Good Thursday my fellow weather weenies! We are coming off a fairly wet Wednesday across the region as showers and thunderstorms were quite common ahead of a cold front. This front is not going to get too far away from us and will eventually combine with a potent upper level low to create rounds of showers and storms into the coming weekend.

More on the weekend setup in a moment.

The cold front is putting the brakes on today across the Volunteer state of Tennessee and this will mean a wide variety of weather across the state. Areas across the north and east will likely see a fair amount of sun and this will boost temps well into the 80s. Closer to the front… parts of western and southern Kentucky will see more in the way of clouds and even some scattered showers and thunderstorms. These can put down locally heavy rains and you can track them here…

This front will head back to the north as a warm front on Friday. A good influx of moisture will be with us and this will lead to more scattered showers and thunderstorms going back up.

GFS Friday Evening

This brings us to a very interesting feature in the upper levels of the atmosphere and that is low pressure now over Texas. This upper low has caused flooding problems in the lone star state over the past few days. It is carrying a ton of tropical moisture with it and the system looks like it wants to hitch a ride around the periphery of high pressure developing  across the southeastern states.

I have put together a 500mb map from the GFS to show you what I am talking about. The upper low is noted by the X on the maps…

Heavy rains and intense thunderstorms usally develop right along and close to the path of this upper level low and these systems are famous for some major flare ups that can lead to some big problems and that’s something we will have to watch for. That and the exact path of the upper low itself. Here is the GFS for Saturday Afternoon…

You can certainly see the model pointing toward one of those storm flare ups on this run.

The humidity levels are going to soar this weekend as it will feel like the tropics around here for a few days. Another cold front wll make a run at us by early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will again become common…

Sunday Evening

Moral of the story… it is going to be VERY warm and VERY humid with the threat for thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week.

Have a great Thursday and  take care.