Good Thursday to one and all. We are entering a small break from winter around here… and when I say small… I mean small. This little break is only good for a couple of days before the pattern cranks up this weekend into next week and delivers more snow chances and cold weather to the bluegrass state.

Let’s start with the weather today before we look ahead. The eastern areas will still see the chance for a few snow showers and flurries… especially early on. Central and western parts of the state will see some sunshine returning and this will boost daytime highs well into the 30s in most cases. The same can be said for Friday as our big break from winter lasts for a whopping 2 days.

A weak disturbance will move through here later Friday night and Saturday with a burst of some light snows and flurries. This does not look like a big precip maker at all. Highs this weekend should continue to run in the 30s.

It is once we get into later Sunday that we will be turning our attention to the next storm to impact the region. The models have been all over the place of late and this is something we said to be watching for. The GFS in particular has jumped around a ton with recent runs… but it has been no different than the other models. The question is do we get one low cutting through the Ohio Valley before giving way to another low off the east coast or do we get one storm riding eastward through the Tennessee Valley toward the coast? The models are still trying to figure that one out and so am I.

I continue to be a fan of the GFS Ensembles… but they have even sputtered some over the past day or so. They are getting back to showing something similar to what they had been showing a few days back…



That implies snow and ice would be a decent player across the state from Sunday through Monday. The GFS had been blasting a low into the lakes but is now on the Tennessee Valley storm idea…

Sunday Evening


Sunday Night


Just for fun.. here is what it spits out for snowfall…


PLEASE do not take that map seriously!!!! The models will continue to go back and forth with this storm for a few more days before they all settle in on a solution.

There will be some VERY cold air coming in behind whatever track this low decides to take as that should start out another well below normal temp period around here to close out February and usher in March. Yes… there will be plenty of snow chances during that time.

I will have another update this afternoon. Until then… take care.