Good Sunday, everyone. We’re beginning a multi-day severe weather outbreak across the region. The action gets started in western Kentucky later today and spreads across the rest of the state tonight and Monday. This is the first significant severe storms threat of the year.
Here’s a breakdown of what I’m expecting…
– Showers and storms rumble across western Kentucky this afternoon and some of those could be severe.
– Central and eastern parts of the state will see partly sunny skies with temps heading toward 80 degrees on a gusty southwesterly wind.
– Showers and thunderstorms will roll eastward into the rest of the state this evening into tonight.
– The severe weather potential will really increase Monday and Tuesday. Rounds of thunderstorms will roll across the state and the air looks primed for some nasty weather. Damaging winds large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible during this time.
– I want to stress the fact the storms are coming at us in waves. This won’t be a one and done situation, but one that could give us several rounds of strong and severe storms.
– In addition to the severe weather threat… we need to watch the high water threat. Rainfall totals of 1″-3″ should be common through Wednesday. With thunderstorms… some areas can get a whole lot more than that.
I have you set to track today’s threat…
Today’s Risk Area
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas 
I will have updates as needed and will send out rapid fire updates via twitter. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.
Thanks Chris. My personal confidence for severe wx here in the Far North is low, but after reading your words I’ll be on the lookout for it nonetheless.
Today is the 3rd anniversary of the deadly tornado outbreak in the Deep South (MS, AL, TN, GA, etc,). The worst outbreak I can remember and likely worst noted since the Super Outbreak in 1974.
At least it’s looking like the tornado threat for KY the next few days will not be as high as places farther west and south. But there is still some tornado risk nevertheless for all our area, especially western Tennessee. Not to mention the risk of very large hail, flooding, etc.
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I later saw the incredible destruction from April 27 2011 in Ringgold Georgia and near Cleveland TN. This particular twister (a high-end EF4, almost an EF5) missed my parents’ home near Cleveland by less than 10 miles, but because of severed phone lines/communications, it took long agonizing hours to learn my family was shaken but ok. These are sights and experiences I won’t forget anytime soon.
I live a little northeast of Sevierville, TN. That night was the worst outbreak of supercell thunderstorms I have seen since my childhood experience of April 3-4 1974 in northern Kentucky. It wasn’t just a line of storms and then it was done, it was one monster storm cell after another following each other up the Tennessee Valley from Alabama. The storms started in earnest around 4 p.m., and did not relent until well after dark–near midnight. The lightning was the most intense I have ever seen. While I enjoy the garden variety storm in the summer months, I would not want to re-live that night again by any means. That night the storms were MEAN.
The supercell that produced the twister near Cleveland Tennessee then spawned a new tornado relatively close to you in rugged terrain of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Here’s video of that aftermath:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlnGMxBGk6I&feature=player_embedded
Thanks Chris. Not really looking forward to severe storms and 1-3 inches of rain but I guess we will take it since that is what we have coming. Most of today looks pretty good so I hope everyone gets a chance to go out and enjoy it. Appreciate all you do. Will have the cell phone handy to get those twitter updates! Have a great Sunday everyone.
I can not recall such a wimpy spring for bad storms, but like it none the less. Keep em’ commin’. A nice rain shower each week to keep water tables on par would be nice.
Does not usually work out that way though. To get the good, there usually is some bad too.
Thanks, Chris for all you do. I’m glad you’re there for us weather weenies. 😉
Things are cranking up a bit.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Daviess County KY (including Owensboro) and Indiana counties just east of Evansville.
Lots of heavy rain, thus Flash Flood Watches up for western parts of KY and TN. Flash Flood Warnings now in west TN, including Shelby County/Memphis; a possible hint of things to come for KY and the rest of TN. Good thing my wife and I went on a walk (with the dog) earlier, as the heavy rain is about on Nashville’s doorstep.
The potential tornado threat to our southwest is not letting up. Storm Prediction Center just upgraded part of Arkansas to a High Risk of severe wx. This is relatively rare, the SPC only issues a high risk a few times in any year.
…and a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch is out for much of Arkansas. Please alert your friends/relatives there!
Tornado northwest of Little Rock confirmed by spotters. Estimated to be half-mile wide as it crossed I-40, headed northeast. Rarely declared Tornado Emergency issued. Hoping for no serious injuries.
At least there was one tornado of note spawned in the High Risk / PDS Tornado Watch area. I wasn’t sure if there were going to be any.
🙁 Unfortunately one tornado fatality in Mayflower Arkansas with severe destruction there, fears the toll could rise. Two deaths in Oklahoma as well.
Scary pic of very large twister at Mayflower AR (click here).
Dr. Greg Forbes has a TorCon of 5 tonight and tomorrow for Kentucky, 50% chance of a tornado within 50miles of an area!!
I am praying he is WRONG !!!
Most likely is people have to get ratings though
The “ugly” stuff (with apologies to CB 😉 ) is gradually coming our way.
Brand new Tornado Watch for western Tennessee and far eastern Missouri – right up to but not quite including far western Kentucky.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0103.html
This setup has me very much on edge.Since this is forecast to be ongoing for two or three days just hoping it doesn’t make up for all the calm days we have had.Not getting a good feeling about this at all.
Tornado Watch #103 has now been moved further east to include part of western Kentucky.
The same supercell that produced the deadly Mayflower Arkansas tornado is still going strong, tornado warnings now out for southeastern Missouri. If this cell holds out, far western KY/northeastern TN could be next. Twisters at night are extra dangerous, so please have your warning devices working properly to wake you up so you can take prompt shelter. Personally, I don’t think I could even go to bed under such conditions. I do have the option to sleep tonight as my area will be relatively calm for a while longer. But thanks to tv mets like Chris Bailey, Nashville’s Lelan Statom, and the men and women at NWS and SPC that don’t sleep to keep the rest of us safe!