Good afternoon, gang. I have no changed to the severe weather threat this afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible as this system rolls across the state. The latest short range models are hinting at thunderstorms going up ahead of the squall line…
That’s from the HRRR model and shows the simulated radar around 10pm this evening. It has the squall line overtaking the storms ahead of it as it surges eastward.
I may not be able to update a lot today because of my WKYT-TV duties. We will have team weather coverage through the night to keep you safe.
Take care.
Previous Update
Good Thursday and welcome to a very busy weather day. From high winds to the threat for strong and severe thunderstorms… today is definitely a day to keep one eye on the sky. This setup looks a lot like one we would expect later in April and that’s never a good thing in February.
Here’s a breakdown on the day:
– A warm front swings through the state early this morning with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
– Warm and very windy conditions push in behind the front. Temps today will make a run at 70 degrees with a partly sunny sky.
– Winds are going to crank to 40mph or greater at times through tonight. This can cause some issues, especially with damaged and weak trees from our recent ice storm.
– A line of thunderstorms will get going this afternoon in western Kentucky and that rolls eastward this evening and overnight. Damaging winds will be very possible with this line as it sweeps in.
– We will have to keep a close eye out for any discrete thunderstorms popping ahead of this line. Those are the ones that would have the best shot at spinning up isolated tornadoes.
I have you all set to track:
Today’s Risk Area
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas 
I will have updates as needed. Enjoy the day and take care.
Never like to see this…
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF TREES KNOCKED
DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM…SO THE THE POWER WILL MOST LIKELY ALSO BE CUT OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
You all be careful out there.
Boy, this place is a ghost town if there’s no snow to talk about.
No kidding..
…and the snow chances Chris talked about earlier this week for next week must have dwindled too.
Wait till Summer and Early Autumn
I think even the snow lovers are sick of this winter, myself i’m glad to see the sun and warmer temps.
Not me. I miss the snow
I don’t mind snow for a little while, but getting out yesterday in my boat, catching fish on the lake really put me in the mood; the brutal cold this winter has laurel lake crystal clear, so beautiful!!
Thanks Chris. Still hoping that we don’t get too much severe weather. This us the one part of changing seasons I can do without. I will be watching twitter and KWC closely all day. Everyone stay alert and stay safe out there. Have a great day!
The Moderate risk has been posted! Includes Louisville, Frankfort, and Lexington. Watch out, it could get really rough later today and tonight! Stay safe everyone.
Wondering if record highs might be approached today? The records are:
Louisville 74 in 1891
Lexington 72 in 1891 and 1997
Bowling Green 75 in 1997
Frankfort 72 in 1939.
I wouldn’t doubt it because we will see some strong WAA.
Now showing almost 70 outside my place. Mesonet has it at 67 as of 11:45.
If Lexington gets to 73° or above today, it will be the warmest temperature since OCTOBER 15, that’s over 4 months ago! There’s a hole through the clouds this morning and I see BIG tall cumulonimbus clouds, haven’t seen them since last fall, they’re beautiful but ominous at the same time.
And that’d also set a new record high temperature and Chris Mercer stated!
It’s supposed to be 72 today in knox I would say this would be a record as well.
Th warmer it gets, the more unstable the atmosphere becomes, as you know. That means the potential for more severe storms. Personally, today at least, give me the cool
I’m with you Scott! We got hit by the 2012 tornado and while we weren’t hurt, our house suffered $176,000 in damage. We got our house fixed, but my psychological damage is still there:(
You have really been through it. I’m sorry to hear about all that difficulty but very glad to know you weren’t hurt. Tornadoes have been close to us a couple of times but stayed a few miles away. Once during the April 3rd, 1974 outbreak in Kentucky and once while living in Kansas. Best wishes and will be thinking about you during this night.
Thank you Scott! I couldn’t imagine living out in KS or OK! I guess the only good thing is that out there, you can see them coming.
Is this going to be anything like 2 years ago???
Might hit 80 today in some spots?
I truly doubt that
Yeah, i was off base with that one. It was in the 60s in some spots at daylight. Now it’s afternoon and still in the 60s those same spots.. really hasn’t went up much.
