Good Monday everyone. Here is hoping the blog finds you in fine shape as we begin the first full week of October. The weather of late has been more like November as a lot of areas have been seeing low clouds, showers and highs struggling to get into the lower 50s. The same setup should continue for a few more days before we break out into some very nice fall conditions. Oh yeah… the blog gives winter weather fans some good stuff to chew on for a bit.

Today is going to feature very similar weather to what we had out there Sunday. Clouds, scattered showers and chilly temps in the east with some sunshine and 60s in the west. Here is a look at how the state’s weather forecast breaks down today…

You can track the scattered showers here…

Temps will again be on the chilly side in the east as some areas do well to hit the low 50s again. Follow the thermometers here…

Current

Today’s Highs

The big slow moving cut off low pressure will continue to impact the weather around here into Tuesday and likely into Wednesday. I just don’t see very much change as this is a what you see is what you get pattern for a few more days. Highs will continue to run in the chilly 50s in the east to the milder 60s across the west. More in the way of scattered showers will be noted across the east right on into early Wednesday.

A gorgeous stretch of fall weather is setting up for the end of the week into the coming weekend. Sunny skies and temps in the 70s will return for several days in a row.  A day or two early next week may see temps cracking the 80 degree mark. The warmer air shouldn’t have a lot of staying power as some of the indices I start looking at this time of year suggest a return to chilly temps by mid month. The GFS Ensembles agrees with how this all plays out. You can see the change in temp anomalies here…

Hopefully we can get some much needed rains with that temp transition from above normal to below normal.

For those of you looking ahead to winter… the Louisville Courier Journal recently did a story on Folklore Weather signs about the upcoming cold season. The highlight of any folklore winter forecast in Kentucky is usually that of famed “Dr. of Barnyard Science” Dick Frymire. Mr. Frymire has been issuing winter forecasts for this region for decades and here is what the “science” is telling him for this winter…

“Forecast give or take two days. If a heavy fog comes in before nightfall and lingers until 11 p.m. on any of the first 10 days of January, the winter will be worse than anticipated.”


Oct. 18 : Light frost

Nov. 14 : Killing frost

Nov. 20 : Flurries

Nov. 22 : Tracking snow (11:20 a.m.)

Nov. 26 : Snow, 1 inch

Dec. 22 : Snow, 2 inches

Jan. 5 : Coldest day of the year, 12 degrees below zero

Jan. 13 : Sleet and hazardous driving

Jan. 15 : Snow, 6 inches

Jan. 21 : Snow, 5 inches

Jan. 23 : Snow, 3 inches

Feb. 7 : Snow, 2 inches

Feb. 23 : First robin

March 22 : Snow, 1 inch

March 26 : 64 degrees

April 2 : Last snow (flurries)

Here are some of the other highlights from the article…

– Bill Mardis, “The Sage of Somerset” and columnist and editor emeritus of the Commonwealth Journal in Somerset, Ky., predicts a cold and snowy winter in Pulaski County, Ky. His official weatherwoman, Norma Lester, tallied 17 foggy mornings in August.

“So we predict 17 snows deep enough to track a rabbit,” said Mardis, who has been spinning his down-home forecasts for at least four decades. “All of the woolly worms … are solid black, so that means the weather will be cold. Of course, it needs to be cold for 17 snows.”

Mardis, 79, has a loyal following of weather watchers who also report to him on hornets’ nests and katydids.

“The hornet report is that the nests will be 10-15 feet up in a tree or on a pole or under an eave of a house, meaning the drifts will be pretty high.”

– Forget barometers, thermometers, maples and mists, just give retired teacher Alene Horner a handful of persimmon seeds and she’ll chart the winter season.

This year, the spoon-shaped hearts indicate lots of snow, said Horner, 83, a persimmon-pudding devotee who also predicts very cold weather based on the four solid-black woolly worms she examined.

“My success rate is about as predictable as a TV meteorologist’s,” said Horner with a laugh. (Watch it lady! )

I have probably been asked about my winter thoughts more this year than any other year before and that is saying something. I have put out back to back pretty good winter forecasts and I am hoping to make it three in a row, but this one has me tossing and turning more than usual. I went on record more than a month ago with my thinking this would be more of a front weighted winter and that it would get off to a pretty early start. I have yet to see anything to change my thoughts on it all. If all goes as planned… the second half of winter would be a lot milder. That said… there are some things i am finding lately to suggest that may not entirely be the case. Either way… we will be talking more and more about winter over the next few weeks.

Have a great Monday and take care.