Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day to all our dads. The pleasant temps of the past several days are now a thing of the past. It’s time for some typical summertime air to invade the bluegrass state. This will be complete with hot temps, high humidity and the increasing threat for showers and storms. Oh, I also have a little winter talk to cool you down. 🙂

Highs today hit the low and mid 80s with an increase in humidity levels to add to the sticky factor. There is the small chance for a shower or storm to go up, but most areas stay dry.

Monday will see temps nearing 90 degrees and that’s the theme of the week. How high the thermometer gets where you live depends on clouds and scattered storms going up. That is likely to happen each and every afternoon and evening. No, that doesn’t mean it’s going to rain on all of you, but the chance is there.

GFSThe end of the week will find a slow moving upper low developing in the high plains. That will try to work toward the southeast into next weekend…

GFS 2Some of the models try to keep that around into much of the following week. That would dramatically increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms from late this week into the following week. That’s what the GFS has been hinting out for days and it continues to do so. Check out the 2 week rain forecast from the model…

GFS 3Many of you have probably been hearing about a developing El Nino. Some of have even tried to hype a “Super” Nino like 1982 or 1997. That is HIGHLY unlikely. We are likely to see a moderato to strong El Nino developing across the equatorial Pacific later this year. I’m already seeing people saying an El Nino means a warm winter for the US. That is 100% junk and there really isn’t any other way to say it.

Not all El Nino’s are created equally, but everyone looks at 1997 and 1982 to base every Nino forecast on. The placement of the warmest anomalies is a big player. When the warmer waters are along the coast of Ecuador and Peru, that tends to mean a warmer winter in our region. When those warm anomalies are centered farther west in the Pacific… it’s usually a cold signal here.

Take a look at where the warmest anomalies are forecast to be as we go through the upcoming winter…

CFS 2That’s right… the warmest water is forecast to be right in those areas that often mean a colder winter in the eastern part of the country. That map shows another big signal for cold in the east… a huge pool of warm water south of Alaska. That was the driving factor for the cold weather this past winter and is something I pointed out many times leading up to the winter. That warm pool helps promote ridging into Alaska and western Canada and that forces the cold into the states.

Keep in mind, the above map is only a computer model forecast and may change going forward. Still… it gives us a good idea of the overall setup of the Pacific Ocean temps.

Have a great Sunday and take care.