Good Saturday everyone and we say a big welcome back to the heat and humidity. After a one day break… we are back into the thick of the muggies that will carry us into Monday before some big time changes head our way next week.
The weather today will be hot and it will be humid as temps hit the 90 degree mark in many areas. Lower 90s are a good bet for some under partly sunny skies.
Sunday looks a lot like today with low 90s for many as humidity levels come up even more. This will lead to a scattered afternoon or evening thunderstorm going up.
A cold front will move toward us by Monday and this should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could be strong and produce very heavy rains. With a ton of juice in the atmosphere… we will have to be on guard for some local high water issues once again.
Here is what the NAM looks like Monday afternoon…
That front will start a step down process that will lead to a heck of a cool air mass taking over across much of the eastern half of the country for the middle and end of next week. Take a look at the European Model for Thursday…
Hmmm… could that give us a day or two in the 70s for highs heading into 4th of July weekend? That would seem to be, at least, a possibility.
Tropical Depression #1 formed Friday int the Caribbean and may become Alex before heading toward the Yucatan Peninsula. This should then enter the southernΒ Gulf of Mexico and head toward Texas or Mexico early next week. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center…
Have a great Saturday and take care.
Dumb question
When looking at the HPC 5 day total precip, why do days 1-2 and 1-3 show more precip falling than the 5 day total? Makes no sense…….At any rate, check this video out….WOW!!!!!!!! I think I remember it being this bad in northwest Lex a couple of times…..Namely Sept 2006 training storms.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHRZqt28dB0&playnext_from=TL&videos=BcbEOCAuZ3o
the name has alex living through the ucatan and possibly becoming a hurricane.
the NAM
Not everybody will stay dry today, either..although the chances for storms are isolated (~20%). Right now looks like the best bet for any storm to pop up will be in central, south central, and southwestern KY.
I have been under the weather for a couple of weeks….HELP, I’m MELTING!!!” Do I recall that Chris’s hotter ‘n Hades summer prediction called for 14-22 or so 90*+ days? If so-how many we got left!!
I don’t know how many 90*+ days we have left for the summer, but it’s been hot!
I’ll take this any day over slick winter roads though. π
Char, I remember a few years ago when we got a 4″ snow, but none of it stuck to the roads. Those snows are nice!
Maybe we’ll get some more of those this winter. π
8 to 10. π
Alright guys,
I know you’re burning up if you’re staying outside, so it’s time to look at the mesoscale parameters again (as of 2:30 PM—“severe weather/thunderstorm probabilities for the layman terms…)
CAPE values are high across the western two thirds of the state once again, so there’s lots of “energy” available for storms, but is there anything to trigger it? Not really…
Visible satellite (which shows the clouds and such) shows stratocumulus clouds split down the middle of the state. From just south of Louisville all the way to the border in Pike County, these clouds have taken over. Some of you might refer to these as “summertime clouds, or puffy clouds…”
What makes these clouds blow up is moisture and a good amount of wind in the mid-levels of the atmosphere to make them puff up, hence the term “popcorn” storms…
The Surface Based Lifted index is fairly high in the western portion of the state….well, if you think about bread…and how it rises with heat and expands…that’s sort of how clouds work….so if you’ve got lots of these clouds and the lift is there, then these clouds can expand…and if the moisture is there, then a thunderstorm is born!
Humidity levels are on the rise, so we know there’s ample moisture at the surface….(a good part of the state now sits in at least 50% relative humidity…and some parts even higher than that….)
Popcorn storms will be the rule of the day. Good luck for those of you wishing for a storm….there will be a few around the area this afternoon and evening, I think.
π
Stay cool, everyone.
CAPE Values in parts of Southern Illinois are at 5,500. Wow…I’ve only seen levels this high in Mexico…but I also don’t look at the weather maps every single day. π
If we don’t get popcorn storms today, I’m going to have to rethink the formula here for storms..
But the MILE acronym has always worked for me….Moisture, Instability, Lift, and Exhaust…..
Look at me, calling for iso. storms and not one in the state. Now I’m the one who looks bad…..
You win some you lose some, I guess.
Enjoy the heat everybody….time to shy away for a while and work on this formula…
Aaron- I actually was under one of those “popcorn showers”(not a “Storm”..lol!)today. Had a Yard Sale today here in Bardstown-it suddenly got cloudy, then we had some pretty GOOD raindrops for about 8 min’s?!- We still managed to sell about $260 worth of JUNK, soooo…it was a GOOOD Day!?;)
Truly, our weather is always changing. One thing that I don’t like is to have a too hot feeling because of the intense heat. And also, I don’t want to experience a too cold weather. Having a normal condition is alright for me.
What would you have spent a million dollars?