Winter Takes Control Of The Pattern

Good Wednesday, my fellow weather weenies. As we are now fully into the Christmas season, it’s always nice to have a winter pattern developing and that’s just what we have taking over. It’s one loaded with cold shots and snow chances right on through the holiday season.

Let me begin by saying your friendly weatherdude is almost down for the count with some kind of bug, so I hope all this makes sense. It took me off air last night and kept me from the Christmas Parade, but it won’t stop me from updating you guys.

I’ve talked about how the models would struggle with handling all this energy digging through the base of a deepening trough. We are seeing them do just that, even in the very short term. A few days ago, the models were showing a weak system moving across the Ohio Valley on Thursday, bringing the chance for some flakes. They lost it, but have found it again…

It’s nothing major, but it could be a small streak of light snow and flurries for some areas. But, it illustrates the point I’ve been making about how we can’t live and die with each model run, even on the smallest stuff. I digress. 🙂

Colder air comes in behind our little Thursday flurry maker, as a system develops from the Gulf up the east coast. As that’s happening, our clipper is diving in behind it by Saturday. Look at how close the Canadian is to bringing some of snow to our east into southeastern Kentucky…

The European Model is similar with how it handles the system on the east coast and the clipper diving in here…

Again, that’s a light snowfall showing up across, especially, central and eastern Kentucky. We have to get these clippers to within 48 hours before the models truly figure out intensity and exact track.

In the overall sense, I’m absolutely amazed how well behaved this pattern is on the models. When you have blocking this strong early next week…

The models don’t have much room to waffle. That’s the Polar Vortex showing up into the Great Lakes next week on the GFS. The Canadian says ‘me too, eh’…

Clipper snows are a good bet next week, with a good chance we get in on some of our first snow days in our region.

If you’re looking at this pattern and wanting some kind of snowstorm… This is not the setup for that through next week. The southern jet stream is being crushed by the cold coming into the country. This matches my winter forecast for December.

Ok, that’s all I can do at the moment. Nyquil time.

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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23 Responses to Winter Takes Control Of The Pattern

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    All I want for Christmas is a Clipper.

  2. Scott king says:

    Thanks again for the update info. Hope you get to feeling better.

  3. nasdaq says:

    Clipper is back in the 06z run, also shows the cold sticking around 🙂

  4. B H says:

    That’s a nasty bug if it’s the one like I had. Lasts a long time. Well one thing about clipper snows. They are usually easy to sweep with a broom.

  5. Bernard P. Fife says:

    It may be early, but Thelma Lou is anxious….any preliminary thoughts on Christmas yet? I know precip from this point would not be realistic to pin down, but hopefully more normal temps for late December is showing up!

  6. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for taking the time for the updates. I’ve been watching your updates at 4:00 on news, and really enjoy your way of forecasting. Your technique reminds me of the way forecast were released years ago. Take care of that cold, I myself have had a cold for a week, but it is beginning to subside. On the weather side, I would just like to see some light snow falling from the sky. Doesn’t have to accumulate. Snow is just as beautiful falling as it is on the ground. Take care and I look forward to your continuing weather updates.

  7. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hope you are feeling much better soon! And so, the winter saga begins…. have a great Hump Day everyone!

  8. Jason says:

    Hope you feel better soon! Thanks for the update.

  9. Troy says:

    The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away. Rinse repeat. Love to see a nice snow before Christmas (or after for that matter) but afraid we will be left with a lot of wasted cold air in place while holding the bag for a snow that will not come just like last year.

  10. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Clippers mostly miss to the north. No southern moisture. Bah humbug. Rodger in Dodger

  11. Scully says:

    Thanks for the update. I’m excited to see how it all plays out. Sorry u r under the weather. Go see Dr. Cruz in jeffersonville for some major vitamin C. You will be better in a couple of days. That’s what I do.

  12. Cold Rain says:

    Guess if you’re in SE Ky you need that system along the coast to come more inland..Let the NW shift begin..

  13. Cold Rain says:

    UKmet was interesting..

  14. C in BG says:

    Thanks Chris! Any chance that weekend storm tracks 200 miles NW? haha!

  15. C in BG says:

    Interesting… if it would only come NW…

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