Good afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the next storm that will be rolling our way by early next week. The models will continue to waffle a little bit and that is to be expected. I am liking the solution that brings one low into the Ohio Valley before giving up to another low pressure across the mid atlantic states.
The Canadian model is showing this scenario quite nicely…
Those maps run from Monday evening through Wednesday morning. That would bring a wintry mix and rain to us Sunday night and early Monday before a quick transition to snow as very cold air slams in here later in the day Monday. Wraparound snows and snow showers would then be likely for a few days.
Speaking of the cold… take a look at the core of the cold at 850mb from the new GFS Ensembles for days 6-10…
That is some serious cold air showing up for the end of February! As I have said… this same cold and snowy pattern is likely to carry us right on into the first half of March.
I will update things as needed. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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Thanks for the update, Chris!!!
I am very interested in meteorology, but like most, am a novice at understanding the technical terms. What exactly is the GFS/NAM, what do they measure, and how do you read them/what do they tell us?
They are comp. forecasting models. They run four times a day. Go to this site http://coolwx.com/ptype/
Thanks Chris for the update!
The new models are trending for a colder solution. JMA puts nearly 2 feet of snow near Owensboro. Doubtful but just saying..
Thanks for the update, Chris. I sure do wish that cold air would get here sooner…we would get a boatload of the white stuff. Oh well, I guess I’ll get ready for the rain.
Ohh forgot about the reliable EURO.. its went colder as well, the last 2 runs.. it looks really similiar to the JMA (ATM) the newer one later today may flipflop! 😉
The Canadian GEM says “BLIZZARD” statewide. Puts more emphasis on 2 lows, the weaker low will give way to a Nor’easter up the coast as Chris mentioned above.
Don’t you love it when the ensemble shows the core of cold over us, and the op. GFS shows us trending warmer as we go into March? 😉 Total headache…
Beautiful Sunshine and 35 degree temps have erased almost all of the snowpack here. The ground is the barest its been here in two weeks.
Mercer/Anderson County Line
yeah….
the Canadian gem is really showing some good snow in here……. and ice……
http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_102HR.gif
http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_108HR.gif
that is some good snow.
this part would be the blizzard….
http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_114HR.gif
If it is going to snow let it get in and out of here…. Soccer starts in less then a month……
the national weather service in louisville is already saying its going to rain. i think it might be just a little too early to be stating that.
So this may be a long shot but I’m reallu hoping for a southward and colder trend on the next couple rounds of models…it could happen!
Wake me in April. I have had it. I am ready for 80’s..let’s skip spring and go straight to summer!!
Followed this blog for awhile now, but this is my first post. I live in Southern Indiana, near Louisville, and I have followed John Belski’s blog for a long time. Today he put up a post that made it sound like winter was done. I love snow, so I did not like to hear that. I come here and CB is making it sound like we will have plenty of chances for snow. Why are their opinions for snow so differing? I just feel confused now, lol.
I saw that too and was wondering the same thing, that has turned into a snow morgue.
I meant that place has turned into a snow morgue. We need an edit option.
Not sure why they would have a difference. Been following Chris for a long time he is very very good at forcasting winter events. I have also followed Belski a little seems to be pretty good also. Both of them definatly love winter events.
ok give me snow and i will be happy give me rain i am content give me ice……i will scream….lol:)
This is an interesting situation! Belski calls the weather with great integrity, like Chris, but the blogs are diverging on the upcoming patterns big time. I love the phrase ‘snow morgue’!…where winter came to die….
well OLD SCHOOL is in the air folks, a mid to late feb storm,,, now more than liley will seen rain and mix for alot,
but
what if the LOW that going be dying out was to become CUTOFF and as the BIOG LOW on coast pop it feeds off of its moisture.
now maybe SHANE or Mitch or CB could discribe the type of setup I talk bout in a post that sound better, we havnt had a cutoff low big storm in yearrrrsss and yearsssssssssssss.
At the beginning of the this week the model projection especiallly the euro were positive. then between runs yesterday there was 500 mile shift (euro). Now all the models are going to the north or to far to the south. I know there is some doom & gloom in Lou about next Thurs. event. But after looking at the 12z gfs. ALL we need is a 250 mile shift north. Hell, the euro and all the other models made shifts of over 250 miles yesterday. KEEP THE HOPE ALIVE!
Your right, it could! Let’s think positive! We need one more good one before we go down…….>!
i don’t know about you all, but i’m ready for severe weather season. i just want one more BIG snow.
I NEED HELP! My son’s homework question is “What tool is used to measure how much more rain is needed to end the drought?” Any help would be appreciated!
So it sounds like southeastern Ky will probabaly get rain Sun. into Mon. morning, which is potential for more flooding for us. Then a change over from rain to snow sometime Monday evening. Guys, does this seem right? and then maybe snow into WED. and very very cold temps. Does this some it up or could this cold air get here first and it be the BIG one?
Wow, this one looks to be a line rider -.-
I think that SE ky gets the short end of the stick this time, some people at ekywx.com were talking about the snowdome moving east lol
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East Kentucky WX
http://www.ekywx.com
Why do a lot of people bash WXman on this site? I like to read his thoughts on the weather as I am right on the other side of Tyrone in Woodford county. He is usually right on with his thoughts and has often gotten my area of the state closer than what CB has called for. I am not saying WXman is perfect but he has had a lot of training in weather whereas many of us just click the links in the comments section an try to give a forecast. Keep up the good work WXman. Also, CB keep the good work up too, you have nailed this winter so far. Keep it up guys.
the 00z gfs set-up for next week reminds me of the first week of decemeber a warm low tracks overhead with the rain a second low brings another snow band further southeast with an east coast low. The models did not pick up on the secondary low untill 3-5 days out.
by the way the euro shows all rain and is not a colder solution for monday. not to many places will see snow with this storm say detroit or chicago and that’s a 3-6 event for them.
rain to flurries.
Pullin for the GFS then!!! Bring on spring!!!
I am so done with this winter… I hate having to leave my car 3 tenths of a mile away just so I can make it to the main road when it snows. Also all the cloudy days have taken a toll on me lol I feel like a plant and need the sunshine and warmth.