Good Saturday everyone. Today is going to be a busy weather day across the state and for much of the country as a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is likely. The area most at risk stretches from the deep south northward into the Ohio Valley. This event could turn out to be a memorable one for some areas before all is said and done.
We have set the stage well over the past several days on how this whole setup evolves. A spiralling low pressure across the plains has been responsible for two days of severe weather so far. This low will give way to another low pressure that will develop across Arkansas and quickly ride northeast toward northern Indiana by Sunday morning. This low will deepen rapidly as it makes the trip just to our west. In doing so… the dynamics ahead of this will come together to produce several rounds of strong and severe thunderstorms. These will roll from southwest to northeast today into tonight with an increased potential for widespread damaging winds and possible strong tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in a slight to moderate risk of severe weather today into this evening. They have also placed parts of the south in a rare High Risk. You can see these risk areas and where the current watches are with this map…
Check out how high the percentage numbers of a tornado are from the SPC…
Now look at the chance for damaging winds…
Both of the above numbers on the maps are VERY high around here and are exceptionally high for areas to our south. The best time for severe weather for our region will be this afternoon into this evening. Again… keep an eye on the southwestern sky as that is the direction the storms will be coming from.
Here are a few simulated radar images for today from the WRF model…
As you can see… NUMEROUS storms fire up and roll through here. Each complex will have the potential to cause some serious issues. We will also have to watch out for the flash flood potential since these storms can put down a whole lot of water in a short amount of time!
Here is your regional radar to track today’s action…
The blog will have plenty of updates throughout the day and we will take it live at some point if need be. Make sure you check back with us as your eyes and ears will be needed today so we can get a better handle on what is going on in different parts of the area.
Have a great Saturday and check back for updates… take care.
Thanks, Chris. Looks like you are going to be one busy weather dude today, especially this aafternoon and evening! Hope things don’t get too bad. Don’t mind some good storms, but really dread the stuff like you are talking about.
Everyone stay safe today, Chris, I will be checking in frequently. Hope it will take my comments today.
Thanks Chris! I havent said much lately, but am so glad I’ve been reading because I know about these things ahead of time! Everyone stay safe
Still looks like the greatest chance of a severe weather event will be well south of the Louisville area. Hedging my bets and going south.
Wxman, what’s your thoughts for our area today?
I wonder if Reed Timmons will be in the area today with the Dominater…. ol
Thanks for the update Chris. I stepped outside, and things are calm here for now. Cloudy, warm, and calm. Sounds as if that will change today and tonight. Everyone please stay safe.
Chris, thank you so much for keeping us updated and letting us know what to watch for.
his thoughts are he hopes tornadoes hit everywhere so he can get in his pinto and chase it around and see if he is as smart as a tornado….brilliant idea don’t ya think
Do we really need to start with him today? He really does have some good input. Lets lay off today as the weather is not looking good at all….I doubt he’s the one driving the Pinto anyway. I appreciate whatever he has to say.
Thats true the weather is probably going to get bad, thats another reason we don’t need people wishing for destruction, sometimes there is a fine line between sanity and stupidity. I do like reading people’s opinions that actually are trying to protect lives and let people know of the danger but i don’t have much respect for those that forecast it and hope it gets bad….I hope it doesn’t get bad period, hope and pray it doesn’t get bad here, but everyone be aware it may get bad and get out of the way if it does. There is no comparison between tornadoes and snowstorms either, I’ve never seen a snowstorm wipe out an entire neighborhood in 2 minutes, but tornadoes do….anyways stay safe today people
Just because someone “wishes” for a different outcome than you, does not mean that they are stupid or wrong.
getting ready for a strong cluster of storms here in NW TN (Weakley County) I’ll let ya’ll know how bad it gets here.
Honestly…I think the severe threat in central KY is greater today than what we thought yesterday. The sun is breaking out as I speak here…with more sunshine showing upstream on satellite. SPC has taken the Moderate zone farther north. The atmosphere is destabilizing rapidly. I think we all need to keep a close eye on things today. Someone somewhere is going to see destruction today in KY.
Well, if he was, it would be “Reed Timmer” with the “Dominator”.
You don’t see the High Risk area issued often from SPC. The deep south is going to get hammered today and Reed won’t even chase in that area. It’s too dangerous around here…because we have geography much different than what he’s got in the midwest. But yeah…if he was here he’d get to see some wild stuff today.
