Good Friday to one and all. The blog is likely to be a rather busy place this weekend as thunderstorms will become quite common across the state. These storms will bring a double threat of trouble to the region as both severe weather and torrential rains will be possible.
We have set it up in recent days as to why this weekend could turn into a stormy one. I won’t bore you with more of the same. 
The upper level low moving our way will slip across the area later tonight into Saturday and will be the catalyst for strong storms and heavy rains. It has a ton of tropical moisture to work with so areas right along the path of the low will face an increasing threat for flooding rains.
The action will get started today for some areas… especially the farther west and south you live. Scattered storms will go up and any one storm can briefly go severe and put down heavy rains. Track the action here…
The upper low comes crusing across the area starting very late tonight though Saturday. The track of this system looks to be from the Ozarks toward Cincy then almost due east into West Virginia. A cluster of strong storms and torrential rains should be noted along this path into Saturday Night. More thunderstorms would then flare up on Sunday as our tropical atmosphere will be itching to produce more heavy rains.
Here is what the GFS is showing in terms of rainfall from Saturday morning through Monday Evening…
With the tropical air in place… the flash flood threat from thunderstorms will be increased substantially this weekend so please keep an eye out.
The severe threat it there as well… especially for Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area in a risk for severe storms…
I must say… the SPC is having a BAD year for our part of the world so far this severe season.
Speaking of severe weather… A weak tornado apparently touched down in Adair County Wednesday Evening. It was classified as an EF-0 so it was rather weak with peak winds around 80mph. Still… that took down several trees and a barn. Here is a map from the NWS in Louisville detailing the path…
I will have updates as needed today and will be all over the weekend threat so make sure you check back in. Have a great Friday and take care.
Wow, google maps really lends itself well to tracking tornado debris like that. Do they do that for all tracks these days?
In case you haven’t noticed, Google is trying to take over the world. Similar to Walmart. Soon, the entire world will be owned by these two companies. They are everywhere!
Well each WFO does things differently in terms of reporting tornadoes that occurs in their area of responsibility. Very frustrating, imo.
I love Google Earth, absolutely amazing for stuff like damage paths, or making snowfall forecast maps!
All central region offices use a GIS storm damage program to do tornado surveys. All we need to do is take a GPS and mark the damage and then ArcGIS plots it up and makes the files for Google. The NWS has partnered with Google now for several years.
Here come some storms up from the southwest parts of KY…they look very intense at this time….
Well, now we know it is officially summer. On the KYT noon news, Todd Borek made his first “it feels like August in New Orleans” reference. First of many to come, I’m sure. No, no, it does NOT feel like August in New Orleans outside.
It doesn’t feel like August in NO but it does feel like June. It’s so humid outside right now. Big difference in just the last two hours in terms of “feels like”.
Having a pretty good storm in Lexington at the moment. Pouring rain and thunder.
Why do storms break up as they approach Jefferson County? There really is some sort of effect- maybe the river has a role? Do any of you guys know- I know there are some very knowledgeable weather people on this site.
Break up when they reach Jefferson co??
Really? Louisville has many thunderstorms. Are you forgetting last August six inches in an hour?
Oh yes, I recall many spectacular storms reaching the county MarkLex. Nowhere in my post was I saying that ALL storms broke up. I have just been watching the radars way more closely for the past year and have noticed, anecdotally, what looked like a phenomena which others have commented on. When you say ‘many storms’, I wonder what the ratio of ‘storms we have to storms which approached the county’ is- or if that could be measured? Would it be comparable to other locales? Do storms which track from the south survive more than storms which come across the river. I was looking for a bit more of a detailed response. Thanks for your input though.
It is interesting. Like Lexington, the northwest area of the county (where I live) seems to get the worst of the storms. I say this because having lived in several parts of the county, I noticed this. But today (for example) south Fayette got a decent storm and we got nothing.
I’ve tried to figure out the storm direction and intensity. Where Fayette is concerned, I think the storms that come from the northwest seem to survive and almost intensify more so than when coming from the southwest. That storm that hit Louisville last Aug came from the northwest and sort of back built back over the city.
Interesting discussion, guys. I wish I had more info to chip in! I have a question, though. Do either of you two notice how when storms pop up around Bowling Green there tends to be three or four very small circular cells that pop up and then intensify? I know it happens in a lot of places that way, but it seems like this part of KY almost always gets them when storms blow up.
It did to me.
I have noticed exactly that, but not just over Bowling Green. I was at Western U speaking to a senior in their meteorology/earth sciences track and he said that surface features, such as elevation, ‘bowl areas’ , river areas do play roles in weather, but that not much study has been done on it as it would require radar data from many years and was ‘ maybe boring’ to people who come here to chase tornadoes! Oh to be young again!