Good Thursday everyone and welcome to the last day of September. It has been another warmer and drier than normal month for much of the region. The past several days have been much cooler than normal and that trend is going to continue into the first week of October. As a matter of fact… it will get even colder.

In the short term… low pressure is working up the east coast and has plenty of tropical moisture to work with. This low is going to be a very fast mover and will deliver only a glancing blow of showers to extreme eastern Kentucky. Here is your regional radar to see how close this stuff gets…

Temps today will make a run toward 80 in the west while the east hangs out near 70 because of more clouds and the threat of  a few showers.

Cooler air will work in here for Friday as temps come back down. This looks like a winner of a weather day as temps come down into the 60s for the north and east and lower 70s out west under mainly sunny skies. Breezy weather will be noted as well.

The real deal push of chilly air moves in later Saturday and will kick in from Sunday into the first half of next week. This secondary push of colder air may have a narrow band of gusty showers with is later in the day Saturday. The NAM is picking up on this…

This is a heck of a cold air mass for so early in the season and may mean temps have a tough time getting above the high 50s and low 60s for several days in a row beginning Sunday. Nighttime lows will dip into the 30s on any night that is clear and that means those nights would feature our first frost threat. Look at this push of chill coming southward on the European Model…

We mentioned Wednesday that this cold air is likely to get pinched off across the Ohio Valley as a deep cutoff low pressure forms in the upper levels of the atmosphere. That continues to look like a real possibility as every model not called the GFS shows this happening. Let us once again reference our old friend the European…

This should lead to an increase in clouds and showers for early next week. If this upper low is as strong as the models are hinting at… the word blustery might be used for the first time in a long time. Winter weather fans… here is hoping we can see something similar to the above maps a few months from now.

There you have it… a much colder than normal start to the 10th month of the year to get folks in the fall mood.

Have a great Thursday and take care.