Good Wednesday everyone and welcome to a happy day for Cincinnati Reds fans across the land. For the first time in 15 years… my Reds are in the playoffs and happy days are here again. We will give them top billing as we give you the breakdown of how our weather will be playing out over the next week and change.

Today will be a fantastic day as sunshine returns and temps warm. Highs across the entire region will hit the 70s to give us a great middle of the work week.

By Thursday… all eyes will focus on the southeastern part of the country as a stalled out front combines with a heck of a tropical pipeline of moisture from what is now TD #16. This may become Tropical Storm Nicole at any point as it works northeastward across Florida toward the Carolinas into Thursday. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center on this system…

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

latest goes east hurricane sector water vapor image

That is one heck of a tropical moisture plume aimed northward into the eastern part of the country. The questions is… how far west will all this juice come and will it bring some rains into our neck of the woods? The short answer is probably not.. but it will get darn close. Far southeastern and eastern parts of the state may get in on the far western edge of the rains as the heaviest totals stay along the eastern slope of the Appalachian Mountains. The NAM and GFS are now on the same page…

This looks like a pretty good day for much of the region with temps back into the 70s.

The coldest air of the season will then push in for the weekend and will stick around into early next week. Many of the models are now going toward a solution of a cut off low over top of us for early next week. That is basically the cold air getting pinched off from the main flow and just hanging around here for a while. This in turn adds more instability to the mix and may even crank another low off the Carolina coast. All this adds up to the potential for more clouds and some showers as a possibility. Here is the European Model…

The Canadian Model likes this solution and is basically a carbon copy leading to more confidence in the above maps. What does it all mean for the actual weather around here?

– Daytime highs for Saturday will be in the low and mid 60s after morning temps in the 40s.

– The chilly air really takes hold Saturday night and if skies are clear… scattered frost will be possible as lows dip into the upper 30s. Again… we have to have clear skies.

– Sunday through Tuesday will see daytime highs really struggling with readings generally within a few degrees of 60. This time frame can also feature some afternoon and evening showers… especially by Monday and Tuesday. This will also be a rather breezy period.

– Overall… this will be a very cool start to the month of October!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.