps by Tuesday morning may get crazy. Check this out…
BRUTAL! Readings may go below zero again for the following morning as single digit highs remain. There’s a light snow system lurking for the end of the week as the bitterly cold eases for a bit. That easing may set the stage for several snow systems coming from the west and southwest.
Don’t be surprised if the brutal stuff makes another run at us a few weeks down the road.
Have a great evening and take care.
Thanks Mr. Bailey
I live in vanceburg my….on are TV cable we can only get west Virginia channel’s….. so I’m glad that I can get you on my phone…..
Are we expecting a huge surge in humidity with this event? Because we’re still sitting at 44% here. Seems conducive to virga and not snow?
You don’t have to have high humidity to support snow.
Chris,
I will say that this winter HAS been as cold as advertised, if not moreso. The snowfall so far has been on par with average totals. If we are average in one department and above average on another, I would say that was a pretty good winter overall for us “winter lovers.” This is what I, personally, like to see on occasion. I hope all those who are impacted (which looks to be a large portion of the viewing audience,) stay safe and don’t take any unnecessary risks during the storm early this morning into Saturday.
🙂
For some they have had average or above but some have yet to hit 2 inch totals for the season
Andy,
Snow does not make a winter by itself. It is disheartening to have a very cold winter with little snow, but one need to look back to 1989 to see this. There was very little snow compared to average, but it it was still remembered as a tough winter. Most winters are measured by their cold air here, as opposed to snow. Southern Kentucky still stands a fair chance of seeing at least 3″ in a snowfall before the winter is over.
To date, we’ve had nearly 8 inches here. Last year was close to 4, and the year before maybe 2.5 to 3 inches.
Thanks Chris. Hoping for some snow love out if this one. Southern Ky is starving for a good snow! Have a great evening all. Stay safe and warm and keep an eye on weather conditions. Chris, see you at 11.
what is the timing of this snow here in East KY?
Cold has been impressive, no doubt about it. However, for those of us living in Somerset, significant snows have been a no show so far. It used to be defined as 4 or more inches, but given the trend of the last 10-15 years 2 inches would be considered such here. Would like one good one this year with all the cold that’s been available thus far. Nevertheless Chtis you have done a great job forecasting this year for the majority of your audience. Please everyone, if kit gets as bad and stays as bad as Chris us indicating in the upcoming days, monitor people in questionable health or living condition closely as well as animals. It has been and will likely be life threatening! God bless!!
Chris has the highest amount in Louisville over all the Louisville mets. Most are saying 1-3 or 2-4 for Louisville. I wonder if Chris’ 3-6 will pan out.
I think 6 will be very isolated, 2-4 is going to be more common, but if this blows up ill take 8-10 🙂
8-10″ will happen in extreme rare cases. Look at one report from Hazel Green out of the LAST system. Unless that report was falsified or incorrectly reported due to measuring standards, some places could get that high, but it’s not going to be the norm.
Spelling is not a strength when trying to walk outside and post on your iPhone!! Stay safe everyone!!
Hmmmm…not upping the ante anymore….I see his final call going back to this morning first call. Not as robust as second thought. Do agree with high impact for some. Hell we get one inch of snow here in Louisville and it is high impact. Ha ha… Phone I am wrong, but if CB thought more snow was on the way he would have stated it. Will need to start now casting for the rest of this event. Have enough salt on truck to Greg me through the Sunday system after that I will need to reload. Here is to an overachiever……THINK RAIN!
He said he has no changes to his thinking. Seems pretty simple to me.
CB also has a wide range too. 1″ to 6″ is a lot of hedge funding 😉 As a result, it could be the low end and still be in the range of what he’s thinking.
Just a few hours to see if CB backs off some. Not seeing the map increased, but a fool for the trend.
Some people would just rather be right so they have a reason to keep talking about trends year after year.
I would much rather be wrong with my own feelings of the trend. For many, the trend has been somewhat or completely broken but it has yet to break for those of us in the southern tier and western counties.
Three inches overall for the area. That’s my final forecast and I’m sticking to it.
You make it seem like he has 1-6″ throughout the whole state. He has it broke down into regions as he sees it. Do you want him to give a county by county run down to the thousandths place?
I am talking for the Lou. Metro. We will not see three inches.
Why not Bjenks 3 is very obtainable for Louisville, Louisville is already at there season average for the year. I don’t see any reason Louisville could not get 3 inches
Not referring to the map here, but his wording on TV that he used AFTER the map was posted. His tone then did not come across as certain as his posts here, as far as snow.
