Colder Than Normal Pattern Rolls On

Good Saturday, everybody. It’s a calm and chilly weekend as our absolutely frigid November rolls on. The temps aren’t exactly frigid over the next several days, but they continue to be skewed colder than normal. The setup after next week looks like to turn frigid once again.

Let’s start out by taking a look at just how cold the first half of November has been. Look at those departures for areas east of the Rockies…

That’s cold!

Once past the weekend, we turn our attention toward a couple of weak systems dropping in here from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. This can drop a few rain or snow showers on us. The NAM shows a few flakes flying…

Another system makes a run at us late next week, with rain on Thursday and the potential for some flakes on Friday.Its a setup the models are struggling mightily with…

That looks to set the stage for another system to follow that up from the southwest, bringing the potential for winter weather next weekend into early Thanksgiving week.

In an earlier post I talked about the cold look from some of the analogs coming from the forecast models. The following models are centered on November 26th and show the closest hemispheric matches in the bottom right, starting with the year…

GFS Ensembles

GFS

1989 and 2000 show up on more than one occasion. Those just happen to be the two top coldest Decembers on record around here. 1963 and 1976 were also big December winters around here.The winter of 1976/77 us legendary. 2002 is another year showing up several times and that was a rough and tumble winter around here.

Those are just snapshots of analogs the computer comes up with and will change a bit with each run, but they can sometimes give us clues as to where things are going.

I will be back with updates later today. Have a good one and take care.


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12 Responses to Colder Than Normal Pattern Rolls On

  1. MarkLex says:

    Hmm. 2002
    Let’s see. I was living at Chinoe Creek Apartments. It seems like I remember that winter being COLD with a lot of ankle-biters and then the horrible ice storm from early 2003. If I’m not mistaken, that’s one of those winters that got cold and pretty much stayed cold with maybe a few days relief from the cold here and there but mostly pretty cold the entire winter.

    • Sabertooth52 says:

      We moved to Lexington in June 1977 with a new baby, our first. In my mind, the following winter was marked by significant snowfall accompanied by grey, frigid weeks which preserved the frozen tundra look and made daily commuting a nightmare. That memory hasn’t morphed into a fond one.

  2. Cold-Rain says:

    Been so long but seem like 1989-90 was a torch after the cold Dec..Maybe some of you younger folks with sharper memories remember..

  3. Andy Rose says:

    Starting off at 21 degrees this morning

  4. Cold-Rain says:

    Don’t think anyone who likes snow wants to see 1989-90 roll into town..If memory is right December was cold then a big big pattern flip and was a torch rest of winter..

    • BubbaG says:

      Might have em’ mixed. That was when it snowed from mid December until mid January, off and on. Got old after two weeks.

      • AC says:

        I remember hearing the winter of 1988-1989 was cold and dry.

        • AC says:

          But if this is just showing November/December, then that would be 1989/1990. Hmm. Can’t really remember that year sticking out that much in terms of winter.

          • Mike S says:

            Interesting fact, despite December 1989 holding the 2nd coldest December on record in Louisville, both Louisville and Lexington would go on to record a warmer than average winter for December through February.

          • Cold-Rain says:

            Wow..Found an old post from January 14 2010 from KWC..Chris said it was a Cold December then a historic switch when January 1990 rolled around..No snow rest of winter and warm I presume..

  5. Mike S says:

    That’s what everyone wants to hear.

  6. Terry says:

    Looks like we will have to suffer a small boring stretch of weather before it gets more active towards late next week. Thanksgiving week looks very exciting and we shall see:)

    We still need some rain down in the SE KY area. I haven’t reached an inch yet for my November monthly total.

    0.76 for the month-to-date precipitation total through 16th!

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