Good afternoon everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. Things are looking a little more interesting in terms of snow later this week across much of central and eastern Kentucky. Some of the models are coming around to a closer to the coast solution for the east coast blizzard. This would in turn mean more moisture be able to work into our part of the world and could lead to a prolonged snowy period once again.
The GFS and it’s Ensembles are leading the charge for a farther west track of the east coast blizzard. Here is the latest GFS..
Wednesday Evening
Thursday Morning
Thursday Evening
That is an historic blizzard for parts of the northern mid atlantic states into much of the northeast. What that track does for us is to bring accumulating snows to us with the upper level low Wednesday night and Thursday. It also throws moisture all the way back into the Ohio Valley to combine with a strong northwest wind flow to increase snow showers and squalls through Friday and likely into the start of the weekend. This too can add to the snow totals. Speaking of… here is what the GFS shows in terms of snowfall..
The GFS Ensembles are even more aggressive in terms of the amount of moisture being thrown back into our region…
That is actually pretty impressive and would mean several inches of snow for a lot of the region. Check out the amount of precip expected across the northeast! Wow!! Like I said… they will measure the snow in feet in many areas up there.
Something else to keep in mind around here is that winds will be very gusty from Wednesday night through Friday meaning blowing and drifting snow would be an issue.
By the way… our friend the CRAS Model continues to hold fast with a farther west and south solution for the east coast blizzard…
Friday Morning
While it is likely wrong… it is worth noting it is holding it’s ground with each run and that a few of the models made a SLIGHT trend in that direction.
I will update things as needed so check back. Take care.
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In previous post you talked about if the snowstorm in the east held on into later weekend, that would not hold good news for a storm to come in KY for early next week, Is this what you still think?
Ran into some sleet here in Versailles on the way to grab lunch.
Chris, the next few days are looking more and more interesting.
In my area SE KY even The Weather Channel is calling for a couple inches wow lol.What a dreary wet day good day to read a book,since my hubby didn’t make me work today lol.
If more than an inch accumulates over the next week at my residence I will really be surprised.
Snowy weather ongoing again in Tx and Louisiana.
ROCK the CRAS-bah…ROCK the CRAS-bah..
LOL.
ROCK..ROCK…ROCK.. Come on 1 more thumper please.. okay Rolo rock! I’m with you
ps first time poster long time reader
love u guys and CB
oh brother, here we go again…another week of snowshowers,squalls,temps. stuck in the 20’s …SALTY ROADS, NO SCHOOL AGAIN!!! DO I NEED TO GO ON!!…LOL…SOMEONE SHOOT THAT STUPID GROUNDHOG!!!!!!!!….LOL…LOL….
PUT OUT A WARRANT FOR BLUEGRASS BUBBA’S ARREST!!…..:)
WOW!! That must have been the dark-sided Tim…LOL…we all know Tim loves winter weather and snow…how could he ever be acting out this way…LOL..LOL…
oh and on a school note, Knox co. schools as of to date have missed an unbelievable 28 days !!!…Gonna be a short summer vacation for a lot of kids down here…
Winter Storm Watches posted for Lee, and wise county in Va. bordering Bell, and harlan Counties in south east ky…
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/
Sounds like we might possible get some more snow. Clay County has missed 25 days of school. We are planning on going two Sat. so far and no spring break which puts the kids at June 4 but we got to get through thissystem. Is it possible for this storm to move a little more down our way?
wish it was spring! Our kids will be going to school all summer in Knox Co.
Let it snow!!!!!!!!
Chris just said from wed night till Friday or Sat 4-8 inches total for Pike county
Chris just said on WSAZ 4-8 inches TOTAL from weds night till sat am for Pike county.
I hate moderation lol
Chris just said 4-8 total till sat for Pike
Crystal, what did he give for morgan co?
folks i cant believe the blog this quiet, the fact is this baby going to trend more and more to the SNOWSIDE FOR ESPECIALLY SE/E KY.WOOOOOOOOOOOO
Does anyone think that this East coast low has a chance of trending a bit more inland? If it does, it is going to spell serious snowstorm for E/SE KY. Latest models have been bringin it closer and closer to the vicinity. Fingers crossed for a doozey. Anyone got any comments.
Marsha dont hold me to it but I think it was 1-3 inches.He said total through friday night,and just first call.