Give it a rest bob. Had enough of this yesterday. I’ve been following this blog for several years and I appreciate WXman’s input. Most of us bloggers don’t take kindly to bashing going on here. So stuff a sock in it if you feel compelled to attack someone on this blog again.
BOB- YOU ARE THE MOTHERLOAD OF ALL D-BAGS. WXMAN IS A GREAT ASSET TO THIS BLOG. IF YOU DON’T LIKE HIS COMMENTS AND ENTHUSIASM FOR WEATHER, DON’T READ THE COMMENTS.
Clouds are breaking all the way over here in Pikeville!
The air is much more moist than I originally thought it was going to be and I originally did not think we would see sunshine til around 1 PM here.
Does anyone else see the similarities of this setup and the memorial day weekend setup of 2004? Some dynamics and squall line positions are different, but this is strikingly similar to that memorable system.
very true..depending on what it is, it isn’t about who is wishing its about what
Me and my Dad are going out to the UK Blue-white game at Commonwealth Stadium, I am no severe weather expert here lol… Can anyone please tell me when the storms should roll in around the Lexington area, or is it to early to tell?
Folks calm down I am not against wxman, I agree wxman probably knows more about severe weather than most people on here, and i enjoy reading his thoughts and comments concerning the severe weather threat….keep that up wxman but if ANYONE gets hit by severe weather today and your life is threatened or your home is destroyed then maybe you would understand it’s not a smart idea to wish for severe weather….seriously, you can call me names, cuss me out, or whatever you want I don’t really care about that foolishness….I have followed this blog since it began but i wouldn’t follow it if Chris posted things like I hope it gets bad today and we get some major tornadoes to come through, and not many people would follow it if he made a habit of comments like that…so go ahead and call me all the names you want, and when the day is over i hope your still alive and have all your possessions because the severe weather misses you.
SUNNY HERE IN SW LEX. HAS BEEN FOR AN HOUR OR SO…FEELS GOOD, BUT I KNOW THIS IS THE PROVERBIAL “GAS ON THE FIRE” SUN. SURE WILL BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
Got a great night of sleep last night. Woke up to see the very rare high risk over the south and the moderate risk extended back to the I-75 corridor. Folks stay weather aware today this one has the potential to be one long and rough weather day.
Let’s not get moralistic over weather. It is what it is. People get an adrenalin rush when weather gets wild. That’s OK. People make a hobby out of it. That’s OK too.
That being said, today’s situation appears to be potentially grave. When SPC whips out the “high risk” designation, look out.
Wxman, that is waht I am afraid of, too. I have followed storms like this, and was working at a radio atation when the April 3 tornado breakout happened. This is why I say I hope it doesn’t get too bad today, but I am betting that somewhere in the state, it is going to happen. Let us just pray that it is in an open area, with no loss of life, and very little property damage.
Everyone PLEASE stay safe today, and keep an eye on the blog, or weather SOMEWHERE. Weather radis are still available at Kroger, and Walmart. They can be, and have been, lifesavers.
Thanks for your reply Wxman! You’re input is always appreciated and one that I take very seriously, especially since we live in the same area. Thanks again!
I suspect the first wave of storms will move into the Bowling Green area within the next 2 hours. I think they’ll enter Somerset to London between 2 and 3 PM. Dewpoints are around 60 so that should be enough moisture to help sustain whatever fires to our southeast. The fact there is partly sunny skies over KY right now will not help make these storms any weaker.
Shane, as far as south central & SE Kentucky, are you more impressed with the potential for supercell development or more so with the line of storms that should pass thru with the cold front later this evening? Also, are you still planning on going live with the blog today?
Sun is beaming here in Pikeville, has been for around an hour.
I’d say we will really see these storms firing within the next few hours and continue to build as the cross Kentucky
Does anyone have a ? time of arrival say in the Frankfort area?
Lots of sunshine here in London with light winds, only adding fuel for that line working in from middle Tennessee.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AFTER 19Z. Can anyone tell me what time 19z is please
3 PM eastern, 2 PM central.
2PM. 19Z= 1900 HOURS ZULU. EASTERN TIME IS ZULU MUNIS 5 HRS, AND OF COURSE CENTRAL IS MINUS 6HRS. EX: 19Z=1900 ARMY TIME. 1900-500=1400 WHICH EQUALS 2PM EDT. HOPE THAT HELPS.
