Good Sunday to one and all. The heat and humidity pushed back into the region Saturday as many themometers hit the 90 degree mark again. Now we get set for an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. These storms will usher in one heck of nice brand of air by the middle and end of the upcoming week.

Scattered storms will go up across the area this afternoon and evening. Any one storm can pulse up toward severe levels and will contain very heavy rains. Track the action here…

Outside of showers and storms today… temps can make another run toward 90.

A cold front will move in Monday and bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. There will be a lot of moisture available for these storms to feed upon and this will up the ante for heavy rains that can cause some local high water issues.

Showers and storms will linger into Monday night and perhaps into early Tuesday in the south. A much cooler brand of air will then take control of the pattern from the midwest into much of the eastern half of the country. It is looking more and more like we can get a day or two of 70s for highs around here. I have a question about next week… can we get a low to dip below 50 degrees? Time will tell.

Tropical Storm Alex hit Belize Saturday and has weakened into a depression while over land. It will move back over water in the southern Gulf of Mexico later today and strengthen into a storm and likely a Hurricane. The  question then becomes… where does it go?

Much of the modeling of late has been taking Alex into Mexico and that looks to be what the National Hurricane Center is thinking…

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Some of the more recent runs of various models have tried to take on a more northern look with the track. The GFS and Canadian models both jumped northward with hits to the United States instead of Mexico for the end of next week. The differ on the timing… but look similar overall…

While odds favor a landfall just south of the US border in Mexico… it is way to early to rule out the farther north solution. This should be interesting to follow in the coming days.

Have a great Sunday and take care.