I’m hoping the weather don’t get to crazy. The sunshine is nice. Weather friends be careful today. I’m thankful to know that our weather dude will keep us updated with what’s coming our way.
Be safe !!!!!
Potential for another southern winter storm 7-10 days from now?
7 days being the key term.
Love the warm temps but can do without tornados and flooding. Hoping this storm diminishes before it hits the eastern Ky mountains.
I hate that it seems like there’s no severe weather “season” anymore. It seems like it just happens anytime. Dec, Feb, Nov, Summer….Sad that you can’t even feel safe from it in the winter time. The moderate risk freaks me out, especially since there was a tornado in my location in 2004.
This isn’t a new phenomenon in Kentucky. I can recall several bouts of severe weather in January and February years ago. The key ingredient in the temp. We’ve been spared severe weather so far (like were were last March) because it was cold. If you hope for no severe weather, hope for cold weather!
The SPC is saying this is a mainly straight line wind event with a few tornadoes imbedded in the line NOT long-lived long track tornadoes!
Agreed. But outside chance of supercells forming ahead of the line if that does occur there more than likely will be problems whoever’s in the path of the individual supercells.
SPC just updated their update (you can simply go up this blog page and click the map under where Chris has “Today’s Risk Area”). Not much change. Area of maximum tornado risk remains at 5%, maximum strong damaging wind area on map remains at a whopping 45%.
Next SPC update at 2000Z (2pm central).
Grrr, I mean SPC updated their Outlook.
So far the clouds have not broken up much that might keep some storms at bay but the wind fields are still high enough for the squall line with damaging winds but the tornado threat still seems pretty low at this point, we will see if the SPC changes anything at 3pm with their next up date!!
SPC just updated their outlook, no changes, damaging winds still high ,tornado threat still 5%
3 hrs ago it was 47 in Louisville now its 62. Warm front? lol
Same here was 44 early this morning now it’s 63!
What time is this supposed to hit I-75 area?
The main action will arrive along I-75 roughly around 9pm-midnight according to NWS Louisville:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/
They have a special page about tonight’s severe wx, just updated.
Clouds are thick in Frankfort, so if the sun does not show its self much doubtful we get much above 65 here?
70 easy with no sun temps have almost risen 20 degrees without sunshine. Sunshine comes out for a hour or two mid 70’s without breaking a sweat
I posted this in reply to another thread but when I checked it was almost 70. Sun just now peeking out as I type this. Just faintly so far. It is right now approaching 12 so if the sun can break out for a while we will be at least 5 degrees warmer.
Looking at the satellite breaks in the overcast are developing downstate KY. As most of us know that is the last thing we want to see today.
GHOST TOWN,,, ur drunk got 37 post and it bee 100 by the event tonite… ask Bailey how m any hits already today.. its well into 6 figures….
Rolo talking about other people being drunk? Oh the irony! 😀
this setting up to be a BAD situation folks.. there be deaths from this storm..
You cannot say that for sure.
Stop fear mongering, Rolo. You don’t need to freak people out any more than necessary.
My God… You need help brother
“Yarrr, there be deaths from this storm!”
Your pirate voice needs more work.
LD – that is the funniest comment yet!
Rolo please don’t say that I’m already scared to death…..
Rain showers showing up on radar between Louisville and frankfort, this should help stabilize the atmosphere and keep our temps lower than other areas!
Hopefully so, although this system tonight will have a lot of its own internal instability regardless of any lack of sunshine today. Although rare, some EF4/EF5 twisters have hit at around 3am to before sunrise (to be clear, we are not expecting strong, long tracking twisters with this system).
Already 72 in Nashville.
72 here in Pikeville.I sure dread the middle of the night storms,so thankful Chris is watching over us.I am also thankful I get to drive today for the first time in weeks.Everyone stay alert and safe.
Nofear here just trying to make a point to ALOT of people who don’t pay attention..
The thing is that since the March 2, 2012 everyone here is sensitive about severe weather now. Personally, I’ve never been through a legitimate tornado outbreak before and never want to, and I just dont ever feel scared during possible outbreaks.
You should have been in Lexington in 2004. That year was so stormy! May was awful. The night we had the tornado I was working at Verizon on Harrodsburg rd, and the hail was hitting the call center windows so hard, it was freaky! My house was being built and only the foundation was laid where I live now. The house directly beside me was heavily damaged and had to be demolished and rebuilt……roofs were gone and insulation was all over the place.