SHANE, I MIGHT BE INCORRECT WITH DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME, BUT ISN’T 19Z 2PM EDT?
High risk for severe weather from SPC moved into southern and western KY. Nate we’re 4 hours behind zulu on in the eastern time zone right now because of daylight savings.
Russ, I’m more concerned for eastern KY with the line that rolls through tonight, however I’m becoming increasingly concerned about potential for a few supercells especially back in to south central and western KY. I will try to take my blog live like I did back in March however the level 3 Radar data is coming in very slowly today… a lot of folks are using it.
Reports of 30 houses destroyed in Eagle Bend, MS according to the Weather Channel.
Well, it looks like the first batch is about to start heading into Pulaski County from the southwest. And it does not look pretty! as it gets here, I will try to update what we get. (Hopefully, we will keep our power.) Be safe everyone.
This questions is for Shane. My son is at WKU today…from what I have read here, Bowling Green is a hot spot for severe weather today. Am I correct?
Is frankfort a hot spot today. As I am in a hotel and don’t like storms????
THANKS, SHANE…AFTER I WROTE THAT, I SAW YOUR POST AND FOROGT ABOUT DST.
Bowling Green has a good chance for severe weather today. However WKU and Bowling Green have dealt with severe weather before. There are marked storm shelters on campus so try not to worry too much.
Thank you Shane!
Watching streaming video out of Yazoo City, MS. Massive damage being shown.
PJ here is the link for the weather service in Bowling Green they have been updated into the HIGH RISK AREA. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk
I am thinking we are all in for something we may not be prepaired for today. If you do not have a Noaa Weather radio please go to Krogers and buy one they have the best and $30.00 is nothing for your family’s saftey
Thanks firefighter!
I agree…I have been posting this all morning on facebook. People just don’t get it…I get made fun of for watching the weather, but I don’t care…I would rather be prepared.
I am advocating that for both of my daughters, since they are both out on their own now. We have one, and it has been a welcome friend! especially in the middle of the night, when you are asleep, and have no idea waht is going on.
Light rain and lightning and thuunder here now. wind has really picked up! NO watches or warnings of any kind here at the moment.
firefighter, I agree with you 100%. that would be one of the best wedding gifts you could buy someone. Ours has given us more than one ‘heads up’ on severe weather.
I think everyone gets ‘too worked up’ over this, gets everyone (and themselves) in a bad-ass mood, and nothing gets ‘accomplished” for the better of the Wx Blog…??! 🙂
For what my opinion is worth (not much, but I’m trying!);
WxMan- Your input is greatly appreciated. I don’t always agree w/ you, but, hey, isn’t that what makes life fun?! Having NOT been through, however,WATCHED the April 3, ’74 tornado as it cruised across Nelson Co., killing my cousin, worrying about my Mom coming home from work during it, etc, having to take med’s every Spring/Summer so I don’t go into a “fit”…(for the next 30 yrs..);laugh all you want, it’s not a bit damned FUNNY. I am a snowstorm lover @ heart-I’m with bob on THIS one…sorry, folks! He’s RIGHT.
On the OTHER HAND, however…?? I don’t mind a good thunderstorm…like most, I believe?! AND…to be quite honest..I am much like “Jo” in “Twister”- I WOULD like to SEE one…I’d go on a storm-chasing trip in a heartbeat if I had the cash flow that allowed it…BUT!- “wishing” for severe Wx/Tornadoes is extremely SICK IMO…sure…wish all ya’ WANT for the Plains, etc..where all the farms, people, towns, etc etc, are few and far between and the chance of being hit directly is almost nil…just don’t wish it on a populated area, no matter how your fantasies of the “BIGGIN'” come about. (Somehow, and forgive me for saying this out-right, but, MY imagination leads me to believe that you’d not care one way or the other-long as you had “something” to “tell the STORY”…??!) I’d pretty much rather be able to sit here and give a ‘head’s up’ to ppl w/o fear for my/my loved one’s safety than WISH for damage/destruction/loss of life…hopefully PREVENTING the aforementioned, if at all possible.:)
Heavy wind gusts and light rain in Jessamine Co.
Nasty looking bow echo approaching roaring through S Central KY. Most danger, IMO, is in that bow. Should stay south of Lexington!