September Pattern Taking Shape

Good Monday everyone and welcome to a new week. It is a week that will see our overall weather pattern look and feel more like mid September than mid August. Is anyone REALLY going to complain about that? I didn’t think so. We already have high school football in full swing and college pigskin is less than two weeks away… I say bring on fall!!

The weather this week is a primer for early fall as we likely have the coolest air since mid May ahead of us later this week. The next few days will actually be cooler than normal. Just how cool is the question as a lot will depend on just how strong low pressure is across the Mid Atlantic states. This system will crank up a nice northerly wind flow around here for the next few days and may also throw a few clouds our way. An isolated shower is possible across the east, too. The Nam is really showing the cool temps potential for the next few days…

As you can clearly see… the farther east you are, the better the chance of getting in on some of the really cool air. Either way… all of the temps showing on those maps are pleasant. Honestly… this is pretty darn nice!

A front will approach the region Wednesday and this may touch off a scattered shower or two. This front will bring in an even cooler air mass that can give us a taste of chilly temps by August standards. Highs for a whole lot of the area may stay in the 70s for Thursday and maybe Friday. Low temps Friday morning are on the impressive side… even with the severely warm biased GFS.

Look at the numbers for Friday morning…

Hmmm… it is showing some 40s around here to jump start your Friday morning. That would be right up my alley! Yes.. it is showing 30s for lows across parts of the highest West Virginia mountains. That might be going a little crazy there… but it sure is nice to see.

By the way… the tropics are FINALLY showing some life. Danielle formed Sunday WELL out into the Atlantic Ocean and is likely to be a fish storm as it develops into a hurricane. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

Thats all the weather fun I can stand for one day… have a great Monday and take care.

5 Comments

TIm on August 23, 2010 at 12:23 pm

Gotta love this weather!!!…very nice outside this morning. Got the windows open a nice cool breeze blowing…ahhhh, bring on FALL!! and oh yeah its only 120 days til winter!!!…LOL..

Marie on August 23, 2010 at 1:59 pm

120 days until the winter blues hit…and until I start counting down the days until spring.

Coffeelady on August 23, 2010 at 4:30 pm

Wow! Loving the forecast, Chris! It is, indeed a nice break after the heat of the past few weeks! I am not quite ready for fall, but, I will take a few cooler days! Have a GREAT Monday, everyone! Enjoy this beautiful weather!

tornadolarkin on August 23, 2010 at 9:58 pm

here is the most recent advisory by the nhc

THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS…INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE…DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB…AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION…AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE…THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
290/15. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE…AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED…AND AGAIN…LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
GFDL…HWRF…AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Notice how they said, RAPID INTENSIFICATION

MarkLex on August 24, 2010 at 1:05 am

Days are starting to get shorter from here on out…I do wish they would just leave the time alone. I get so sick of changing back and forth. As far as the weather goes, it’s been so boring for so long I know now what it must be like to live in California. It is so extremely rare to have ALL DAY rain here in the summer. Like a steady rain where it lasts all day. It’s like it comes in waves in repeated areas where it rains a lot or it’s nothing at all

TIm on August 23, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Gotta love this weather!!!…very nice outside this morning. Got the windows open a nice cool breeze blowing…ahhhh, bring on FALL!! and oh yeah its only 120 days til winter!!!…LOL..
Marie on August 23, 2010 at 1:59 pm
120 days until the winter blues hit…and until I start counting down the days until spring.
Coffeelady on August 23, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Wow! Loving the forecast, Chris! It is, indeed a nice break after the heat of the past few weeks! I am not quite ready for fall, but, I will take a few cooler days! Have a GREAT Monday, everyone! Enjoy this beautiful weather!
tornadolarkin on August 23, 2010 at 9:58 pm
here is the most recent advisory by the nhc
THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS…INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE…DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB…AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION…AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE…THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
290/15. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE…AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED…AND AGAIN…LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
GFDL…HWRF…AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Notice how they said, RAPID INTENSIFICATION
MarkLex on August 24, 2010 at 1:05 am
Days are starting to get shorter from here on out…I do wish they would just leave the time alone. I get so sick of changing back and forth. As far as the weather goes, it’s been so boring for so long I know now what it must be like to live in California. It is so extremely rare to have ALL DAY rain here in the summer. Like a steady rain where it lasts all day. It’s like it comes in waves in repeated areas where it rains a lot or it’s nothing at all

5 Comments

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