Good Saturday everyone. Our active weekend of weather got started off on a booming note Friday and may really get cranking today into Sunday. The upper level low we have been tracking for the past several days will be crossing the northern parts of the state today bringing the threat for flooding rains with it.
This is the same system that caused devestating flash floods in Arkansas early Friday. As of this writing… 16 people were reported to have died after flooding hit the camp site they were staying at. Some 40 others are still missing. This upper low has a ton of moisture to work with and the concern here is some areas get repeat storm action that leads to flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is out for the northern half of the state as this area will be closer to the track of the low itself.
Thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning across much of the area… especially in the north with more scattered action across the south. Regardless… ANY storm that goes up today or Sunday will have enough juice to cause local high water problems.
Track all of today’s action here…
In addition to the potential for flash flooding… some of the storms today can go severe with damaging winds and hail being the primary players.
The Storm Prediction Center has most of the area under a slight risk for severe storms…
Here is a look at the current watches…
The next map shows where the SPC is monitoring for possible watches…
As mentioned…. more storms will be likely Sunday and into early next week and these will also bring the potential for torrential rains.
I will update things as much as I can today to be sure to check back. I will also use Twitter to send out rapid updates… you can sign up to follow me @Kentuckyweather .
Have a great Saturday and take care.
I am so glad I found your page! Keep up the good work!
er u at ANDY ROSE!!!
right here rolo where you at ?
woo hoo out of slight risk for today at least atm anyway but as Chris has alluded to the SPC hasn’t had the best of yrs
I am so exhausted from a hard work week that I really do want it to rain today. I’d love to just lie in bed and listen to the rain. 🙂
More rain we do not need, ugh.
Severe Weather Parameters as of 1:30 Eastern Time…
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) Readings Across Eastern and Central KY…..
Most locations in East KY are seeing lower surface-based CAPE levels this morning, with a steepening gradient from east to west. A good 2/3rds of the state is firmly entrenched in a 2,500 j/kg level. Some CIN (Convective Inhibition) still exists at the surface in the eastern mountains of KY as rainfall there is helping to stabilize the atmosphere.
SBLI (Surface Based Lifted Index) numbers are moderate to high in the same 2/3rds of the state, again with east KY seeing the lowest numbers at around -2. The highest readings at this point seem to be -8 in a few places in western KY.
PWAT (precipitable water) values are fairly high, and highest to the north northeast of the state, perhaps due to the largest pool of moisture being there from an impulse in the upper levels of the atmosphere…needless to say, still plenty of room for rainfall…..
Supercell composite index is rising in the LOU metro area…
Effective Bulk Shear remains quite weak…
Humidity values range anywhere from 80-90 % across the entire state…
With these fields in mind….feel there is a slight chance of an isolated severe storm threat today, regardless of SPC’s outlook–but biggest player today currently seems to be potential for flash flooding in strongest storms.
Only part that made sence is the last sentence but thanks anyway 🙂
That’s why I put it there. 😛
Here’s a link if you want to see what the charts are. Forecasting tools..
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17
It is very muggy outside today…right after the rains go away and the sun comes back out…phew! Just feels like a swamp out there. 90 % humidity in parts of the Bluegrass. Severe weather starting up to our northwest…will be interesting to see how things evolve this afternoon and into the evening up there. Indiana/Illinois looks like they’re gonna be rockin’ and rollin’ later on..
Heat index is up there thats for sure McLean is at 102 atm
I actually know what you’re talking about. LI and cape right now show a pretty unstable atmosphere now.
squall line heading torward northern ky.
As the old saying goes, “The air is so thick that you could cut it with a knife!” How true that is! The showers that pass through begin like someone turns on the shower full blast. They end just as fast. Once this afternoon it was pouring the rain and the sun was shining.It has been a very strange afternoon. Thanks, Chris, for all your info. It’s a major help!!!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #307 now out for Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties until 1:00AM.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0307.html
This is as sticky as its been in years in Eastern Ky. It isn’t very often the near 80 dew points hit Eastern Ky.. absolutely oppressive/dangerous weather. I hate Summer!
I feel for road crews/ construction workers, etc. that work outside 5/6 days a week in this.
i would hope so lol