Good Monday everyone and welcome to Kentucky Derby week! We are closing in on the first Saturday in May and the weather pattern has transformed from a tranquil one in recent weeks to a rather busy one of late. The active trend looks to continue this week and should really ramp up this weekend as another severe weather threat should be with us.

This past weekend did produce Kentucky’s first tornado of the year. An EF-1 twister, packing winds of 100mph, touched down in Edmonson county Saturday evening.

The mild and stormy weather of the weekend has been replaced by much cooler temps and on and off shower out there today. The regional radar will show these showers quite nicely…

Winds will continue to be breezy today adding an extra chill to those daytime highs that will struggle into the low and middle 50s across the area.

The rest of the forecast goes a little something like this…

– Tuesday will see more in the way of cool temps with highs again only in the 50s. Another disturbance will dive southeastward through the region during the day and will touch off showers and some thunderstorms. A few of these may produce some small hail.

– Wednesday morning will feature the threat for some patchy frost as temps dip into the mid and upper 30s. Sunny skies should boost temps into the 60s again.

– Thursday looks like the pick weather day of the week as temps make a run toward 80 under mainly sunny skies.

– That brings us to Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday  and the official start of Derby weekend. This looks to be a very warm, humid and stormy pattern taking shape for the weekend. A lot of moisture should be streaming in from the southwest and with the flow coming off the Gulf of Mexico… some heavy rains will be possible. This setup may also bring back the threat for severe weather.

Here is how the GFS is looking

Friday Afternoon

Friday Evening

Saturday Afternoon

Sunday Evening

You get the idea about what we may be talking about this weekend… rounds of showers and thunderstorms with more heavy rains and possible severe weather.

Speaking of severe weather… we all know about the killer tornadoes that ripped through parts of the south over the weekend.  Here is some amazing storm chaser video showing just how powerful and huge this twister was…

Have a great Monday and take care.