Good Friday everyone and welcome to October! September wrapped up on a pleasant enough note and we say goodby to yet another warm and dry month and hello to one that promises to start off on a very chilly note during week number one. Speaking of saying hello… I will be at the Kentucky Apple Festival in Paintsville today so look me up if you will be taking in one of the states finest festivals.

As far as the weather goes today… it just doesn’t get a whole lot better. Highs will be in the upper 60s in the east and low and mid 70s for the west as sunny skies will be with us again. What a gorgeous start to the new month!

Saturday will start nice enough ahead of a cold front that will be barreling across the state from northwest to southeast late in the day. Winds will crank up ahead of the front as temps make a run toward 70 with some early day sunshine. Clouds will quickly increase in the afternoon and a line of gusty showers will move into town by evening. The NAM shows this well…

That isn’t a ton of water by any means… but the line of showers will take care of an temps near 70 as readings plunge into the 50s by early evening. Much colder air then moves in for Sunday into early next week.  Low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will cut off across the Ohio Valley and will make for some tough forecasting for a couple of reasons. First and foremost will be the frost threat as any overnight clouds would keep temps from reaching well down into the 30s. The second reason will be for the threat for some instability clouds and showers during the afternoon hours into the middle of next week.  Here it is in a nutshell… if you have more clouds at night where you live… temps will hold around 40. If you have clear skies… temps will head down into the middle and perhaps lower 30s. Clouds and showers during the day will mean your temps will stay in the 50s while some sun will boost your readings into the lower 60s. We will pinpoint that further as we get closer… but the NAM likes the clear skies forecast at night for a lot of folks…

Wow… that is some cold air across the state and would certainly mean frosty conditions and perhaps a light freeze. Again… that is what that particular model is saying. One thing to keep in mind… the BONE dry ground for much of Kentucky that acts to heat air temps up during the day as the opposite effect on a clear night. That can lead to colder nighttime temps than the models think.

I mentioned the slow moving cut off pool of chill remaining into the middle of next week and that is a likely scenario meaning well below normal temps will be likely during this time. Some clouds and scattered showers can’t be ruled out either. Here is the European Model showing the same thing it has shown for the past several days…

I pity the folks who only use the GFS to forecast by as it is just now catching up to the cut off solution that all the other models have been showing for a number of days.

I will have updates on the frost threat so be sure to check back. Have a great Friday and take care.