Good Friday everyone and thanks for dropping in on the blog. The signs are all pointing toward a possible significant severe weather outbreak across the state Saturday into Saturday night. The setup is actually one that could become memorable for parts of the Mississippi River Valley into the lower Ohio Valley.
This storm has already produced the most active weather day of the spring on Thursday and the severe weather hits will come fast and furious once again today for areas just to our west. For us… today will see a warm front swinging northward through the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms firing along this front. You can track today’s action here…
As mentioned… the thrust of the severe weather will be to our west today. Here is the latest on today’s severe threat from the Storm Prediction Center…
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue around here tonight into very early Saturday. Heavy rains will be possible from these storms and there is a low risk that a few of these could become strong or severe.
Skies will try to clear out for a while Saturday ahead of low pressure developing to our southwest. The more sun we can get into… the higher the threat for a significant severe weather outbreak will be later in the day as our instability increases. The low to our southwest will RAPIDLY strengthen as it rolls northeastward across the western Ohio Valley. A major outbreak of severe weather is very possible along and just ahead of the track of this low. Here is a map to better illustrate the track…
Clusters thunderstorms will develop across the lower Mississippi Valley and ride northeastward into the area by later Saturday into Saturday evening. I have highlighted the area most at risk for severe weather…
Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will be possible in the area under the threat. The highest risk is the area I expect to experience the brunt of the severe weather. As a matter of fact… some areas within the highest risk have the potential to see the development of strong tornadoes!
In addition to the possible severe weather… torrential rains will be likely for for much of the risk area and this may lead to some flash flooding concerns. This will have to be watched very closely as well as some of the models are spitting out a tremendous amount of rain in a short amount of time for some.
This will be a weekend to make sure you are locked in on the severe weather threat and this blog will keep you updated as always. I will update things later today so make sure you check back. Have a great Friday and take care.
There is some talk about storms in MS and TN that will reduce chances of severe in KY, even with all the shear and strong jet sunshine, high dewpoints, warm air and cold front to trigger how will the southern storms still affect ky storms?
Not liking your forecast Chris! I hate severe weather season!
SPC has drawn the Moderate Risk area across south-central KY, including Bowling Green. The hatched area, delineating “Significant Severe Weather” includes Lexington and Frankfort. IF we see a lot of convection in Tennessee, it will rob our moisture, however. So let’s hope TN doesn’t get much development tomorrow!!
So, you are hoping for “Significant Severe Weather”? That’s a very irresponsible thing for a “meteorologist” to say.
Yes, I hope it storms like ****.
And no, it’s not irresponsible whatsoever, because without HAVING severe weather, we cannot study and LEARN about severe weather to protect folks like yourself. Many of the technologies we have today are a result of the Super Outbreak of 1974.
no lets hope that TN gets tons of development not everybody wants a F5 tornado in their backyard every day like you brother
Thanks for the heads-up, Chris. I’m a bit concerned but glad to finally see some rain around here.
Here’s hoping the tornado takes your house instead of mine!
Yeah, I don’t see how anyone can hope for a severe outbreak. I don’t want to lose a loved one or my house, so heres hoping its just plain rain. This is one time I hope youre wrong Chris!!
I come to this site to get educated on the weather and I appreciate any info offered. It is true that without the severe weather we have nothing to learn with. I don’t think he was implying that he hoped someone lost thier house or life. Don’t be so defensive and try to look at it from a different point of view. It’s his job to make sure we are safe and do the research to find ways to prevent loss of life and property.
Well..there’s plenty action in tornado alley to study….I don’t want to see it here!
Absolutely. We never wish for loss of life or property. In fact, the NWS uses this as their mission statement. “To protect life and property”.
Severe weather is a fact of life in the U.S. So are sicknesses, illness, and various diseases. Life is full of bad things. You use those bad things to continue learning about them and how to mitigate them.
The thrill of the chase is a secondary benefit to those of us who love the power of weather. So please…let’s don’t continue rehashing this “Oh my! You are actually hoping for bad weather?” stuff again this year. It got really old last year.
I see that studying severe weather is beneficial, but I do find it irresponsible for someone to hope it storms like —-. No one should wish for severe weather. If we get severe weather, OK, let’s study, learn, and move on. But to hope for severe weather, come on.
I don’t see how anyone can wish for tons of snow, and yet they do. It makes roads dangerous, it can result in death of people and animals and property damage as well. Don’t see those people getting bashed for their opinions though.
I understand where you are coming from, WXMan, as I feel the same way during Hurricane Season. I would never wish for the devastation that can come from such circumstances to fall upon anyone, but am fascinated by their development and welcome the opportunity to learn more about them. It is the same way with severe weather…AND with snow storms!
Jeff, there hasn’t been plenty of action in “Tornado Alley” this year. Severe Weather season is off to an extremely late start this year. Prior to this year, the latest start was in 2005. And we all know how 2005 ended up being as far as severe weather AND hurricanes…Now I’m not stating that this year will be as bad, nor even “wish-casting” that to happen…just something to keep in mind as Spring & Summer play out.
Fine….then perhaps we should choose words more careully! RE:”So let’s hope TN doesn’t get much development tomorrow!!”
And I would be fine if severe weather season never started!
