Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Snow showers and snow flurries will continue to wind down across the region this afternoon. As expected, light accumulations have ben noted in the east, especially in the narrow bands of heavier squalls. As this action ends, we focus on a couple more systems for later in the week.

Here’s regional radar to track what’s left out there today…

Winds are a huge player as temps drop into the 20s this afternoon. Both hands on the wheel! 🙂

A strong clipper zips by just to our north Wednesday night, bringing heavy snows to those areas. As it moves east, some wraparound snow showers and flurries make their way into central and eastern Kentucky…

Winds with this system will be even stronger than what we had out there today. Gusts of 40mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

There is little change with the Friday system as the models do not want to amplify it. It’s close, but the main low stays to our east with some light snow action with the upper level system moving in from the northwest…

After a mild up on Saturday, the late weekend system should bring rain and a possible wintry mix from Sunday into Monday.

This takes us into the week leading up to Christmas. The overall pattern across North America is one that is going to try to take temps to the extreme. Bitterly cold air is going to move into the country by Christmas weekend, while the far southeast sees toasty temps. Given the extreme temps, forget about using operational computer models. They may show us at zero on one run then 60 for the following run.

Let’s try some good old fashioned pattern recognition and see how things evolve. Here’s the possible setup for the long Christmas weekend into early Christmas week…

I will keep updating the trend as we roll through the week. I will have another update this evening.  Make it a good one as you roll through the rest of the day and take care.


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24 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris! We had sleet, rain, and snow and now even a patch of blue sky! We also have that wicked wind as well…cold! Stay warm and have a good afternoon everyone.

  2. Cold Rain says:

    Hey Virgil.. This southeast ridge is for you..Seriously hope this is wrong..Like Chris said stay away from computer models..Especially long range..Hope the Ensembles don’t start showing this..

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121212/300/500h_anom.conus.png

  3. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Come on Christmas! We got less today around Monticello than we had on Saturday and that wasn’t anything of merit. Winds are stout and the sun is bright, should make for a cold night.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for the update. I sure hope that your last map on your blog pans out. What it tells me it’s a snowstorm about to happen.

  5. Snowteach says:

    Still holding out hope for a snow day this week

  6. Jimbo says:

    I would bet on the models showing the southeast ridge taking over. Our flirt with Winter was weak and brief.

    • Josh Vervoren says:

      Nailed it!

    • Terry says:

      I can agree…atmospherically speaking, we are in an active pattern but not by precipitation…shoot…I would settle for rain at this point as it is just plain out boring!

      • Jimbo says:

        Looks like the this Winter will be like the last three. The cold has no staying power and when it does show up, it is only accompanied by the dreaded backside flurries. Maybe another 60 to 70 degree Christmas.

  7. Prelude says:

    There was a excellent write up in the NWS forecast discussion about the upcoming Christmas holiday week. Basically NWS is saying a generally milder than normal pattern looks to hold from the middle of next week into the beginning of the Christmas holiday weekend. However as we move into the Christmas holiday weekend, the operational and ensemble models do suggest that strong ridging may develop in Alaska which would favor a downstream trough over the western US and a corresponding ridge over the eastern US and western Atlantic. The Ohio Valley looks to be dead in the middle of the storm track and several systems may effect the region during the Christmas holiday period. The main question is how the thermal field will evolve during the period. Current ensemble means and operational runs from the Euro and the GFS are holding much of the cold air to the west, keeping the Ohio Valley more on the warmer side. NWS says they are not entirely sold on that idea as of yet. This is because the GFS and Euro’s MJO projection of going into phase space7 and 8 would argue for a more colder pattern by Christmas. NWS suspect that the dynamical models may just be holding back the trough a little too much to the west. So a correction to the east would not be all that surprising in future runs.

    • Mike says:

      That’s good. I think?

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      Thanks Prelude. We usually end up with cold rain from these systems. Rodger would be surprised if Christmas time is any different. Winter’s off to its usual disappointing start. Rodger in Dodger

    • Troy says:

      Good info Prelude, let’s just hope that a cold shift east doesn’t result in what we all dread the most….an ice storm (which wouldn’t surprise me in the least while an actually snow storm would shock me to the core).

    • BubbaG says:

      If that does not pan out, we probably are looking at mid January for the next decent chance. Shoot, even a wimpy system outlook for this week missed. CB was confident just a few days ago this week would likely see snow days. Kind of already seeing the usual trends of looking good a few days out and drifting to less or nothing.

      End of January Kentucky could likely be the fence for cold and warm battles, with spring-like storms and strong winter mix events. Hopefully ice is the minority of the mix if pans out.

  8. Cold Rain says:

    Good..Lets get some good over running moisture from the gulf while the cold air bleeds our way..Before i go out of this world would like to see a good 5 inch ice storm..




    —-



    Just Kidding..Happy Holidays..

  9. TeacherMomOf2 says:

    Technically, it’s still Autumn. We don’t really see Winter here until February. There’s still plenty of time. One can hardly say Winter is off to a wimpy start when it hasn’t even begun.

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