You can here it in his tone. Not going to be as a big as a snow event as his 2nd thought. Lou. will NOT get 3-6 inches of snow as his previous post suggest. Cold ground and 2 inches will still be high impact for are area.
Agreed. Couple inches seems about right. CB’s emphasis like the other events seems more fixed on the cold and wind. Kind of like cold & wind are the majority of the event. Not long to find out.
Other mets seem to have already buckled to Jeff’s favorite word from the cloud: Trend. Can you blame them? Results have a tad heavier weight than a forecast.
I don’t think he went up or down in regards to snow totals. This isn’t a major, phased storm coming out of the south and riding up the Apps. 2-4″ widespread amounts with blowing snow should create a ton of difficulties tomorrow.
share the love for us here in east tn…lol…snowstarved !!!…but sure cold…I have been seeing where the southern branch of the jetstream may finally be waking up…..and unleashing some good ole fashioned southern snowstorms our way…..
Haven’t had enough to share
Whatever snow falls I will take better an inch or two compared to none. Great forecasting Chris keep up the good work we all appreciate what you do here.
So many “meteorlogists” in here, wow im out.
Folks interpreting what CB saying is not being a met. The key is will there be as much snow expected or less? A snow that makes roads not safe seems a lock. CBs call will be on TV with his final call on the 11PM news.
I’m not a meteorologist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.
Per the latest AFD from Jackson NWS, snowfall looks to be in line with the latest NAM runs. They’re still going with widespread 2-3″ amounts by Saturday evening, with 4″ amounts possible locally.
i can see CB is coming around to my thinking…a few days ago I said a dusting to 6 inches….and I ll stick with it
As Papa noted, big state and CB already shows more emphasis to the north for totals. Lame guess is the map might be a blend of his last two.
you could very well be correct
I would think, playing the law of averages, after all of this cold finally decides to ease up, we should be looking at an early spring. I hope so. Last years winter was nothing to write home about, and the cool, but not cold weather, hung around all the way up into May. I would rather take the cold in December-February and let the warmer weather show up in March.
Guess I should be excited about the approaching snow, but Knox Co. still sitting at less than 2 inches with all this artic outbreak. Looks to be on the low end of the totals with this one too. I guess I can’t complain though, because Somerset basically gets nothing every year.
I’m a winter weather fan but I agree with you on a warm early spring thought, sounds great!
Temps have rose several degrees here since turning dark, I’m banking on an inch maybe 2 here in knott co
Down to 15 here at Topmost in Knott Co. Brad
Temps rising but staying well below freezing wouldn’t affect snow totals.
Marc Weinberg suggests the new NAM is a bit drier than it was earlier in earlier runs. He’s calling for 1-3 in the Louisville area with 2-4 north and east of the city.
He actually said he would add another inch to his totals. Said the NAM sees two distinct waves that the Euro and GFS can’t see because the NAM is a high resolution model.
He tweeted this towards 9:30 PM.
I read that on his blog. Basically he is saying two different things so he cant be wrong. Sounds about right for him.
Seems like the NAM is pushing things through a little faster. I’m also not impressed by those 1 inch reports across MN and northern IA. Though the storm should strengthen as it moves toward the OV. On a side note, I think MW can stop pointing at us viewers during the teases…its getting old. 🙂
The radar looks impressive, but I guess most isn’t making it to the ground.
(MW?) pardon my ignorance. What am I missing?
Marc Weinberg I’m guessing. Not from Louisville.
Snow made to Indy and heading right at us. Will be surprised if we don’t get 3 inches or more in Central KY. Just my take! WW
15 here in greenup..heck we still
Have about 3 1/2 inches on the ground
Wow. Some of you are nuts. I had to sell my motorcycle today because Chris says its going to get bad cold. You people that whine and question about snow predictions crack me up. I had to get rid of the babe magnet. Now I’m just another ginger at Fourth Street Live.
Keep away from the womens volleyball team.
Women’s volleyball rocks!
Snow lovers remind me of Justin Beiber fans 🙂
Your so not funny:(
i’m Hilarious 🙂
Extra cold and snow for you. Hah!
Barb send your unwanted snow to frankfort please! Thanks!
Wish i could, tired of snow and cold weather. Praying for this round to be an underachiever. 🙂
You remind me of the beebs current cell mate :p
Why exactly are you on this blog? I’m a snow lover,but no Beiber fan. You know almost everyone on this site is a snow lover,so do you just love to pop in and antagonis everyone.
An antagonizer wolf in sheeps clothing?
I like that Bubba. Very sheep like indeed.
Im sick of you attacking me ben.. Ive noticed you bully alot of people on here. Youre the only true bully on here.
