Good Sunday, everyone. A VERY early season taste of winter pushed into the region this weekend with sleet reported across parts of northern and northeastern Kentucky. Yep… the 4th day of October produced sleet less than 48 hours after temps were in the middle 80s. Pretty crazy, huh?

Now the pattern gets set to become super duper active with lots of rain chances coming our way.

Let’s start with today’s chilly weather. Things start out with a touch of frost and temps in the low and middle 30s. I wouldn’t be surprised to have a few locations reach the upper 20s.

Today’s Lows

Winds will likely prevent a widespread killing frost, but those same winds will make it feel even colder out there.

Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 50s to low 60s as clouds increase. A couple of showers will likely show up from northwest to southeast during the evening…

Current Temperatures

The showers and some thunderstorms will increase into Monday with steady rains developing Monday night into Tuesday. Some of the storms on Monday could be hail and high wind producers in the west and south. Heavy rainfall is a good bet through Tuesday with the higher totals in the southeastern part of the state…

GFS 2A shower or two will linger into Wednesday across the east as this system works off to our northeast. The next one will be right on its heels and could bring widespread heavy rain and thunder our way…

GFS 3

Look at the GFS rainfall numbers through next Saturday…

GFS 4That’s a lot of rain showing up and the other models agree we are in for a wet period. A seasonally chilly air mass moves in for the weekend…

GFS

That sets the stage for another massive amplification of the jet stream into the following week. That could send another big storm system our way with wind, rain, thunder and a big temp crash. The GFS is STILL trying to crank up something tropical in the Gulf…

GFS 5Such an amplified pattern can lead to early season flakes across this region of the world. This last system produced sleet for some, so it’s really not farfetched to think about.

Have a great Sunday and take care.