Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for checking out the blog. We have a few more days of some big time heat around here before some big temp changes move in just in time for the upcoming Labor Day Weekend. If you are a fan of fall… you are going to love the forecast for the weekend. 
That is the highlight of the local weather as all eyes on the national level turn toward the east coast and the threat from Hurricane Earl later this week. Oh yeah… I have a winter nugget at the end of the blog.
Let’s begin with where the weather is now and that is HOT. High temps today through Thursday will run in the low to mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Today is a fitting day for the scorching hot month of August to come to and end on. The first few days of September won’t bring anything different… but that will change in a hurry to start the weekend.
A strong cold front will blow through here Friday with a band of showers and thunderstorms. Highs Friday will come way down in the low and mid 80s early in the day before dropping big time by evening from west to east. Once into Saturday… the cool air will REALLY settle in across much of the midwest and eastern part of the country. Take a look at the nice shot of Autumn showing up on the European Model…
All of the models are in strong agreement on this shot of cool air. Here is what the GFS shows for highs Saturday…
That looks GREAT for the first Saturday of college football across the region. Highs in the upper 70s look good in Louisville for the Kentucky Wildcats annual beatdown… wait… I promised to be a little better with that…. for the Kentucky Wildcats game with the Louisville Cardinals.
The rest of the holiday weekend will feature a very chilly start to the day Sunday as lows dip way down there… the rest of Sunday looks sunny with temps in the high 70s to near 80. Labor Day itself looks good with lower 80s. Temps will heat back up next week.. but we will worry about that later.
Hurricane Earl continues to churn toward the mid atlantic coastline and is a very powerful storm. Here is what it looks like on camera…
The storm will approach the outer banks of North Carolina later Thursday into Thursday night before working northeastward along and likely just offshore of the east coast all the way to Maine. Here is the latest track and information from the National Hurricane Center…
![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/030015W5_NL_sm.gif)
Again… a VERY small westward correction to the track would bring a devastating hurricane ashore somewhere along the east coast…more than likely in New England. Either way.. the coast from North Carolina to Maine will take a lashing from Earl.
I will have more tracking info in the days to come.
Winter fans… the Farmers Almanac is out with their winter forecast and gives you some hope for a third straight snowy and cold winter…
If you want to know exactly what they are forecasting for this area… you will have to buy a copy.
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the hurricanes.
This dull pattern is getting old. This has been the quietest summer I ever remember (at least here) weather wise
Thanks CB!
The graphic you kindly posted shows Farmer’s as saying “average” snowfall for us…. Is that a based on last year or the past twelve? Everything is relative 😉
Just that one drifting snow last year about kicked my butt on a steep and long driveway to clear. Not so sure I am the snow fan I once was after that. The lack of “big” snows in the past twelve years made me weak and wimpy for the one big snow we got last year.
Anyway, let us hope Earl decides to trend East, since a coast hugger would kick butt all the way up the coast.
Yep, the dynamics that created the stagnant heat for us also kept out a lot of the wild stuff we have gotten used to in the past.
As far as hurricanes though, I wish those on nobody. In spite of the main media trying to distort perception, our trend for hurricanes has been in a decline for a long time (decades). The last five years were supposed to be doomsday for the coasts, due to all of the hurricanes we were supposed to get. Those same people that blurtd this stuff do not seem to make an effort to correct it. Science seems secondary to them for some reason….
Exactly. Because of the freak year we had in ’05, they kept saying “above average year!” every year since…and every year since has been DULL in the tropics. There is ZERO skill in hurricane forecasting. The Farmers Almanac is correct about Ohio Valley winters more often than NOAA is correct about the tropical weather season.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_1/12/images/hwrf_pcp_060s.gif
Check out how close the hurricane model gets to NC with Earl. Wow. The eastern beaches are NOT the place to be this week.
NC is a magnet for hurricanes
You are utterly wrong on the 2005 thing. First of all, we had 2 HUGE years in a row in 2007 and 2008. Ike, who is in the top 10 for costliest, currently at third with $38 billion in damages, hit Texas in 2008. 2007 had 15 storms, but 2 huge storms that were named Dean and Felix. 2008 had 16 and Ike. If you don’t believe me, look at these.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ike
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2007.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2008.asp
2006 and 2009 were the only two years that were quiet. But other than that it has NOT been quiet. And stop bashing NOAA. They went to college, they have the job, and all they’re trying to do is help prepare the US for the worst. If they’re off, big deal. They are trying to protect the coast. I rest my case.
“Utterly Wrong” Pretty strong phrase. Of course one in 2007 and 2008 would be the costliest..things COST MORE than they did years ago. And yes, NOAA needs to be bashed from time to time. they aren’t trying to “protect the coast.” They are trying to justify their jobs!
Lay off man!
Sorry if I sound like a jerk, but I try to drive across the point that the season is no where near over, that NOAA issue’s the forecast’s as a “head’s up” as to whats possible for the season ahead and that help’s to try to get people aware of what’s possible, which inturn trys to protect the coast. I’m not saying it will protect them because it’s the people’s decision. I do like it when people get thier facts straight before they say the past four years have been “dull”. Although, I do completely agree that NOAA trys to justify thier jobs with the forecast’s too.
When I was looking at the gfs maps, I noticed that any precipitation that approaches the ohio valley seems to really weaken or in some cases totally die out before it reaches us. Why is that? Does Kentucky have unusually dry air or something?
It is because we are under a high basically the entire forecast period.
And I’m trying to drive home the point that I went to college too, and one of my met. buddies was a hurricane expert, and the fact is there is ZERO skill in hurricane forecasting. They might as well throw darts…even NHC will admit that and openly says it from time to time.
We are talking multi decade trend and not a specific year of events. Very easy to bias perception by picking and choosing a small period of years.
BTW, your response comes across as combative. Why??