That’s crazy, I would never want to go through something like that. The surprising part, is that I still haven’t seen hail before!
I won’t
Well, the SPC now has a Mesoscale Discussion that says a Tornado Watch is likely for far western parts of KY and TN.
Tornado Watch indeed now out for western KY/TN.
Somewhat of a lower tier watch for tornadoes per se, but also a high risk for severe wind (50 knots +) and moderate risk for winds 65 knots and higher.
Dewpoints in Shelbyville keep dropping. Which is strange to me. We started out at 55 this morning at 7. We’re down to a 44 degree dew point now. Temp is up to 70. Peaks of sunshine but nothing steady.
I lied. Our dew point is at 55 degrees.
YES!!! We broke 70 degrees! 71 in London. Very windy (30mph+ gusts) Waiting for the storms.
Low to mid 50 dew points don’t a big severe outbreak make. Straight line winds is all. Good luck everybody.
Straight line winds are all you need sometimes.
I hope you are right! I am scared to death of tornados and severe storms !!
Seems like I read that straight line winds can do damage like a tornado just in a smaller area.
I am not looking forward to tonight.I hate bad storms with winds and especially when they occur at nighttime.This reminds me of the tornado outbreak in early 2012.Very concerned for sure.
Cape & Lifted index is on the lower side. However, 500mb winds are crazy 120kts. Surface winds will be nearly opposite direction later tonight, which can cause smaller EF0-EF1 type tornado. Any bowing can bring the 500mb wind to the surface. This can certainly have severe potential. I do agree that “long track” tornados just are not going to happen tonight.
69 degrees in frankfort, wind is the threat, very few minor spin ups is possible, straight line winds to 60 plus looks like the biggest threat at this time for most of KY!
A spinup is only “minor” if it’s not hitting you
70 in Lawrenceburg. Not sure if we will set any official record highs at reporting stations but it will be close. Still far from the warmest February day ever recorded in Lexington–80, back in 1996. Ironically 1995-1996 was a very snowy winter and also featured big snows in March.
The sun is shining in in SW lexington.
Looks like things are starting to go down. T-storms now firing up from Jackson TN to the KY state line, well ahead of the front.
A line of t-storms are forming from about Memphis to St Louis; this may be the main line that will sweep through our area tonight. There were earlier a few Tornado Warnings in western Illinois.
Bowling Green has set a record high for the date of 76. Lexington has hit 70, Louisville 71, and Frankfort 69.
Although I wouldn’t call it quits yet. Remember back in December when the storms rolled trough? We were in the mid to upper 60 in the afternoon and evening until the storms were approaching. We peaked at 72° at night (in Lexington)! So same thing could happen. Still think record high is possible at all locations.
It was 78 in Nashville, now down to 70 as the t-storms near. Wind gusts over 40 mph at times.
Severe weather is going to happen in the Ohio Valley and potentially in any month. If you take proper precautions and heed warnings, you are not likely to suffer any injury. I would say there is less to be fearful of now than in years’ past. I salute our local media and our local weather offices for timely warnings and alerts!
Just got finished with a four-mile jog and it is warm! I can’t believe I saw people outside with jackets on this afternoon–after the cold we’ve had it felt like a late spring/early summer jog.
That is mile longer than me. I would probably turn into a pumpkin at 3.1 😉
DANGER WILL ROBINSON!! DANGER
SPC considering a new Tornado Watch for central KY, central TN, and southern IN.
SPC now has a new Mesoscale Discussion for potential of a Tornado Watch central parts of both KY and TN.
This watch is now officially out, just seconds ago.
whoops……for central Kentucky and much of southern Indiana.
Check out the cell near Morgantown. A couple of different spots looking like they want to rotate.
Looks like it is weakening to me. Unless it re intensifies won’t be much more than a typical thunderstorm.
Yep, Madison gets in tornado watches, but can not get a winter storm snow warning. We get the ice ones though. Boo!
Fish sandwich not as good as i expected
That is because it was a tiny fish, so mainly bread 😉
First sounds of thunder in frankfort, sounds mean!