Good Wednesday, folks. We’re setting the stage for a MUCH colder weather pattern across much of the country in the coming weeks. The setup has the potential to unleash some nasty early season cold air masses. The process is starting in the coming days, but should really kick into high gear next week.
A cold front is crossing the state today and is bringing showers with it. Some locally heavy downpours are possible, especially in the south and east. Temps will stay in the 50s for highs…
Current Temperatures
Another cold front arrives Thursday with a few gusty showers. Temps may start in the 50s before falling through the 40s during the afternoon from west to east. This colder air may set the stage for a snowflake or two Thursday night into Friday morning.
That scoots away pretty quickly with highs in the 40s on Friday with an improving afternoon sky.
Yet another cold front surges in here Saturday afternoon with another band of showers and gusty winds. Temps will also drop quickly behind that boundary with upper 20s and low 30s and a few flurries by Sunday morning.
The main show continues to be the increasing threat for a MAJOR blast of arctic air next week. This sweeps in late Tuesday and sets the stage for the possibility of a memorable early season cold snap across the country. The GFS…
That introduces a prolonged period of very cold air. This run of the GFS gives us several days in a row with lows in the teens…
We have to watch for the potential of another arctic attack later this month or into early December. The CFS shows another healthy shot of cold during that time…
The same model runs throw some snow into the mix during the same time period…
Let the fun and games begin!
I will have more updates later today. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
Awesome to be starting so early.
Starting to hear the term “Polar Vortex” for next week’s frigid snap! If you look at the maps, you can’t tell me it’s not a displacement of the Polar Vortex yet again? This is going to be a looong winter… 🙂
CB, this seems to be another interesting winter season taking shape!! I’m hoping for some healthy snows to go with all that cold, lol!! 😀
Having lived through all the analog years you have mentioned, the winters here in my area of 62-63 and 76-77 were the worst in terms of snow and brutal cold. My sled sure got a lot of use and if we have a similar winter this year, I’ll get that sled out and hit the hills. I have a granddaughter who hasn’t seen a great deal of snow and I’m certain we can get some sledding going. Everyone had better get some good boots, gloves, and scarves and get ready if this winter is to be compared to some of the past big winters. Also, kerosene and fire wood would be good to have, just in case. Brrrrr.
Also winterize your car now if you haven’t yet – antifreeze, wipers, heating system, tune-up, and check over your home heating system. I was around for 76-77, and even though I was a kid, I remember all the reports of failed heating systems.
Too early. Give me some Indian summer. Shame on you with this forecast morning after the election. Lol
Yeah, it’s almost like yesterday put Mother Nature in a depressed mood for some reason.
anybody got rain total in the Manchester area? 6 inch snow or more before month is out….
Let the annual hype and subsequent disappointment cycle for KY winters begin lol ! 😉
Try to keep in mind this year, if a last call forecast – not a model – calls for a minimum amount of snow and that’s what you receive, then the forecast is successful. If it doesn’t meet the minimum, then it’s a bust. Pretty fair evaluation metric I’d think.
Last year was fantastic for certain counties as they usually received their forecast amount and then some, but for others it was a 50/50 split for success, and then for some a double digit result of misses during the entirety of winter. This year could be the same as last or it could be an entirely different animal.
“Trends” seems to be the touchstone of philosophy around here, so with that in mind I’d say that’s the safe level of expectation for everyone. If you’ve been frustrated with consistently busted results over the past few years, go ahead and expect more of the same. If you’re one of the snow 1%ers, and keep getting more than your share, go ahead and paint that smile on your face now for what’s coming. The rest of us will try, but fail, to hide our resentment in the comments here. Keep posting those snow pics from your homes, so the rest of us can stay warm with envy. 😉
Last chance.
Thanks Chris! Great news and I really enjoy the whole analog comparison and remembrances. Great bunch of posters.
Sorry to see the negative stuff already coming out in the comments.
But hey…” It takes all kinds to make a world”
I think I will start a betting line for how many “how dare you love snow! people die because of you!” comments we will see on the blog this winter. 😉
Think I am going to have to go out and buy a new pair of work boots….sounds like I am gonna need ’em to keep my feet warm! Thanks Chris for keeping us on top of things coming.
Upcoming temperature pattern starting to look a lot like last November here in Louisville…a prolonged period (7 consecutive days?) of 30’s and 40’s for highs and low 20’s for low temperatures. For the month, 12 days of low temperatures at or below 32 degrees and 1 day of high temperature at or below 32.
Well this has certainly been one dreary day.Non stop rain,although not that heavy it has been continuous.The highest I have seen on the thermometers here has been 48 degrees.Rain gauge is showing right at an inch.All this is coming a bit to soon for me but at least I know to get ready.Thankful to have lots of details before a situation is on top of us.
Model’s are getting interesting again…Hold on gonna be a fun ride…
The child in me loves snow and I love to see it cover everything, especially as we get close to Christmas. Can’t help it and don’t even want to curb my enthusiasm. Do I get disappointed if we get a forecast for one and it doesn’t happen? Not really….I know we will eventually get one and sometimes get one that wasn’t in the forecast. Sorry for all those who are snow and cold haters. Maybe global warming is for you. I follow Chris because his forecasts are the most accurate and because I think he likes snow maybe as much as I do. Let those flakes fly!
That is about the way I feel regarding the forecasts.I don’t get disappointed one way or the other but yes I get excited about snow on the way.Then on the flip side I hate it after about 3 days because I am stuck on this hill for at least a week or longer while others can come and go freely.
This page is the most detailed and accurate for my area that I have found.Yes sometimes its a bit off but what isn’t.Things change along the way that affect the outcome.
I love reading the page because of all the details that gets posted.That takes time and effort to gather all the information and I am very appreciative of it.