This looks like a 1998 setup to me…
Marsha 1-3 total
This is one system where we should be thankful we are being missed, since if things hold as constant, they will get a “snowicane”. This could be a kick em’ when they are down event with power out for weeks for some. Imagine something like that in this region, where less metro areas are (less money). We would be shrewed’ for a looong time.
Sometimes missing the main snow system is GOOD 🙂
I always read, just don’t post as often as I used to, Rolo. I agree with you about the storm leaning more this way,
and I think CB is onto something, too. He has mentioned the CRAS model several times
although he isn’t endorsing it, but he must see some potential because of the other models leaning that way;
he doesn’t just mention things like that without a reason.
cmon TIM,ANDY, WERE SHANE!!! OUR LOCAL REAL WEATHER GUY, GET IN ON IT AND LEWT US KNOW UR THOUGHTS.
Come on guys talk it up – we need to put on our rally caps to get one last (or maybe two) good one before even I turn my heart to spring and opening day.
What’s on the horizon – I know about this one we have right now and next week (Mon – Wed?) we have another chance. Anything after that or should I begin looking for a Reds blog somewhere?
I’m hoping if I ignore it , that it will go away and the sun and 60 will appear again…LOL…:)
I dont know about Andy, he is floating around somewhere, I passed him on the road the other day..
As for Shane, I think I saw him on a commercial for the Hawaiian Islands, sitting under a tiki hut sippin on a drink with a pink umbrella in it…LOL..LOL…
I’m hoping if I ignore it, it will go away and sunshine and 60 will return…lol
I don’t know about Andy, but I did pass him on the road yesterday…
As for Shane, I think I saw him on a commercial, advertising the Hawaiian Islands, he was sitting under a Tiki hut, sipping on a drink with a pink umbrella in it…LOL….
moderation!!!
Lets try this again, since it been moderation night…
I’m trying to ignore it, and maybe it will go away and sunshine and 60 will return…lol
as far as Andy and Shane, I passed andy on the road yesterday, he looked mesmerized…
And Shane I think I saw on a commercial for the Hawaiian Islands , yep he was sitting under a Tiki hut sipping on a drink with a pink umbrella in it…LOL..LOL..LOl…:)
Im hoping if I ignore it, it will go away…lol
Andy was driving down the road mesmerized yesterday. And Shane I saw on a commercial for the Hawaiian Islands,yep he was sitting under a Tiki Hut sipping on a drink with a pink umbrella in it…LOL..
As nice as one more thumpin’ snow storm would be…I also would not mind the latest GFS solution which shows slowly moderating temperatures back to normal going into March with rain and t-storms by the second week.
I would love if it did… One reason I haven’t checked this as much is because once again the big snow is going to the East Coast. I know the last model posted is not a trusted model, but boy, that one is NICE. 🙂
by the middle of the march the AO is almost postive again with a postive EPO a very mild stretch is coming from mid march into apr-may.
Gee thanks Tim! That’s just what I needed to hear! 🙂
I still think this looks like 1998 setup:
cold air in place – check
el nino winter – check
big ol low sitting and spinning off the coast of VA – check
NOBODY talking about it – check
when local mets do start talking, they say, “oh, a dusting to an inch or so” – check
….just saying
oh yeah….
big ol low sitting and spinning starts throwing back snow from southern storm all the way to IN/IL/KY – check!
🙂
You all in east KY have a decent shot for about 8″ if it moves more west. For the snow to be more than a few inches for central or west, it would take a mega chunga shift west. That would mean the east part of state would be buried for a while.
I would not worry about this- That is unless the CRAS-man has his waaaay! 😉
CB mentioned the model. Snow baiter! 😉
the surface map of the 00z gfs tells me one thing (a miss for mon-wed) the 500 mb level map of this run tells me something else a bit more intresting. the gfs still needs another day to sniff it out.
That’s what I’m talking about – GO REDS!!!
Welcome keep those post coming.
I like your thinking!! sounds pretty right on to me!!
Just for future reference.
1149 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010
…ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON…
A POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL THEN BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE REGION…CONTINUING THE COLD AND
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT…WITH
AN INCH OR TWO LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE
75…ACCUMULATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY…WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY BY THURSDAY
EVENING ABOVE 2000 FEET ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO…LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION…VISIT OUR
INTERNET WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.