Good Monday everyone and welcome to the last week of February. We are coming off an awesome weather weekend that really got my spring juices flowing. Sunshine boosted temps up to near 60 in many areas on Sunday giving us the nicest weather day of the year. All of that is about to become a distant memory as old man winter comes roaring back this week and locks in for the first few weeks of March.

The change back to winter starts today as low pressure works into the Ohio Valley. Showers will continue to be on and off today but should not put down a lot of water. Highs will run in the 40s with colder air slowly pouring back in by late in the day. This will set the stage for a few flurries and snow showers tonight and Tuesday as highs return to the 30s.

This will bring us into what is shaping up to be yet another very wintry period around here for the middle and end of the week. A deep closed off upper level low will be diving into the area by Wednesday. You can see what I am talking about here…

NAM Wednesday Night


This happens as a major storm develops and slams into the upper mid atlantic and new england states…

Wednesday Evening


Thursday Morning


Thursday Night



The strong upper level low cruising through here Wednesday and Thursday will be enough to cause widespread snow showers ands squalls. Then we have to watch the big storm across the northeast as the wraparound/northwesterly wind snows may actually reach all the way back into our part of the world to add to our chances of putting snow on the ground.

Here is what the last model run “thinks” the snow on the ground will look like through Friday…



That is LIKELY going to be underdone around here because the models often struggle with precipitation amounts associated with such a stout upper level system.

The other big players from Wednesday through Friday will be the cold temps and the winds. Highs may not get out of the 20s for a few days as winds crank up. If we do get snow on the ground later this week… some more blowing and drifting could become a problem.

A few of the models are getting oh so close to developing this northeast storm much farther south as we get our two branches of the jet stream to phase a bit sooner. The little used (probably for good reason) CRAS Model is suggesting something like this…

Thursday Morning


This will be fun to watch unfold this week. Regardless of how much of an impact it has around here… the moral of the story is winter is not even close to being over.

Don’t believe me? Well… readers of the blog know that almost a week ago I highlighted the end of February into the first week of March as being a period where some big eastern storms would be possible. This week’s system is going straight toward that thinking… but the one next week is the main one that I have had my eyes on. The pattern next week is more than ripe for something big to come out of the south and head inland up the east coast.

Take a look at some of the modeling for early next week…

GFS Ensembles


Keep in mind that is the “average” of what 25 different runs of the model are showing so it is smoothed out. Regardless… from a week away, that is a very good signal for a big storm.

The European Model is all over it as well as the Canadian…



Get your popcorn ready as winter’s closing act may be ready to bring down the house over the next few weeks. I will have more updates as needed today so make sure you check back.

Have a great Monday and take care.