Good Monday everyone and welcome to a new week. This week is getting started off in one heck of a nice way as today might end up being the nicest day we have for a long time. Showers and storms will return over the next few days and those may cause some problems before the heat and humidity return later in the week.

Today will see partly sunny skies and temps that should stay in the 70s across much of the region. Those 70s will combine with lower humidity levels to make for a September feel to the air. Football anyone?

The heat will be returning to the lower plains states on Tuesday. This air will surge to the northeast and meet up with a system working into the Ohio Valley from the west. Moisture will be surging northward toward this low pressure. Clusters of severe storms will then form Tuesday across the miwest and dive to the southeast toward our part of the world by later in the afternoon and evening. A “zone” of rounds of thunderstorms will set up from northwest to southeast across the Ohio Valley from Tuesday into Wednesday. Areas within this zone will likely experience severe storms and possible flooding rains.

Here is the GFS for this event…

Tuesday Evening

Tuesday Night

Wednesday Evening

As you can see… the “zone” on the GFS runs from central Illinios into northern and eastern Kentucky, southern Ohio and into West Virginia. That is clearly shown when we look at the GFS forecast rainfall for Tuesday into Wednesday…

It will be interesting to see exactly where this corridor of severe storms and flooding rains sets up. The GFS has been very consistent with it’s depiction in recent days.

I mentioned heat and humidity coming back by the end of the week and that is certainly in the cards. By “hot”… I am talking about temps pushing 90 degrees. Just like with the recent bout of “hot” weather last week… this will be remembered more for the humidity levels than the temps. Scattered thunderstorms should also fire back up in the afternoon and evening hours. I read a forecast discussion this weekend that used the term “hot and dry”. I don’t think this is the summer to use those two words together in the same sentence.

Have a great Monday and enjoy the awesome weather. Take care.