Good Monday everyone… here is hoping you are coming off of a wonderful weekend. We have a lot of things to cover with this update… the heat is on right now in a big way… a significant cool shot is on the way for the holiday weekend… and the east coast may be preparing for a major hurricane to run up the coast.
Let us start with the weather locally then branch out into the tropics. Hot is the weather word of the week as temps in the low and middle 90s will be common through Thursday. Outside of a popcorn shower or thunderstorm… most areas will remain dry. The best chance for some rains will be across western Kentucky into early Tuesday.
A strong cold front will approach the region Thursday night into early Friday and will likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms with it. We are getting dry… especially the farther west you live… so we could use some rains. The front will also have quite a push of cooler air behind it and this will move in here just in time for the Labor Day Weekend. Right now… this weekend looks AMAZING in terms of the weather. Mainly sunny skies with mild temps and low humidity levels should make for one heck of a holiday. Many of the models suggest some 70s for highs again for Saturday and maybe Sunday. Here is the GFS high temps for Saturday…
How great does that map look for the Kickoff of College Football?! The big pizza dish in Louisville does not look to be cooking this go around as My Cats take on the Cards in the middle of the afternoon. Saturday. 
Too early for a Go Big Blue? 
I have to be more careful this go around as we have picked up a ton of new bloggers from the Louisville area… it’s all in good fun my feathered friends.
The nice weather looks to stick around into Labor Day itself before temps start to heat back up next week.
Let us get to the tropics and what is likely to become a major national story this week… Hurricane Earl possibly riding up the east coast of the United States. I am not just talking about the normal tropical trouble spots of the southeast… but all the way into the New England States.
Let us get you oriented with all the tropical action in the Atlantic as we have Danielle, Earl and the future Fiona…
Danielle is a fish storm and should stay that way. Let us concentrate the other two… especially Earl. Here is what the current Satellite looks like…
The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center…
![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/030015W5_NL_sm.gif)
Most of the models I look at took a little jog westward with the track of Earl along the east coast later this week. While they never really bring the eye of the storm directly over land (and that is still a possibility)… it gets WAY too close for comfort and could bring tropical storm or hurricane force winds to millions of people.
Take a look at the GFS and Canadian Models…
Wow! Notice how fast that storm moves northward once it gets past the outer banks of North Carolina. A correction west by just a few miles would be catastrophic for areas of the northeast. This is going to be a major news maker this week… regardless of what it does to our coastline. The blog will have a TON of tracking tools for you as this storm comes calling.
We haven’t talked about Fiona much, but that storm is still on the European Model’s radar as it brings it toward the southeast coast a few days after Earl.
Have a great Monday and take care.
Do you all see the moisture streaming up from the due south right into the Bluegrass this morning? Check out the IR satellite loop. Wow. The models were ALL OVER this last week!
Now… if we could just get some hurricane remnants to ride up the MS River valley and bomb KY. We NEED some water!
Earl is now a major hurricane, Category 3 with max winds sustained at 120 mph as of 11 AM. Should pass just north of Puerto Rico but it would not suprise me is San Juan sees some hurricane force gusts. I’m very anxious to see how the 12z GFS and Euro turn out and if they continue to shift the track to the west.
12Z NAM is shifting even farther west with Earl. North Carolina… pay attention!
UK wins by 24 easily saturdaY!!!!
Chris, a real simple way to get past the Cats and Cards issue is to just say. “Kentucky” 😉
Looking forward to your forecast for winter. Nice time to test the legend that a “super hot summer” usually results in a “super bad winter”. Maybe last winter was just a warm-up? 😉
FARMERS ALMANAC WINTER OUTLOOK IS OUT!!!
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/2011-FA-US-Winter-Map.jpg
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2010/08/29/2011-winter-outlook-the-wait-is-over/
We have our first BubbaG sighting…must be getting closer to winter!! 🙂
and here is another one, some local forecaster on youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-4O1Vid8vI
and yet another one..BOO I DONT LIKE THIS ONE!!!..
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/weatherblog/13877/JB-releases-2010-2011-winter-outlook
Looks like an active weather week for a LOT of the eastern seaboard, for sure!
Don’t mind the cooler temps for the weekend, either. It will make sitting at the football game much more enjoyable! And, No, Chris, it’s NOT too early for a GO BIG BLUE! (And you Cards fans, a go Big Red, is not out of placem, either.. 😉 )
My mom lives in Paducah which has really been super hot and dry this summer. Do you know how hot it’s been? It is so hot … the birds have to use potholders to pull the worms out of the gournd. It’s so dry …the trees are whistling for the dogs (more to come)
Yep- CB said the magic “W” word. Kind of has the same effect as smelling popcorn- it draws me to it 🙂
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