This is going to be a major severe weather outbreak for a good chunk of the country. I’ll be posting my thoughts in a little more detail a bit later. Western and portions of central KY seem to be at greater risk than eastern KY at this point.
good to see ya Shane
Thanks, Shane. I’ll be looking forward to reading your thoughts on this when you get a chance to share them!
How about everyone laying off WXman. He is commenting from the scientific point of view and by no means wishes anyone ill will.
Geez Andy. People die on amusement park rides every year. But go to a park any day of the week and it’s packed full. Why is that? Maybe it’s the excitement? The thrill? Should we wish for all roller coaster parks to be closed? I mean, seriously. If someone says “I hope that ride is fast and whips us around good!” does that also mean they hope somebody dies on it? Geez people…lighten up.
Agreed with WendyT. Some of these people bashing WXMan probably rooted for a huge snow themselves, LOL!
my point is you want everybody to wish for severe weather and just like not everybody should hope for winter weather they should be asked to hope for severe weather either anything they are not comfortable dealing with not everybody is excited about severe weather like you or winter weather like some others. IF people want to see severe weather they they should hope for TN to see alot of development. Although severe weather holds excitement for some not everybody should “HOPE” that TN doesn’t get much development just the ones like yourself that want severe weather
SO TRUE. MOST PEOPLE JUST DON’T GET IT. WXMAN JUST STATED HIS OWN OPINION. ITS AMAZING HOW PEOPLE JUST FLEW OFF THE HANDLE AT 1 COMMENT. SOME VIEWERS OF THIS BLOG DON’T HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO DO THAN STIR UP CONTROVERSY…
True, people die on amusement park rides, in cars, on icy roads every year. For the majority though, it is the individuals choice to go on the ice, on the ride, etc. No one has a choice for severe weather damaging their home or taking their life. Taking shelter in a closet with my two small children and wife is not a thrill. IMO, hoping for it to “storm like ****” is uncalled for. Like I said earlier, if you want to study these storms, that is fine. If they occur, study them, but don’t wish for these disasters to occur.
Give it a break already Jeff…..Geesh!!!
http://yourlondonkyweather.blogspot.com/2010/04/severe-weather-possible-saturday.html My thoughts on the severe weather potential for tomorrow.
Quick break: The worst of the severe weather stays west of I-75. East of I-75 will likely see severe weather but shouldn’t be as widespread or strong as what our friends out to the west will see. Main concerns are damaging winds, large hail, and some tornadoes. I think the majority of the torandic activity is back west of I-65, but we will wait and see on that. Definitely a day you want to pay attention to the weather tomorrow as things can rapidly develop, especially tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Just looked at the WRF model. In the LEX area, it’s predicting a max Lifted Index around -3, CAPE around 750 joules per kilogram tomorrow. Impressive, but not off the charts by any means. It appears there will be two waves of storms. The second wave will likely be the strongest, and should occur in early evening. I think this will mainly affect southern and southeastern KY. Louisville and Cincy probably won’t see the brunt of this system.
London maxes out around 1000 joules of CAPE, so enough to get me concerned but not as concerned as far south. Definitely a lot of shear though… I could see some short lived spin-ups in southern and eastern KY. Probably not as bad as what they will see down in the deep south tomorrow.
Want to see some cool stuff? Click the link on my name. It’s to TornadoVideos website. they stream live dash-cam footage during the chases. They have about 6 vehicles active right now. Just click on a vehicle on the map to see it’s live dash-cam.
I love that site, Richard! They usually have amazing footage during some of their chases!
Hey wake up people this is a weather blog. Just like people in the winter time want there to be 2 ft of snow on the ground, people marvel at mother nature at her worst during this time of year. Im personally sick and tired of people having a cow over simple words. People need to wake up and realize that mother nature will do what its gonna do with or with out your or my wishes. There is no need to wish for severe weather just like there is no need to chastize those who do. If people like to see severe weather then they should feel free to express so after all this a WEATHER blog. If there wasnt significant weather to talk about then it would just be Facebook or Myspace.
I will be sure to do my best to take pictures and videos. This set up kinda reminds me of Memorial Day weekend 2004. I remember that day like it was yesterday just as Chris and TG were on air working hard for 14 or so hours straight I was on the road doing storm spotting. I logged over 200 miles that day and never left Estill County. we were under like 3 or 4 separate Tornado warnings. Im not gonna lie, I was hoping to see one drop from the sky but Im glad none did.
Pal, you got old way before last year. I apologize. I hope you get everything you want and more, right on top of your house.
Dang people are touchy.. everyone is entitled to their own opinion here. LIGHTEN UP.
Yeah it’s hilarious. They come to a weather blog, then complain when people are excited about storms. What the heck do these fools expect?? Are we supposed to just talk UK basketball all the time?
Dude no one likes comments like this especially by someone lacking the gumption to put your name by your comment. if your comment isnt worth you putting your name beside it then it isnt worth putting on this blog. it just doesnt serve your opinion by it being nameless. Although I have my suspicions about who it is but hey Im not naming names lol
Well, I personally hope it “storms like ****”, just like I hope it snows like **** in the winter, because im a weather nut!
I’m here, on a weather blog, to converse about weather. Whether you like the weather or not… We should all just discuss the storm and not put down anyone’s opinion.
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