Really enjoyed the break. Too bad it’s over.
man that radar does look impressive! more so than the last round and it did pretty well as I recall…
hope it holds together and makes it to the ground.
think SNOW and be safe all!
3″to 4″ of snow with high wind would seem like twice that amount. At least until the wind stops blowing. I guess you can say that for any snow amount.
Is that a dry slot forming out around Springfield, IL or is that lack of radar coverage? I’m looking at this radar:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kentucky/weather-radar?play=1
It will be hard to measure this new snow. I really don’t want to see any colder than -10 next week.
Anticipating the coating coming to Knox County 😉
I’m a winter weather fan– but I’ve had enough. I’ll send a inch or two of snow and some -10 weather down your way. 🙂
Thanks
Andy, if it makes you feel better you can have my snow 🙂
Winter Storm Warning coming from NWS….
THE 18Z GFS AND 0Z NAM HAVE A BIT HIGHER QPF FROM 12Z TO 18Z FROM JACKSON AND ESTILL COUNTIES SOUTHWEST TOWARD WAYNE COUNTY AND THEN EAST ACROSS LAUREL COUNTY TO WESTERN HARLAN COUNTY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 22Z HRRR DATA IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF THAT PERIOD NEARER TO THE TN BORDER INCLUDING OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND…WE HAVE OPTED TO UP QPF IN THAT
AREA FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY PERIOD AND THIS ALSO UPPED SNOWFALL AS WELL. AT THIS POINT…WE ALSO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FROM 6Z TO 18Z A BIT TO ABOUT 13:1 OR NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. THIS LED TO VERY MINOR CHANGES AND BRINGS
AMOUNTS TO A SOLID 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT…THE WSW STILL LOOKS WARRANTED AND VALID TIMES ALSO LOOK GOOD. THE UPDATED SNOWFALL STILL FITS WITHIN THE
EARLIER RANGES SO NO CHANGES TO THE WSW TEXT PRODUCT ARE EXPECTED.
Is that for morgan co
Because it look like Chris just took us out ofthe 3 to 6 down to the 2 to 4
So it is a blend of his last two maps. Slight backtrack then?
Harlan, Jackson, Laurel, etc.
But there isnt a WSW just a WWA
I know, but I suppose the WSW text product is ready to come out? Maybe at 11:00? We’ll see. Interesting in the heavy precip shift our way during the latest model run, according to NWS.
The WSW in the text is just a Winter Storm Message which could mean an Advisory, Storm Watch or Storm Warning. In this case it’s a Winter Weather Advisory. They did up their totals in the southern part of their area though to 2-4″ nearly everywhere but Middlesboro and a little bit west of there that stayed in the 1-2″.
Thanks for the explanation.
Hopefully, that 1-2″ for Middlesboro won’t become 2-3 tenths of an inch as it has for every system we have had since October. …
Bubba my favorite word from the cloud is bacon. Now THAT is “trendy”.
And tasty.
Didnt see anything that much different in Chris’s new map
Could u post a link..I don’t get wkyt
Prob hasnt posted it yet but it will be on the wkyt website
Dodger thinks snow and windy is almost here! Bring it ON! Dodger!
Knox is actuall the coldest spot on the mesonet site and its accurate i double checked my thermometer
Just let the dog back in and was surprised how cold it felt. I would say your thermometer is right Andy. Guess the front being closer to the north west part of state may be keeping it warmer up that way.
Southern Indiana radar returns not as impressive as earlier, hopefully this isn’t a trend? Seems some dry air mixing in the closer to the Ohio river it gets!
Looks fine to me..see some heavier bands on the radar
Wonder if this first stuff on radar is hitting the ground in southern Indiana??
Dropped 7 dbzs. So losing a little strength.
Some snow getting ready to cross the river. I will let you know Todd very shortly.
CB mentioned blowing snow in a tweet, but that is snow that was already on the ground. That is some dry stuff to be around a few days and then still be able to blow around like that.
Seems areas could see about 2″ out of this (3″ tops), but good luck defining a general total. Half inch in one spot and 5″ at the next spot. I was thinking yesterday this could exceed the last event, but not seeing that now. For the folks that got 3″ to 4″ that is. For others just an inch or two exceeds the last event.
Sounds goid to me 🙂
Sounds good to me 🙂
Barb. Just wanted to apologize for offending you. I will take all your snow in the future if you don’t want it. Stay safe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_zmhaGBO1o&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Har har har…..
http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/indiana/weather-radar?play=1
Looks good to me, especially for central on east
There is a really nice band of snow out in S.Illinois. Somewhere between Paducah and Owensboro could pick up a quick inch or two just out of that band.