Good Sunday to one and all and Happy Thanksgiving. Wait… what? You mean this is only the third day of October? Well.. the weather out there sure has a very different feel to it as highs today will be about where they should be for Thanksgiving week with much of the state staying in the low to middle 50s. Throw in some clouds and the occasional shower and you have me ready for some turkey and dressing. Gobble Gobble.

Speaking of chilly… give it up for those low temps Saturday morning as several spots dipped into the mid and upper 30s for the first time this year.

A strong cold front worked across the area Saturday evening bringing much cooler air and some scattered showers with it. This followed what was a gorgeous first half of the day. The chill will grow stronger over the next couple of days as a cut off low pressure sits and spins across the Ohio Valley. This is basically a very cold pool of air that is trapped without the normal steering currents to move it along. Underneath these systems you typically get chilly temps with a lot of clouds and scattered showers and that is exactly what is on the menu for a few days. Given the orientation of the upper low… the highest chance for rains will be across the eastern half of the state.

Track today’s showers here…

Not everyone is going to get in on the turkey day weather across Kentucky. The western half of the state will see more of a partly cloudy sky allowing temps to warm into the lower 60s.  This is also the part of the state that should wake up to temps in the 30s for a lot of areas. This setup should be rather similar over the next few mornings and I simply cannot see how western Kentucky escapes all this without getting, at least, some patchy frost.

You can track today’s temps courtesy of the good folks at Kentucky Mesonet…

Current

Today’s Highs

Today’s Lows

The models continue to vary on the exact placement and strength of the upper level low. The NAM model continues to be the most aggressive of the bunch as it shows moisture wrapping in across the eastern half of Kentucky all the way through Tuesday. It does so because it actually strengthens the upper low quite a bit over the next few days. You can see this “bowling ball of energy” here…

That is a very impressive upper low for this any time of year… but especially for early October. As a matter of fact… this run of the NAM keeps that upper low in place into Wednesday. That may be a bit overzealous… but the overall idea is likely spot on.

It is also showing the most rainfall for the region so let’s cheer it on. Here is the rain map from Sunday through Tuesday…

We shall see how this exactly plays out in the coming days… but our late November chill is certainly going to be with us. Have a great Sunday and pass me the gravy.

Take care.