Good Saturday everyone. The heat and humidity both increased across the area Friday and that is a sign of things to come as we go into a toasty pattern for the next few weeks. There is a question that needs to be answered… and that is… will some storms temper the heat?
That is certainly a possibility on certain days over the next week. Notice I say TEMPER the heat and not kill it. Storms or not… hot and humid weather will be with us. Today may turn out to be one of those days for, at least, a few areas. Clusters of intense storms have been working through the northern Ohio Valley since Friday afternoon. These were firing just ahead of a weak front that will settle southward toward the area today. While the front will never really make it through here… it may serve as the focusing mechanism for a few storms today. I say the word “few” as I watch the aforementioned intense storms diving southward toward us as of this writing… but I am banking on them breaking up before getting here. If they don’t… then strike the word few and replace it with likely. 
Track whatever is out there right here…
Outside of showers and storms… temps will make a run toward the low 90s. and you can track the heat with real time temps from the good folks at Kentucky Mesonet…
Another chance for some storms will be with us Sunday and Monday as temps hit the low 90s. Tuesday may end up being the hottest day of the period with low and middle 90s. Throw in the humidity levels with the heat and you can get a “feel like” temp near 100 degrees at times. A HEAT ADVISORY is out for the western half of Kentucky this weekend for values that may reach 105-110 at times.
There is likely to be a weak front that drops into the area by Wednesday with a slightly better shot of showers and storms. Here is how that looks on the GFS…
Wednesday Evening
That may knock our temps back a few degrees before the heat makes another surge at us by the end of the week into the weekend.
I will have update things as needed so check back. Stay cool and have a great weekend.
Take care.
Chris,
Just scanned over your post, and those are my thoughts as well. This line looks to be dying FAST. What would help them to at least stay at their current strength? There’s no daytime heating left…and I’ve not looked at the upper air charts and mesoscale parameters.
Still CAPE values in the 2000-3000j/kg range in Southern Indiana. Seems like that and the moderate lift in WKY will perpetuate these storms for a couple more hours, progressively weakening though with a decreasing threat of wind damage. My guess, SPC says:
3:33 EST
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SOUTH
OF WW 347. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LINE.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS SRN IND AND WRN KY WHERE WW
ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WATCH ACROSS SCNTRL MO
AND SRN IL MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED.
A CONVECTIVE LINE REMAINS WELL INTACT ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM ABOUT 1000 J/KG ACROSS SCNTRL MO TO AS GREAT AS 3000 J/KG IN
SRN IND AND WRN KY. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY ON THE EAST END OF THE
LINE MAY KEEP THE LINE SOMEWHAT INTENSE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
ALTHOUGH WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR DROPS OFF SOUTH OF WW
347…SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WHICH ALONG WITH
25 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 06/19/2010
Ryan,
I noticed the MSD on SPC’s webpage earlier…looks like the CAPE gradient is very steep, built back in Western KY, but there’s almost no productivity in Central/Eastern KY at the surface for these storms to hold together. It may take more daytime heating for anything in this part of the state to become strong/severe. There’s also been no reports (not a large number in a concentrated area, anyway) of severe weather in central Indiana where this line has been this evening.
Today could be an interesting day for Louisville, though, I think, if the front sags a bit farther south.
Pre-line thunderstorms popping up around Louisville merging with the remaining line. These storms are frequent flash flood producers. Stay safe!
(Pulling an all-nighter here…leaving at 10:00 AM today)
Moderated!
Shield of rain still looks OK as of 5AM. Some folks are about to get wet.
looks like we are gonna get surprised this morning
Yep..and I have to leave at 10:00. Staying up all night –or the rest of this morning…. however you wanna look at it.
Will they hold together….that’s the $64,000 question right now.
Moderated again—the storms are doing the Kentucky River energy transfer again..
Err..meant the Ohio River… *doh*
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Clark and Jennings County, IN as well as Oldham, KY for winds in excess of 60mph associated with that storm.
Pouring rain and plenty of lightning here in western Franklin Co. I was surprised, Andy. lol
This squall line looks impressive on radar, but my max gust with it was about 29 MPH here in Lawrenceburg. I’m just thanking God for the unexpected rainfall! We’ll take any we can get this time of year!
Possible multi-cell convergence over Marion County.
Woke up by the storm sirens here in Georgetown this morning. Other than some thunder, nothing here yet.
David,
The rain/storms will be there in about 20 mins, give or take 5.
sky looks green, and the lightening is fierce here in Sadieville.
Why on Earth would the storm sirens be going off???
Very good question.
.22″ so far in L-burg.
Small roll cloud coming up over the horizon….WXMan you said a top gust of 29 at your place? Even so, that might still be hard to beat. 😉
There’s a lot of turbulence in the skies where the storms are, for sure—watched them pass overhead, and in one place in particular, clouds were literally swirling around in different directions, as if someone was sticking their fingers in wet paint and swirling it around in circles……neat stuff.
:O)
looks like storms are intensifying moving south through casey,and nearing pulaski co.. so folks south and east of there could get some suprising MUCH NEEDED RAINS! later this morning. I’ll take what I can get in my backyard..
looks like maybe some hail producing storms as it blew through Lebanon,and campbellsville areas…or at least on radar…
Glad that the rain is about gone from here. But I guess the masses must be placated every now and then.
Getting hammered right now with winds and rain thunder in Pikeville.I love to sit and watch a storm outside esp if there is no damage and no internet and tv disruption lol.That.s a great memory I have of my dad when i was a little girl i would sit in my dads lap on our big front porch.I loved it.Mom didnt she wanted me in but dad would say I will take care of her and he did happy Fathers day dad RIP and to all the blog dads and Chris.